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Zeta Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Zeta strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 91.7°W which put it about 295 miles (470 km) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Zeta was moving toward the north at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County line in Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

After weakening to a tropical storm when it passed over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday morning, Zeta intensified back to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) developed at the center of the eye. The ring of thunderstorms around the eye strengthened during the night and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force were occurring mainly in the eastern side of Zeta. Winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than hurricane force.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.6. Hurricane Zeta was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Zeta is likely to intensify further during the next few hours and it could strengthen to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta later today. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, Zeta will be moving more quickly at that time and it may not weaken much before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

The upper level trough is likely to steer Hurricane Zeta toward the northeast as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane Zeta is likely to make landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana. The center of Hurricane Zeta will pass very close to New Orleans and that city could experience hurricane force winds. The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of Zeta, which could also bring hurricane force winds to the coast of Mississippi. Places west of Grand Isle will experience weaker winds. Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 4 meters) along the coast of Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will weaken when it moves inland. Zeta will be strong enough to cause widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and central and southern Alabama. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches extend from southeastern Louisiana to northern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Zeta Brings Hurricane Force Winds to Yucatan, Warnings Issued for Gulf Coast

Zeta brought hurricane force winds to part of the Yucatan Peninsula early on Tuesday and warnings were issued for the Gulf Coast. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 88.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Progreso, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. THe Hurricane Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Allen to Progreso was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall on the northeastern part of the Yucatan Penisula just north of Tulum, Mexico on Monday night. Weather stations in Playa del Carmen and on Cozumel reported sustained wind speeds of hurricane force. Zeta dropped heavy rain over parts of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Zeta weakened to a tropical storm when it moved across the northern Yucatan. The center of Tropical Storm Zeta was just about to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The circulation around Zeta remained intact. Thunderstorms were occurring around the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Zeta. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Wins to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few hours. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta is likely to intensify back into a hurricane on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta on Wednesday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Tuesday. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. The upper level trough is likely to steer Zeta toward the northeast as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Zeta is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast

Zeta Intensifies to a Hurricane, Watches Issued for Gulf Coast

Former Tropical Storm Zeta intensified into a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 86.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico and the warning included Cancun and Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Allen to Tulum, Mexico and from Dzilam to Progresso. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.

Former Tropical Storm Zeta intensified quickly into a hurricane on Monday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and the circulation became more symmetrical. Storms that formed near the center of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which contributed to the increase in wind speed. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center in the northeast quadrant of Zeta. The winds in the other quadrants were blowing at less than hurricane force. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the western half of Zeta.

Hurricane Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours and it could strengthen more. Zeta will move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. It will likely weaken while the center passes over land. Hurricane Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Zeta is likely to intensify on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Zeta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Zeta will pass over the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northeastern Yucatan. It will also cause a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) along the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore. Hurricane Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Zeta is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Zeta Strengthens over Northwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 260 miles (425 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Warning included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened during Sunday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The stronger thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Zeta. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Despite the asymmetrical structure, thunderstorms near that center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Zeta. The winds on the western side of Zeta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Zeta could weaken if the center passes over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta on Monday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta could be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could reach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Epsilon made a transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone east of Newfoundland. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 48.6°N and longitude 38.8°W which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

TD 28 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Zeta

Tropical Depression Twentyeight strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Watch included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA airplane and a scatterometer on a satellite, the National Hurricane Center determined that Tropical Depression Twentyeight had strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday morning. The circulation around Zeta was still not well organized. The circulation in the middle troposphere was located to the east of the surface center. The lower level circulation seemed to be shifting closer to the middle level circulation and it was possible that a new center could be developing under the middle level rotation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the middle level center. Storms near that center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Data from the airplane indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of Zeta. The tropical storm force winds extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If Zeta remains stationary for another 12 to 24 hours, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface, which could interrupt intensification. Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Zeta will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. Zeta could meander over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta later on Sunday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday evening.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 42.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Depression 28 Forms over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression Twentyeight formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyeight was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 83.0°W which put it about 255 miles (405 km) south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (650 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. The government of Cuba issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA ariplane and visible satelite images, the National Hurricane Center determined than an area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean possessed sufficient organization to be designated Tropical Depression Twentyeight. The circulation around the depression was still organizing on Saturday afternoon. More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing in other parts of the depression. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentyeight will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Twentyeight could intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Depression Twentyeight will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. The depression could drift toward the northwest during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of the depression later on Sunday. The ridge will steer the depression toward the west-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Twentyeight could pass near the western end of Cuba on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 39.4°N and longitude 58.2°W which put it about 565 miles (910 km) south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 22m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Storm Sally Drops Heavy Rain on Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Sally dropped heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located at latitude 31.2°N and longitude 86.8°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west of Dothan, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida.

The winds to tropical storm force were occurring in bands over the Gulf of Mexico in the southern part of Tropical Storm Sally.  Most of the winds over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Hurricane Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday morning as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A NOAA C-MAN station at Ft. Morgan, Alabama measured a sustained wind speed 98 m.p.h. (158 km/h) and a peak wind gust of 121 m.p.h. (195 km/h) when the western eyewall passed over it.  Another weather station at Bon Secour, Alabama measured a sustained wind speed of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h).  There were reports of widespread power outages in Alabama.  The Pensacola Naval Air Station reported a wind gust of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h).

