Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Tropical Storm Mario Forms Near Zihuatanejo

Tropical Storm Mario formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Zihuatanejo, Mexico on Friday morning.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 101.9°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Mario was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Zijuatanejo strengthened on Friday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Mario.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mario exhibited more organization on Friday morning.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Mario’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in short bands that were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Mario.  Storms near the center of Mario generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mario was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Mario’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Mario were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Mario will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mario will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mario’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Mario could also pull drier air over Mexico in the tropical storm.  The moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Mario could intensify during the next 24 hours if the center remains over the ocean.

Tropical Storm Mario will move around the around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Mario toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mario will move near the coast of Michoacan.

Tropical Storm Mario will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal parts of Michoacan.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Kiko Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Kiko weakened to a tropical storm over the Central Pacific Ocean northeast of Hawaii on Monday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 152.1°W which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) northeast of Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Hurricane Kiko weakened to a tropical storm over the Central Pacific Ocean northeast of Hawaii during Monday night.  An upper level low that is north of Hawaii produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Kiko’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Kiko to weaken to a tropical storm.

The strong upper level winds blew the tops off of most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Kiko.  A few thunderstorms remained in the far northeastern periphery of Kiko’s circulation.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kiko consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Since there were no thunderstorms near the center of Kiko to pump mass away, the surface pressure increased rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Kiko expanded a little as Kiko weakened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Kiko’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Kiko will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  However, the upper low north of Hawaii will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Kiko to continue to weaken.

Tropical Storm Kiko will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Central Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kiko will pass north of Hawaii.

 

Hurricane Kiko Weakens

Hurricane Kiko weakened east of Hawaii on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 145.5°W which put the center about 635 miles (1025 km) east of Hilo Hawaii. Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Hurricane Kiko weakened east of Hawaii on Sunday as it moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 26°C.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Kiko’s circulation, but low clouds were starting to appear inside the eye.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Kiko generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  However, more mass was converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere than was being pumped away in the upper levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Hurricane Kiko was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kiko’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kiko.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.3. Hurricane Kiko was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Kiko will move through an environment that will become even more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The water just to the north of Kiko’s forecast track is even colder. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of Hawaii.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kiko’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of marginal Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Kiko to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Kiko will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kiko will be northeast of Hawaii on Monday night.

Hurricane Kiko Crosses to Central Pacific

Hurricane Kiko officially crossed from the Eastern North Pacific to the Central Pacific Ocean on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 141.4°W which put the center about 935 miles (1500 km) east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Kiko was gradually weakening as it crossed into the Central Pacific on Saturday.  Even though Kiko was weakening, it remained a well organized major hurricane.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was still present at the center of Kiko’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Kiko.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper atmosphere was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing gradually.

The circulation around Hurricane Kiko was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Kiko’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kiko.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.1.  Hurricane Kiko was similar in size to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Kiko was stronger than Zeta was.

Hurricane Kiko will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The water just to the north of Kiko’s forecast track is even colder.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Kiko will move into a region of drier air.  The combination of marginal Sea Surface Temperatures and drier air will cause Hurricane Kiko to continue to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Kiko will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kiko be east of Hawaii on Sunday night.

Hurricane Kiko Churns Closer to Hawaii

Hurricane Kiko slowly churned closer to Hawaii on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 137.8°W which put the center about 1195 miles (1925 km) east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

After weakening briefly earlier on Friday Hurricane Kiko strengthened back to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was visible at the center of Kiko’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Kiko.  Storms near the center of Kiko generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Kiko was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Kiko’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Kiko.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Kiko was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.6.  Hurricane Kiko was similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Kiko was not as large as Harvey was.

Hurricane Kiko will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kiko is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Hurricane Kiko will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kiko will continue to move closer to Hawaii.

 

Lorena Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Lorena weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 114.2°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Former Hurricane Lorena weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday morning.  A upper level trough that is west of Baja California was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear was pushing the middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast of the surface circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Lorena consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended  out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  The upper level trough that is west of Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Lorena to weaken steadily during the next 24 hours.

The strong vertical wind shear is likely to separate the lower portion of Tropical Storm Lorena from the middle and upper parts of Lorena’s circulation.  The lower portion of Lorena’s circulation could meander west of Baja California.  The middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Lorena will be steered toward the northeast by the upper level trough that is west of Baja California.

The middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Lorena will move across Baja California, over Sonora, and toward New Mexico and southeastern Arizona.  The middle and upper parts of Lorena’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those areas.  The strongest winds will occur in mountainous regions.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Kiko continued to churn slowly toward Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 133.7°W which put the center about 1470 miles (2365 km) east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Hurricane Lorena Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Lorena was moving toward Baja California on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 113.2°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Sante Fe, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

Hurricane Lorena strengthened a little more on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  However, an eye was not visible on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Lorena’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Lorena.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is west of Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Lorena to weaken on Thursday.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The upper level trough that is west of Baja California will steer Lorena toward the northeast later on Thursday.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena will approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Hurricane Lorena will weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Baja California.  Lorena will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Baja California.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 132.3°W which put the center about 1560 miles (2510 km) east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Lorena Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Lorena intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Tuesday night.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of Baja California.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 111.1°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for a portion of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Lorena intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Lorena.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Lorena’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Lorena.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could intensify rapidly at times on Wednesday.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Lorena is expected to move toward the north on Thursday.  On it anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko continued to churn toward the west.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 130.1°W which put the center about 1700 miles (2735 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

 

Lorena Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Lorena prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened gradually on Tuesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.  Lorena is expected to move toward the northeast later this week.  Tropical Storm Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale far to the east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 128.9°W which put the center about 1775 miles (2855 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Lorena

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Baja California on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 345 miles (550 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena on Tuesday morning.  New thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Kiko intensified to a hurricane far to the east of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 128.3°W which put the center about 1815 miles (2920 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.