Monthly Archives: September 2024

Watches and Warnings Issued for Yucatan and Western Cuba

A risk posed by a low pressure system over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Watches and Warnings for Yucatan and western Cuba on Monday morning.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center changed the designation of former Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on Monday morning.  The low pressure system still had a large asymmetrical circulation.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands developed in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the western side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to form into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

A reconnaissance plane is on its way to investigate Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move approach Yucatan and the western end of Cuba on Tuesday afternoon.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could be a hurricane when it reaches Yucatan and western Cuba.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to affect Florida on Thursday.  It is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Tropical Storm John Rapidly Intensifies South of Mexico

Tropical Storm John rapidly intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday morning.  A Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the coast of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm John was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 98.5°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  John was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Former Tropical Depression Ten-E rapidly intensified to Tropical Storm John on Monday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of John’s circulation and a small eye was forming at the center of Tropical Storm John.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm John.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm John was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of John’s circulation.

Tropical Storm John will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  John will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm John will intensify during the next 24 hours.  John is likely to strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm John will move around the southeastern part of a large counterclockwise circulation over southern Mexico sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The large counterclockwise circulation will steer John slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm John will approach the coast of Mexico on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm John is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico.  John will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of southern Mexico.  Very heavy rain is likely to fall in Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm John also could cause a storm surge of 8 feet (2,4 meters) along parts of the coast.

 

Low Pressure System Forms Over Western Caribbean Sea

A low pressure system formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Sunday.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Invest 97L.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 97L was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 92.8°W which put the center about 425 miles (690 km) southeast of Cozmel, Mexico.  The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system formed over the western Caribbean Sea northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Sunday.  Thunderstorms developed in the eastern side of the low pressure that was over the western Caribbean Sea.  Much of the western side of Invest 97L was over Honduras and Nicaragua.  Bands in the western side of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 97L will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Invest 97L The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Invest 97L is likely to form into a tropical depression or a tropical storm on Monday.

A reconnaissance plane is tentatively scheduled to investigated the low pressure system on Monday afternoon, if necessary.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 97L will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 97L toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday.  Invest 97L is likely to move into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week.

Depression Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Mexico

The formation of Tropical Depression Ten-E over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 98.7°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  The tropical depression was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Ten-E.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to revolve around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Ten-E is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression is likely to move very slowly toward the north on Monday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Ten-E will move a little closer to Mexico.

Tropical Depression Pulasan Moves Near Shanghai

Tropical Depression Pulasan moved near Shanghai on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Pulasan was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 121.6°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) south-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Pulasan was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Pulasan weakened to a tropical depression as it approached Shanghai on Thursday.  Pulasan brought gusty winds and heavy rain to the region around Shanghai.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Pulasan was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Pulasan’s circulation.  The bands in the southern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Pulasan will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Pulasan toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Pulasan will move north of Shanghai.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the area north of Shanghai during the next 12 hours.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Pulasan Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Okinawa

Tropical Storm Pulasan brought gusty winds and rain to Okinawa on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Pulasan was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 126.9°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north of Okinawa.  Pulasan was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Pulasan brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Okinawa on Wednesday.  A weather station in Oku, Japan reported 5.04 inches (128 mm) of rain.  A weather station in Yoronjima Island reported 3.66 inches (93 mm) of rain.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Pulasan was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Pulasan’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Tropical Storm Pulasan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Pulasan was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 320 miles (520 km) in the northwestern, northeastern and southeastern quadrants of Pulasan’s circulation.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Pulasan were blowing at less than tropical storm force,

Tropical Storm Pulasan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pulasan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern side of a large upper level low centered southeast of China.  The upper level low will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pulasan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Pulasan could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the wind shear does not get any stronger.  Pulasan will weaken if the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will move around the northern side of a large counterclockwise circulation southeast of China that is sometimes called a monsoon gyre.  The large counterclockwise circulation will steer Pulasan quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pulasan will be near Shanghai, China in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the region around Shanghai.  Flooding is still occurring from the recent passage of Typhoon Bebinca over the same area.  Additional heavy rain will make flooding worse.

