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Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido Nears Northern Madagascar

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido was nearing northern end of Madagascar on Thursday evening.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 51.7°E which put the center about 185 miles (295 km) east-northeast of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido was maintaining its intensity as it approached northern Madagascar on Thursday evening.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to  balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to start to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.  Chido is larger than Charley was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could weaken slowly during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels continues to exceed the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Chido will also weaken of the core of its circulation moves over northern Madagacar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will pass near the northern end of Madagascar in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.  Chido could cause major damage if the eyewall moves over the northern end of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Rapidly Intensifies to Threshold of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar during Wednesday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 54.0°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during Wednesday night.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido increased as Chido rapidly intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.5.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian made landfall in southwest Florida in 2022.  Chido is not quite as large as Ian was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.4°S and longitude 56.3°E which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday afternoon.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.3.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.5°S and longitude 57.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Chido’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Chido’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.2.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly made landfall in south Texas in 2008.  Chido is smaller than Dolly was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Chido could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

More vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bheki to weaken on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  It was no longer possible to detect an eye on satellite images of Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

There was still a large area of strong winds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 31.9.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit North Carolina  in 2016.  Bheki was bigger than Matthew was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will approach Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 69.7°E which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 45.4. Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017. Bheki was bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  An upper level trough will approach Bheki from the west.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level l winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass north of Rodrigues in two days..

Typhoon Man-yi Hits Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Man-yi hit Luzon on Sunday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 121.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) north of Baler, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

The center of Typhoon Man-yi made landfall on the east coast of Luzon near Baler on Sunday morning.  Man-yi was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Typhoon Man-yi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Man-yi’s circulation.

The circulation around Typhoon Man-yi was very symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Typhoon Man-yi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Man-yi was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.6. Typhoon Man-yi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will move across Luzon during the rest of today.

Typhoon Man-yi will also bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon. Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Man-yi could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Luzon.  Luzon has already been hit by a series of in recent weeks. Typhoon Man-yi is capable of causing regional severe damage.  Man-yi will seriously set back efforts to recover from the previous typhoons.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 71.4°E which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  A circular eye formed at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki increased on Saturday when Bheki intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 39.3.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Bheki was a little smaller than Rita was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move toward Rodrigues.

Typhoon Man-yi Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Man-yi intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 124.0°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Labo, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 921 mb.

Typhoon Man-yi intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane as it approached southeastern Luzon on Saturday.  The southwestern part of Man-yi’s eyewall passed over Catanduanes Island.

Typhoon Man-yi was very impressive on satellite images.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Man-yi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the typhoon in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Man-yi increased when Man-yi intensified.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Man-yi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Man-yi was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 52.6.  Typhoon Man-yi was similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Man-yi was bigger than Michael was.

Typhoon Man-yi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Man-yi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Man-yi could continue to intensify during the next few hours.  However, the fact that the southwestern part of Man-yi’s eyewall passed over Catanduanes Island could halt its intensification.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will reach southeastern Luzon in 12 hours.  The center of Man-yi’s circulation could make landfall northeast of Baler.

Typhoon Man-yi is already bringing destructive winds to Catanduanes Island.  Typhoon Man-yi will also bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Man-yi could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Luzon. Luzon has already been hit by a series of in recent weeks.  Typhoon Man-yi is capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.  Man-yi will seriously set back efforts to recover from the previous typhoons.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Usagi was still dropping heavy rain on parts of Taiwan. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Usagi was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 120.7°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.  Usagi was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  Continued heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in Taiwan.

Typhoon Man-Yi Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Man-yi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved toward the Philippines on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 127.2°E which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Man-yi intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Man-yi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Man-yi was very symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Typhoon Man-yi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Man-yi was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.9.  Typhoon Man-yi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Typhoon Man-yi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Man-yi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Man-yi is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will reach southeastern Luzon in less than 18 hours.

Typhoon Man-yi will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Man-yi could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Luzon.  Luzon has already been hit by a series of in recent weeks.  Typhoon Man-yi is capable of causing regional major damage.  Man-yi will seriously set back efforts to recover from the previous typhoons.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Usagi was bringing wind and rain to Taiwan.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Usagi was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 120.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.  Usagi was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in Taiwan.