Tag Archives: Florida

Tropical Storm Marco Weakens Near Louisiana

Tropical Storm Marco weakened near Louisiana on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 88.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

An upper level trough over Texas produced strong southwesterly winds which sheared the top off of Tropical Storm Marco on Monday morning.  Stronger thunderstorms were confined to a few bands northeast of the center of circulation.  Bands around the center and in other parts of Marco consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force were only occurring in the thunderstorms northeast of the center.

Since the wind shear is expected to continue, the circulation around Tropical Storm Marco is expected to spin down.  As Marco weakens it will be steer more by the winds in the lower atmosphere.  A subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean is expected to expand to the west during the next several days.  The high will turn the low level circulation of Tropical Storm Marco more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Marco will make landfall over southeastern Louisiana on Monday night.  Marco will bring gusty winds and some rain, but its impact is likely to be minor.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Laura was moving near the south coast of Cuba.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 80.6°W which put it about 65 miles east-southeast of Cayo Largo, Cuba.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and for the Dry Tortugas.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar Del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Laura was not as well organized on Monday morning.  Passage of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba disrupted the northern half of the circulation.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) on the eastern side of Laura.  The winds on the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Laura will move near the south coast of Cuba for another 18 hours.  Since nearly half the circulation will be blowing across Cuba, it will continue to disrupt the northern half of the tropical storm.  Laura will move over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  When Tropical Storm Laura reaches the Gulf, it will move into a very favorable environment.  Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Laura will intensify into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico and it could rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane.  Laura is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Isaias Slightly Stronger, Hurricane Watch Issued for Carolinas

Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened slightly on Sunday afternoon and a hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the Carolinas’ coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 79.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, Long Island and Long Island Sound.

Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened a little on Sunday afternoon, but the middle level center of circulation was displaced to the northeast of the surface center.  An upper level trough over the central U.S. extended to the Gulf of Mexico and it was producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of Isaias.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also causing the displacement of the middle level center of Tropical Storm Isaias.  Thunderstorms continued to develop around the middle level center of circulation.  Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Isaias.  Tropical Storm force winds only extended out 65 miles (105 km) on the western side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The direction of the upper level winds will shift to the southwest as the upper level trough approaches Tropical Storm Isaias.  That will cause the vertical wind shear to decrease.  Tropical Storm Isaias could strengthen into a hurricane, if the shear decreases.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the north during the next 12 hours.  The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Isaias toward the northeast on Monday.  On its anticipated track Isaias will approach the coast of the Carolinas near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on Monday night.  Isaias could be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to extreme eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and coastal Virginia.  Isaias will cause a storm surge of 3  to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Storm Isaias will continue to move up the East Coast toward New England.

Isaias Crosses Andros Island, Weakens to Tropical Storm

The center of former Hurricane Isaias crossed Andros Island on Saturday afternoon and it weakened to a tropical storm.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 78.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton, Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.  A Hurricane Waning was also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island, and Bimini.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Ocean Reef to Boca Raton, Florida and from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.

The center of former Hurricane Isaias crossed over Andros Island on Saturday afternoon.  Normally, Andros Island does not have much of an impact on hurricanes, but combined with a less favorable environment it contributed to a temporary weakening of Isaias.   Tropical Storm Isaias consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds after crossing Andros Island.  However, new thunderstorms began to develop northeast of the center of circulation during the past several hours and part of the eyewall appeared to be reforming.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Isaias still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce westerly winds which blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they are likely to only affect the very top of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Isaias will move into a region where there is drier air in the middle and upper troposphere.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias will reorganize and it is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move more toward the north later on Sunday.  The upper level trough will turn Isaias toward the northeast on Monday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias is will approach the southeast coast of Florida near Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach on Sunday.  Isaias is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Hurricane Isaias Forces Hurricane Warning for Florida

The threat posed by Hurricane Isaias forced the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for Florida on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 75.7°W which put it about 195 miles (320 km) south-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton, Florida to the Volusia/ Brevard County Line.  Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for all of the Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and from Hallendale Beach to Boca Raton.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, Ocean Reef to Boca Raton, Florida and Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flagler. Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra, Florida.