The wind pushed the water toward the coast and there was a storm surge over the barrier sialnds and along the coast of Alabama and northwest Florida.  Since the eye of Sally passed east of Mobile, Alabama, northerly winds pushed the water out of Mobile Bay and the water level dropped several feet.  Heavy rain fell north and east of the center of Sally and creeks an rivers were rising quickly in parts of southern Alabama and northwestern Florida.

Tropical Storm Sally will move northeast across Southeast Alabama on Wednesday night.  Sally will be over Georgia on Thursday and it will be over South Carolina on Thursday night.  Tropical Storm Sally will continue to drop heavy rain over those areas and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of northwestern Florida, southern Alabama, Georgia, western North Carolina and western South Carolina.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy was on a track that could take it near Bermuda in a few days.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 50.8°W which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Hurricane Sally Makes Landfall Near Gulf Shores

The center of Hurricane Sally officially made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday morning.  At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Sally was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 87.7°W which put it near Gulf Shores, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure as 965 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Sally strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday night as it ground its way slowly toward the Gulf Coast.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Sally.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Sally was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.  Hurricane Sally was capable of causing regional serious damage.  The winds were pushing water toward the coast and a storm surge of 9 to 12 feet (3 to 4 meters) was possible.

Hurricane Sally will move slowly northeast across Northwest Florida and Southeast Alabama.  Sally will slowly weaken as it moves inland, but it will cause widespread power outages in those areas.  Since Hurricane Sally will move slowly, it will drop heavy rain.  Flash Flood Watches extend from the Gulf Coast to Georgia and North Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Teddy rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane, Hurricane Paulette passes south of Newfoundland and Tropical Storm Vicky moved farther away from the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 49.0°W which put it about 820 miles (1315 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 41.9°N and longitude 49.1°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Paulette was moving toward the east-northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 33.9°W which put the center about 755 miles (1215 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were ind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Sally Continues to Grind Slowly Toward Mobile

Hurricane Sally continued to grind its way slowly north toward Mobile on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Sally located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south of Mobile, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Navarre, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi and from Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Sally did not change a lot on Tuesday.  A ragged eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Sally.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Sally.  The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of the hurricane.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Hurricane Sally was moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The steering winds around Sally were weak, but they were pushing the hurricane slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sally will make landfall near Mobile Bay on Wednesday morning.  Any small wobble to the left or to the right could affect the place of landfall.  An upper level trough over the western U.S. will move east during the next couple of days.  The trough will turn Sally more toward the east after it moves inland.

The intensity of Hurricane Sally may not change much in the 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  However, the circulation will pull drier air into the southern part of the hurricane.  In addition, the eastern edge of the approaching upper level trough will produce some vertical wind shear.  The positive impact of warm water will be balanced by the negative impacts of drier air and slight shear.  So, the environment is likely to be neutral for intensification.  Hurricane Sally will start to weaken after the center moves inland.

Hurricane Sally was already producing water rises along the Central Gulf Coast.  A storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) could occur near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Sally will cause mostly minor wind damage.  A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread power outages over southwestern Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Since Hurricane Sally will be moving slowly, it will drop heavy rain over southern Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Flash flooding will be likely in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Paulette continued to speed away from Bermuda, Tropical Storm Teddy was well on its way to becoming a hurricane and Tropical Storm Vicky was weakening over the eastern Atlantic.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 39.5°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the east-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 47.9°W which put it about 895 miles (1440 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 32.1°W which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Sally Grinds Slowly Toward the Gulf Coast

Hurricane Sally ground its way slowly toward the Gulf Coast on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Sally was located at latitude 28.9°N and longitude 87.6°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Sally was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Navarre,, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Morgan City, to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida.

After intensifying rapidly earlier on Monday, Hurricane Sally exhibited a more steady state on Monday evening.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 16 miles (26 km) at the center of Sally.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  There was a break in the south side of the ring.  The circulation of Hurricane Sally pulled some drier air around the southern side of the core.  The drier air may have contributed to the break in the eyewall.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north and the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Sally was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation in the northeastern quadrant of Sally.  Elsewhere, hurricane force winds were occurring mainly in the eyewall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles from the center of circulation.  The winds were weakest in the southwestern quadrant of the hurricane.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Sally was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Sally was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Sally will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Two other factors could inhibit further intensification of Hurricane Sally.  The drier air in the southern part of the circulation could limit the development of thunderstorms in that part of Sally.  The fact that Hurricane Sally is moving slowly means that it could mix cooler water to the surface which might reduce the energy available to drive the hurricane.  Even with the two inhibiting factors, Sally could intensify again on Tuesday.

Hurricane Sally will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak in that region and Sally will move slowly.  The slow movement of Hurricane Sally near the Gulf Coast means that any slight wobbles could affect the location of landfall.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sally could approach the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday night.  A wobble to the left could bring Sally ashore in southeastern Louisiana while a wobble to the right would bring it closer to Northwest Florida.

Hurricane Sally will bring strong winds to the coast of Mississippi and Alabama.  Where the winds blow water toward the coast, Hurricane Sally could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (4 meters).  Hurricane Sally could drop nearly a foot (0.3 m) of rain on parts of southern Mississippi and Alabama.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Paulette was speeding away from Bermuda, and Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky organized over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 35.7°N and longitude 62.3°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) north-northeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 45.0°W which put it about 1100 miles (1770 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 29.9°W which put it about 455 miles (735 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the mprthwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.