Tag Archives: North Carolina

Hurricane Ian Approaches South Carolina

Hurricane Ian approached the coast of South Carolina on Friday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 31.4°N and longitude 79.1°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

Hurricane Ian did not have the typical structure of a tropical hurricane on Friday morning. Ian was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The circulation around Hurricane Ian was also interacting with a stationary front near the coast of the Carolinas. The result of these factors was that the strongest winds were occurring in the western side of Ian’s circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Hurricane Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) in the northeaster quadrant of Ian. Tropical storm force winds extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the other parts of Ian’s circulation. The interaction with the stationary front was also causing the heaviest rain to fall in the northern half of Hurricane Ian.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Ian is 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Ian is capable of causing widespread minor damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could get a little stronger before it makes landfall in South Carolina. The vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Ian to continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina between Charleston and Myrtle Beach on Friday afternoon. Ian will be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. If Ian makes landfall east of Charleston, the the strongest winds will affect that city. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with the stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. Serious coastal erosion is likely.

Ian Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

One time major hurricane and former Tropical Storm Ian strengthened back to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Vero Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.

The structure of Hurricane Ian contains elements of a hurricane and elements of an extratropical cyclone. Ian has a warm core in the middle and upper troposphere, which makes it a hurricane. However, cooler, drier air wrapped around the southern side of Ian and a cold front is forming east of Ian. The developing cold front is an element of an extratropical cyclone. Many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Ian are occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Ian’s circulation.

The wind field around Hurricane Ian also changed when Ian started a transition to an extratropical cyclones. The circulation around Ian is interacting with a large high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes. The interaction of Ian’s circulation with the high pressure system is causing the strongest winds to be in the northwestern quadrant of Hurricane Ian. Winds to hurricane force extend out 45 miles (75 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ian. The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ian also increased when it started the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 400 miles (645 km) in the eastern side of Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 230 miles (370 km) in the western side.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could intensify, if the center moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream current. More thunderstorms could form near the center of Ian’s circulation and could look more like a hurricane for a few hours. The vertical wind shear will eventually cause Hurricane Ian to gradually continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. Ian is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with a stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce very heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Ian Near Cape Canaveral

The center of Tropical Storm Ian was near Cape Canaveral, Florida on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) west of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Ian was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch included Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

Tropical Storm Ian was still producing strong winds along the east coast of Florida on Thursday morning. A National Weather Service station in Daytona Beach, Florida (KDAB) reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 m.p.h. (122 km/h).

Former major Hurricane Ian weakened to a tropical storm while it blew across Central Florida on Wednesday night. The structure of Ian also changed when it weakened. The areas of tropical storm force winds expanded over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) on the east side of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the western side of the circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ian. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ian consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Ian was in the early stage of a transition to an extratropical cyclone. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear was tilting upper part of Ian’s circulation toward the northeast. The wind shear was also starting Ian’s transition to an extratropical cyclone. Drier air was wrapping around the southern side of Tropical Storm Ian. The drier air was contributing to the lack of heavy rain in the southern and eastern parts of Ian.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Ian could intensify, if the center moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream current. Ian could strengthen back to a hurricane during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Ian toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center Tropical Storm Ian could make landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. Ian could be a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 6 feet (1.2 to 1.8 meters could occur.

Tropical Storm Colin Forms on South Carolina Coast

Tropical Storm Colin formed on the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Colin was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina.

A small low pressure system dropped heavy rain over the area around Charleston, South Carolina on Friday. An area of winds to tropical storm force was detected off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Colin. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Colin, which was over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Colin’s circulation. The winds over land were weaker. The heaviest rain was also falling in the bands over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Colin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Although the Sea Surface Temperatures off the coast of North Carolina are near 27˚C, the center of Colin’s circulation is likely to move along the coast. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Proximity to land and vertical wind shear are likely to prevent Tropical Storm Colin from strengthening during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Colin will move along the coast of North Carolina. Colin could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Bonnie was moving along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Managua, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean in a few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

Disturbance Drops Rain on Southeast U.S.