The core of Hurricane Isaias exhibited greater organization on Friday afternoon.  Images from weather radar in the Bahamas and microwave sensors onboard satellites indicated that an eyewall was wrapping around the center of circulations.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms in the developing eyewall.  Storms near the center of Isaias were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Isaias.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Isaias will strengthen on Saturday and it could intensify more rapidly once the inner core is fully formed.  Isaias could intensify into a major hurricane while it moves over the Bahamas.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  It will turn the hurricane more toward the north during the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Isaias will move over the Central Bahamas on Friday night.  Isaias could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Hurricane Isaias could approach the coast of the Carolinas on Monday.  Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds to the southeast coast of Florida.  Those winds will blow the water toward the coast and they will create a dangerous storm surge.  Isaias will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Hurricane Isaias will also generate a dangerous storm surge in parts of the Bahamas.

Isaias Rapidly Intensifies into a Hurricane Southeast of the Bahamas

Former Tropical Storm Isaias rapidly intensified into a hurricane southeast of the Bahamas on Thursday night.  At 11:40 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 72.1°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Great Inagua.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were issued for all of the Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane sampling former Tropical Storm Isaias on Thursday night found winds to hurricane force and a decrease in surface pressure.  The core of Hurricane Isaias organized quickly after it moved over the warm water north of the Dominican Republic.  A band of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles to the northeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the north and east of Isaias in the parts of the circulation that were over water.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulations were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm and allowed the pressure to decrease.   Brands of thunderstorms were wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of the circulation.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Isaias will strengthen on Friday and it could intensify more rapidly once an inner core consolidates.  Isaias could intensify into a major hurricane while it moves over the Bahamas.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  It will turn the hurricane more toward the north on the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Hurricane Isaias will move over the Southeastern Bahamas on Friday morning.  Isaias will move over the Central Bahamas later on Friday and it could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Hurricane Isaias could approach the coast of the Carolinas on Monday.  Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Hurricane Isaias will also generate a dangerous storm surge in the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Isaias Reorganizes North of Dominican Republic, Watch Issued for South Florida

The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias reorganized near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic on Thursday afternoon and Tropical Storm Watches were issued for part of the coast of southeast Florida.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 70.6°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) southeast of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.

The low level center of Tropical Storm Isaias moved across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic on Thursday.  The middle and upper parts of Isaias skirted along the east coast of Hispaniola.  The various levels of Tropical Storm Isaias appeared to be reconsolidating near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic just to the east of Puerto Plata.  New thunderstorms were forming near the reorganizing center of Isaias.  Those storms were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm and allowed the pressure to decrease.  Brands of thunderstorms were wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the portions of those bands over water.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias tightened up on Thursday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the north and east of Isaias in the parts of the circulation that were over water.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification once it moves past Hispaniola.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias will intensify when it moves north of Hispaniola and it could intensify rapidly once an inner core consolidates.  Isaias could intensify to a hurricane on Friday and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  It will turn the tropical storm more toward the north on the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias will move over the Turks and Caicos by Friday morning.  Isaias will move over the the Bahamas on Friday and it could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Tropical Storm Isaias could approach the coast of the Carolinas on Monday.  Tropical Storm Isaias will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Isaias Drops Heavy Rain on Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Isaias dropped heavy rain on Puerto Rico on Thursday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 68.5°w which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east- southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  The center was about 80 miles (130 km) south of Cabo Engano.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands,  the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini.

Bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Isaias were dropping heavy rain over parts of Puerto Rico on Thursday morning.  Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for parts of the island.  Isaias was also causing winds to tropical storm force in parts in Puerto Rico.  A station at Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).  A station at Las Mareas reported a sustained wind speed of 3 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).

The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias exhibited much more organization on Thursday morning, although the mid-level center did appear to be displaced to the north of the low level center.  There was a center of circulation but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Isaias.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Bands in the western half of Isaias consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Northerly winds on that side of the circulation were sinking over the southern part  of Hispaniola and that could have been suppressing the development of thunderstorms in that region.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias was very still very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 415 miles (665 km) on the northern side of Isaias.

