Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Hurricane Delta Nears Louisiana

Hurricane Delta neared the coast of Louisiana on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Delta was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 93.8°W which put it about 130 miles (215 km) south of Cameron, Louisiana.  Delta was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sargent to High Island Texas and from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.  The Tropical Storm Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Hurricane Delta started to weaken slowly on Friday morning as it moved into a less favorable environment.  An upper level trough over the south central U.S.  was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Delta.  Those winds were starting to increase the vertical wind shear.  They were also inhibiting upper level divergence to the south of the hurricane which was causing the surface pressure to increase.

Even though it was weakening, Hurricane Delta remained a formidable hurricane.  There was an eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) at the center of Delta.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving the core of Hurricane Delta were already dropping heavy rain over parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Hurricane Delta.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Delta was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4.  Hurricane Delta was capable of causing regional major damage.

The upper level trough over the south central U.S. will steer Hurricane Delta toward the north-northeast during the next 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Delta will make landfall on the coast of Louisiana east of Cameron in a few hours.  Hurricane Delta will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of the area around Lake Charles that were affected by Hurricane Laura a few weeks ago.  Only temporary repairs have been made to numerous structures.  So, wind and rain damage will be greater than they would have been if all buildings were still intact.  Hurricane Delta will also cause a storm surge of 9 to 12 feet (3 to 4 meters) along the coast.  Locally heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread power outages could also occur.

Delta Strengthens Back to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Delta strengthened back to a major hurricane on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Delta was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 93.4°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south of Cameron, Louisiana.  Delta was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sargent to High Island, Texas and from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Hurricane Delta strengthened steadily on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Delta.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Delta.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.

The circulation around Hurricane Delta increased in size on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Delta was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.3.  Delta was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Delta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Delta will continue to intensify in the short term and it could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Delta will move around the western end of a high pressure system on Friday.  The high will steer Delta toward the north.  An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will turn Delta toward the north-northeast on Friday afternoon.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Delta will make landfall on the coast of Louisiana late on Friday afternoon or on Friday evening.

Hurricane Delta could hit the same area southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana that was affected by Hurricane Laura.  Delta will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.  It could cause a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) along the coast.  A number of structures in the region have temporary blue tarps in place of permanent roofs.  Hurricane Delta could cause more than the usually expected wind and rain damage in areas affected by Hurricane Laura.  There are also likely to be widespread power outages in the area.

Typhoon Chan-hom Turns Toward Japan

Typhoon Chan-hom turned toward Japan on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 132.9°W which put it about 515 miles (825 km) south-southwest of Osaka, Japan.  Chan-hom was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Typhoon Chan-hom strengthened slowly on Wednesday.  An eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Chan-hom.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Chan-hom.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Chan-hom was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Chan-hom.

Typhoon Chan-hom will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chan-hom will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Typhoon Chan-hom.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  The wind shear will limit intensification, but Chan-hom could get stronger during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia will cause stronger southwesterly winds to blow toward Typhoon Chan-hom in a day or so.  Those winds will cause stronger vertical wind shear and they will cause Chan-hom to start to weaken.

Typhoon Chan-hom will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 48 hours.  The high will steer Chan-hom toward the north during that time period.  The upper trough over eastern Asia will turn Typhoon Chan-hom toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chan-hom will be southeast of Kyushu and south of Shikoku in about 48 hours.

Hurricane Delta Clips Northeast Yucatan, Watches Issued for U.S.

Hurricane Delta clipped the northeastern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning and watches were issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 a.m EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Delta was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west-southeast of Cabo Catoche, Mexico.  Delta was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico including Cozumel.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of coast from Punta Herrero to Tulum, Mexico and from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas and from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Hurricane Delta brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the island of Cozumel on Wednesday morning.  The center of Delta officially made landfall on the coast about 20 miles (30 km) south of Cancun, Mexico.  A weather station in Cancun reported a sustained wind speed of 84 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and a wind gust of 106 m.p.h. (170 km/h).

Hurricane Delta weakened during Tuesday night before it made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.  It appeared as though an eyewall replacement cycle occurred in Hurricane Delta.  The original small eyewall, which had a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) weakened.  Since the strongest winds were occurring in that eyewall, the wind speeds decreased when it weakened.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that a new, larger eye was developing at the center of Delta when it made landfall.

The eyewall replacement cycle also caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Delta to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Delta.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Delta was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size (Index (HWISI) was 28.0.  Delta was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Hurricane Delta will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge.  The upper level winds are weaker in that part of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Delta is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Delta on Friday.  Those winds winds cause more vertical wind shear and Delta will likely weaken when it approaches the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Delta will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Delta will move more toward the north on Thursday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  The upper level trough over the south central U.S. will turn Delta toward the north-northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Delta will approach the coast of Louisiana on Friday.  Delta could be near the threshold for a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Hurricane Delta will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Louisiana on Friday.  The wind will push water toward the coast.  A storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) could occur in some locations.