 

Tropical Storm Pulasan Forms Southeast of Ryukyu Islands

Tropical Storm Pulasan formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of the Ryukyu Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Pulasan was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 137.8°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) south-southwest of Iwo To.  Pulasan was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Pulasan was very large, but there were not many thunderstorms present.  Bands revolving around the center of Pulasan’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the far eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Pulasan.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the far southern periphery of Pulasan’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Pulasan was very large, but the distribution of wind speeds was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) in the eastern side of Pulasan’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Pulasan were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pulasan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the eastern side of a large upper level low centered east of Taiwan.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pulasan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Pulasan could intensify a little during the next 24 hours if the wind shear does not get any stronger.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will move around the northern side of a large counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a monsoon gyre.  The large counterclockwise circulation will steer Pulasan quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pulasan will be near the Ryukyu Islands in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, former Typhoon Bebinca weakened to a tropical depression over eastern China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Bebinca was located at latitude 32.0°N and longitude 117.0°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) west of Nanjing, China.  Bebinca was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Low Pressure System Drops Heavy Rain on North Carolina

A low pressure system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight dropped heavy rain over parts of North Carolina on Monday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight was located at latitude 33.1°N and longitude 78.3°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina.  The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

A low pressure system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight dropped heavy rain over the area near Cape Fear, North Carolina.  Even though the center of circulation was still over the Atlantic Ocean, converging wind flows in the northern side of the low pressure system generated a band of persistent heavy rain.  Heavy rain fell over eastern South Carolina, and central and eastern North Carolina.  Widespread flooding was reported in Carolina Beach.

Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for Columbus County, Brunswick County and Bladen County.

The low pressure system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will move around the southwestern part of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of the low pressure system will move near the border between South Carolina and North Carolina.

The low pressure system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland.  Even though the low pressure system will weaken, it will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of North Carolina.  Persistent heavy rain is likely to cause additional flooding.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Gordon continued to spin east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 48.1°W which put the center about 985 miles (1580 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Gordon was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

 

Typhoon Bebinca Brings Wind and Rain to Shanghai

Typhoon Bebinca brought wind and rain to Shanghai on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bebinca located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 121.0°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) south-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Bebinca was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

The center of Typhoon Bebinca made landfall on the east coast of China just to the southeast of Shanghai on Sunday night.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Bebinca’s circulation at the time of landfall.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bebinca.

The circulation around Typhoon Bebinca was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bebinca’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Typhoon Bebinca.

Typhoon Bebinca will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Bebinca toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bebinca will move farther inland over eastern China.

Typhoon Bebinca will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the region of China near Shanghai.  Bebinca will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Jiangsu and Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bebinca could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast near Shanghai.  Bebinca will weaken as it moves inland, but heavy rain could fall over the region west of Shanghai.

Low Pressure System Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for the Carolinas

A potential risk posed by a low pressure system prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Carolinas.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 77.8°W which put the center about 140 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Charleston, South Carolina.

An extratropical cyclone off the coast of the Carolinas began to exhibit some characteristics of a tropical storm on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the low pressure system.  Bands of thunderstorms began to develop around the low pressure system.  However, the low pressure system was still close to a nearly stationary frontal system.  So, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the southern part of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds in Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern side of the low pressure system.  The winds in the southern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level low off the coast of the Southeast U.S.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight could make a transition to a tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours.  It could also intensify on Monday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will make landfall on the coast of South Carolina northeast of Charleston on Monday afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of South Carolina and North Carolina.  The strong winds could cause electricity outages.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight could cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of eastern South Carolina and North Carolina.  Waves will also cause erosion of beaches.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Gordon weakened to a tropical depression east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 46.1°W which put the center about 1115 miles (1790 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Gordon was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.