Tropical Storm Isaias could weaken when the low level center of circulation moves across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic.  The low level circulation will be disrupted by the terrain but it looks like Isaias will pass east of the tallest mountains on Hispaniola.  The mid-level center of Tropical Storm Isaias appears to be passing very close to the eastern end of Hispaniola.  The middle and upper portions of the circulation are likely to remain intact and a new low level circulation could form north of Hispaniola.  Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification once it moves past Hispaniola.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias is likely to intensify when it moves north of Hispaniola and it could intensify rapidly once a new low level center of circulation develops.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  it will turn the tropical storm more toward the north on the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias will move across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic today.  Isaias will move over the Bahamas on Friday and it could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Tropical Storm Isaias will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.  Flash floods could occur.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Causes Storm Surge on Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cristobal caused a storm surge on the Gulf Coast on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Cristobal was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.

The large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal blew water toward the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  The wind produced a rise in the water level from northwest Florida to southeast Louisiana.  The highest storm surges occurred along the coast of Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.  The water level reached 7.47 feet (2.28 m) at the Waveland Yacht Club in Mississippi.  The storm surge was 7.62 feet (2.32 m) at Shell Beach in Louisiana.  The storm surge covered coastal roads in Grand Isle, Louisiana and Biloxi, Mississippi.

The broad center of Tropical Storm Cristobal passed across the Lower Mississippi River delta on Sunday afternoon before it moved over New Orleans.  Cristobal began to weaken slowly as it moved inland.  Winds to tropical storm force were still occurring in the southeastern part of the circulation which was still over the Gulf of Mexico.  Most of the rain was falling in bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Cristobal.  Locally heavy rain fell over Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will move over Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday.  Cristobal will continue to weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.  Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas.

Large Tropical Storm Cristobal Churns Toward Louisiana

Large Tropical Storm Cristobal churned toward the coast of Louisiana on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Grand Isle, Louisiana.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal continued to be very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) to the east of the center of Cristobal.  A thunderstorm in a rainband on the eastern periphery of the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal produced a tornado near Orlando, Florida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the western half of the circulation.  The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force near the center of circulation.  The center passed just to the west of NOAA buoy 42001 on Saturday evening.  The buoy measured a surface pressure of 29.34 inches (993.8 mb).  More thunderstorms appeared to be forming north and south of the center of circulation on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will strengthen on Sunday.  If thunderstorms consolidate around the center of circulation, then there is a chance that Cristobal could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system on Sunday.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north.  A ridge in the middle troposphere will move north of Tropical Storm Cristobal later on Sunday.  The ridge will turn Cristobal toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.  The center of Cristobal could make landfall between Grand Isle and Morgan City.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring gusty winds to Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.  Those winds will push water toward the coast.  A storm surge of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) will be possible.  The water level could rise 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in parts of southeastern Louisiana.  Areas outside of levee protection systems could go under water.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will drop heavy rain over parts of southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for those regions.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Slowly Strengthens

Tropical Storm Cristobal slowly strengthened on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.

Although Tropical Storm Cristobal still did not exhibit the typical structure of a tropical storm, the circulation around it was more organized on Saturday morning.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in a part of this band about 100 miles (160 km) south of the center of Cristobal.  A few thunderstorms formed just to the west of the center of circulation.  The structure of the wind field around Tropical Storm Cristobal was still asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the western side of Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  The flow around the ridge will enhance upper level divergence to the northeast of Cristobal.  Enhanced upper level divergence could pump away enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If more thunderstorms form close to the center of circulation and an inner core develops, then there is a chance Cristobal could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 18 to 24 hours.  A ridge in the middle levels will move north of Tropical Storm Cristobal on Sunday afternoon.  That ridge could force Cristobal to move toward the north-northwest for a few hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.

The large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal means that it will bring gusty winds to Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and they will cause a storm surge on the northern Gulf Coast.  The water level could rise 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) along the coast.  The storm surge could be 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in parts of southeast Louisiana.  Areas outside levee systems could go under water.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will also drop heavy rain over southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana.  Fresh water flooding could occur.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of those regions.