Delta Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Delta rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Delta was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 82.6°W which put it about 320 miles (520 km) east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Delta was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico including Cancun and Cozumel.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands, the Isle of Youth and Pinar del Rio, Cuba.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero to Tulum and from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for La Habana, Cuba.

Hurricane Delta rapidly intensified into a major hurricane on Tuesday morning.  A small eye with a diameter of six miles (10 km) was at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the core of Delta.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly which contributed to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Delta.

The circulation around Hurricane Delta was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Delta.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Delta was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.7.

Hurricane Delta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Delta is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours.  It could reach Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Delta will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  Hurricane Delta will move more toward the north on Thursday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Delta will reach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night.  Delta will bring damaging winds and locally heavy rain to area around Cancun and Cozumel.  Hurricane Delta will then move over the Gulf Mexico.  Delta could approach the coast of Louisiana on Friday night.  It could bring hurricane conditions to New Orleans on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Norbert Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Norbert developed southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 5: 00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 106.2°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The wind speed increased around a low pressure system southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Norbert.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Norbert.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing outside the center of Norbert.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Norbert was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  A large upper level trough extends from northern Mexico over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Norbert could strengthen if the shear is not too strong.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in a region where the steering currents are weak..  Norbert is not likely to move very much during the next several days.  If Tropical Storm Norbert remains in the same location for more than a day, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface.  That would limit the energy Norbert could extract from the ocean, and the tropical storm could weaken.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie continued to churn west away from Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 21.7°W and longitude 134.3°W which put it about 1560 miles (2510 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Delta Rapidly Strengthens into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Delta rapidly strengthened into a hurricane on Monday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Delta was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 79.6°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) south-southeast of Grand Cayman.  Delta was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Pinar del Rio, Cuba and for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico including Cancun and Cozumel.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for Isle of Youth and Artemisa, Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for La Habana, Cuba.

Delta strengthened from a tropical depression into a hurricane on Monday.  An elliptical eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Delta.  The eye was surrounded by ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Delta.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center o circulation.  Winds to tropical storm extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Delta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Delta will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a major hurricane within 24 hours.

Hurricane Delta will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Delta will be near Cancun and Cozumel in about 24 hours.  Delta could be a major hurricane at that time.  Hurricane Delta will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the high on Thursday.  Delta could approach the central Gulf Coast on Thursday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Gamma was weakening just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Gamma was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Delta Develops South of Jamaica

Former Tropical Depression Twentysix strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta south of Jamaica on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 65 miles east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and about 130 miles south of Negril, Jamaica.  Delta was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for La Habana, Cuba.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of former Tropical Depression Twentysix on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Delta.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Delta was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Delta.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase.

Tropical Storm Delta will move through an environment which will be very favorable for intensification.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  There will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Delta will intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday night.  Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, Delta could intensify rapidly.  There is a chance Tropical Storm Delta could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Delta will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Delta could reach the Cayman Islands on Monday night.  Delta could be near the western end of Cuba by Tuesday night and it is likely to be a hurricane at that time.  Delta could approach the central Gulf Coast on Thursday night.  It could be a major hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gamma weakened as it meandered north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strong southerly winds in the upper levels blew the top off of Tropical Storm Gamma on Sunday night.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the south-southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coat from Dzilam to Campeche, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Chan-hom Forms Southwest of Iwo To

Tropical Storm Chan-hom formed southwest of Iwo To on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 139.0°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southwest of Iwo To.  Chan-hom was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system southwest of Iwo To on Sunday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Chan-hom.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Chan-hom was still organizing.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation, but the distribution of storms was asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms were developing in bands in the southern half of the tropical storm.  Bands in the northern half of Chan-hom consisted mainly of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (165 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Chan-hom.  Winds in the other parts of Chan-hom were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Chan-hom will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Chan-hom will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move around the southern side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Chan-hom.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification but it will not be strong enough to prevent Chan-hom from intensifying.   Tropical Storm Chan-hom could strengthen into a typhoon within 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Chan-hom will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Chan-hom toward the northwest during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Chan-hom could approach the northern Ryukyu Islands and southwestern Japan by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Gamma Emerges over Southern Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Gamma emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Gamma emerged over the Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.  The circulation around Gamma was relatively intact after its passage over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  Thunderstorms persisted near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Gamma.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Gamma.

Tropical Storm Gamma will be in an environment that will become less favorable for intensification.  Gamma will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy to support intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Gamma will be under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over the Bahamas.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Gamma.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they could be strong enough to blow the upper part of Gamma north of the circulation in the lower levels.

Northward movement of Tropical Storm Gamma is likely to be blocked by a ridge which will form in the middle troposphere over the northern Gulf  of Mexico.  After it forms, that ridge is likely to steer Gamma slowly toward the west or west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gamma will move slowly toward the west-southwest and it will remain just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.