Monthly Archives: August 2020

Tropical Depression Fourteen Forms Over Western Caribbean

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 79.7°W which put it about 235 miles (375 km) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  The depression was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Honduras from the border with Nicaragua to Punta Castilla including the Bay Islands.

Satellite images on Thursday morning indicated that a center of circulation had developed within a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fourteen.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Fourteen was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and they were beginning to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen during the next day or two.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will move around the southwester part of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  The depression will turn toward the northwest on Friday when it gets closer to the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Fourteen will pass near the coast of Honduras on Friday.  It will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  The depression could drop heavy rain over eastern Honduras and flash floods will be possible.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean,, Tropical Depression Thirteen was speeding toward the northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 52.0°W which put it about 750 miles (1205 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla.

Hurricane Genevieve Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Genevieve brought wind and rain to southern Baja California on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Genevieve passed just southwest of the southern tip of Baja California on Thursday morning.  A weather station at the Cabo San Lucas Marina reported a wind gust of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  Bands of thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Baja California.  There were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Genevieve will weaken during the next several days as it moves over cooler water.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 26°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will weaken gradually as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.  Genevieve will continue to bring gusty winds to the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop move heavy rain and additional flash floods are likely.

Tropical Depression 13 Forms, Watch Issued for Saba and St. Eustatius

Tropical Depression Thirteen formed about 1000 miles (1600 km) east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 47.9°W which put it about 1035 miles (1670 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Saba and St. Eustatius.

A distinct center of circulation developed within a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Thirteen.  The circulation around the depression was still organizing.  Thunderstorms were building near the newly formed center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  The stronger thunderstorms were in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Thirteen will likely strengthen gradually at first while the circulation is organizing.  If an inner core develops, then the rate of intensification could increase.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Thirteen could approach the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

Genevieve Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

A potential close approach of Hurricane Genevieve prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the southern tip of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 109.7°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

Hurricane Genevieve continued to exhibit a well organized circulation.  A circular eye was present at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Genevieve.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating strong upper level divergence was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Genevieve.  Tropical Storm force winds extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.0.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment less favorable for a major hurricane during the next few days.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve is likely to weaken when the core starts to move over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of an ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will Genevieve toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Genevieve could be near the southern tip of Baja California in about 18 hours.  Genevieve will cause gusty winds over the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop locally heavy rain which could cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Higos Makes Landfall Near Macau

Tropical Storm Higos made landfall near Macau on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Higos was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 112.5°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west of Hong Kong.  Higos was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Higos made landfall on the coast of China just to the west of Macau on Tuesday night.  Higos intensified on Tuesday and an eye was beginning to form at the time of landfall.  A partial eyewall was on the southern side of the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the partial eyewall.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Higos.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Higos will weaken steadily as it moves inland over southern China.  Higos will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rainfall over parts of southern China.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Genevieve Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Genevieve rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 107.6°W which put it about 390 miles (630 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest a 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz and from Todos Santos to Sante Fe, Mexico.

Hurricane Genevieve continued to intensify rapidly during the past 24 hours and it reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Genevieve.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Genevieve.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

The circulation around Hurricane Genevieve increased in size during the past 24 hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment very favorable for strong hurricanes during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve could strengthen further during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could occur.  The eyewall replacement cycle would cause Hurricane Genevieve to weaken.

Hurricane Genevieve will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The high will steer Genevieve toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Genevieve will pass west of Baja California.  However, Genevieve could come close enough to the coast to bring tropical storm force winds and locally heavy rain to the southern portion of Baja California.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Higos Forms Southeast of Hong Kong

Tropical Storm Higos formed southeast of Hong Kong on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Higos was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 116.0°E which put it about 205 miles (335 km) southeast of Hong Kong.  Higos was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system southeast of Hong Kong on Monday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Higos.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Higos was organizing quickly.  Thunderstorms were developing around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Higos.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Higos will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 to 24 hours.  Higos will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Higos will continue to intensify and there is a chance it could strengthen into a typhoon before it makes landfall on the coast of China.

Tropical Storm Higos will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Higos toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Higos will make landfall on the coast of China west of Macau near Yangjiang.  Higos will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern China.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Genevieve Rapidly Intensifies into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Genevieve rapidly intensified into a hurricane southwest of Mexico on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 103.0°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) south-southwest of Zihuantanejo, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Genevieve rapidly intensified into a hurricane during the past 24 hours.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the center of circulation and an eye was forming at the center of Genevieve.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Genevieve.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Genevieve will move south of a ridge over high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Genevieve could be south of Baja California on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Genevieve Spins Up Quickly South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Genevieve spun up quickly south of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 99.2°W which put it about 410 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Twelve-E organized quickly on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Genevieve.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Genevieve.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Genevieve will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Genevieve will intensify rapidly.  Genevieve will strengthen into a hurricane within 24 hours and it could intensify into a major hurricane during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Genevieve will move around the southern side of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Genevieve could pass south of the Baja California during the middle of the week.

Tropical Storm Fausto Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Fausto developed southwest of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 119.6°W which put it about 640 miles (1020 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Tropical Depression Eleven-E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Fausto.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Fausto was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of thunderstorms.  Bands in the southern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern half of the circulation.  The wind in the southern half of the circulation was blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  An upper level trough west of Tropical Storm Fausto will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear which will also inhibit potential intensification.  Tropical Storm Faust is likely to weaken slowly when it moves over cooler water.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Fausto toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fausto will move away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Twelve-E spun up quickly south of Mexico and Tropical Depression Ten-E stalled between Mexico and Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 525 miles (850 km) southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E is forecast to intensify quickly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the next several days.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 134.0°W which put it about 1700 miles (2735 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.