A disturbance designated as Invest 90L dropped rain over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 32.7°N and longitude 86.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northwest of Montgomery, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A disturbance that formed over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend moved quickly toward the north-northeast and it was located over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. The center of the disturbance made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday night near Pensacola, Florida. The disturbance was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Alabama and western Georgia on Monday morning. The disturbance will move quickly toward the north-northeast and it will merge with a cold front over the southeastern U.S. Locally heavy rain will spread over eastern Tennessee, western South Carolina, western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and West Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Henri Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Henri strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Henri was located at latitude 34.4°N and longitude 72.5°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Westport, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Warning included Block Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson, Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the portion of the coast from Westport, Massachusetts to Chatham, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included New York City.

Reconnaissance planes found that former Tropical Storm Henri has strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Henri and the inner end of a rainband wrapped around the north side of the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Henri. The winds in the other parts of the storm were blowing at less than hurricane force. Winds to tropical storm for extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Henri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Henri will move over the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move around the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Henri’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Henri is likely to strengthen during the next 12 hours. Henri will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream on Sunday and that will cause it to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Henri toward the north-northeast during the next 12 hours. The position and orientation of the trough will change as it interacts with Hurricane Henri. The trough will pull Henri toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Henri will approach Long Island on Sunday afternoon. Henri could be a hurricane when it nears Long Island. Hurricane Henri is likely to cause minor wind damage on Long Island and in southern New England. Gusty winds and falling trees could cause widespread power outages. Henri could move slowly when it moves across southern New England. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods. Hurricane Henri could cause a storm surge of up to 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Grace was dropping heavy rain over parts of central Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 98.9°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) north-northeast of Mexico City, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracruz to Barra de Tordo, Mexico.

Grace Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Grace rapidly intensified to a major hurricane near Mexico on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 96.3°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracuz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo, Mexico.

Hurricane Grace rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Friday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Grace. The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Grace. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease, which produced a rapid increase in the surface wind speed.

Hurricane Grace was an average sized hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Grace was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.3. Hurricane Grace was capable of regional major damage.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Grace toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Grace will make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Tuxpan and Veracruz in a few hours. Grace will be capable of causing major wind damage. It will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods are likely. Hurricane Grace could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast. Grace will weaken quickly when it moves inland over Mexico, but heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of Central Mexico,

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Henri was moving toward the north off the East Coast of the U.S. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 73.5°W which put it about 230 miles (375 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (85 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Watch included Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson, Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the portion of the coast from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Wood Hole, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included New York City.

Tropical Storm Henri Prompts Hurricane Watches for Long Island, Southeast New England

A potential threat from Tropical Storm Henri prompted the issuance of Hurricane Watches for parts of Long Island and southeastern New England on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 73.7°W which put it about 375 miles (600 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Watch included Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut.

Tropical Storm Henri did not change much during Thursday night. The distribution of thunderstorms around Henri remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Henri. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Henri was moving under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge off the east coast of the U.S. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Henri’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Henri.

Although Tropical Storm Henri is currently moving toward the west-northwest, an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will turn Henri toward the north on Friday. The trough will steer Henri toward the north on Saturday. When Henri turns toward the north it will move under the axis of the upper level ridge. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will be less. Tropical Storm Henri is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday. Henri will move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream and there is a chance that Henri could strengthen to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A high pressure system will move northeast of Henri on Sunday. The high pressure system will block Henri and prevent it from moving toward the northeast. The high pressure system will also slow the forward speed of Henri. Henri could be moving slowly when it nears Long Island and southeastern New England. A slow forward speed would increase the time period when places experience strong gusty winds, which would increase the chance for wind damage and power outages. Slow movement would also increase the total rainfall in many locations and the risk for flash floods would increase. Henri could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Grace strengthened back to a hurricane over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 93.7°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracuz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida near Cape San Blas on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 85.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Stienhatchee River, Florida.

The National Hurricane Center stated that Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida near Cape San Blas, which is about 25 miles (40 km) west of Apalachicola. The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 994 mb. Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of northwest Florida and southeast Alabama. There were reports of flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Fred was also causing a storm surge along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico where the wind was pushing the water toward the shore. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will be over northern Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Fred could be over West Virginia by Wednesday. Tropical Storm Fred will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland. However, Fred will move through a very moist environment and it will drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Rain will spread over western Georgia on Monday evening. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for parts of northwest Florida, southeast Alabama, western and northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause sporadic power outages as it moves inland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was dropping heavy rain on parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and former Tropical Depression Eight strengthened to Tropical Storm Henri southeast of Bermuda.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 72.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas and Camaguey. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of Haiti and for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cinefuegos, Matanzas and Isla de la Juventud.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 62.9°W which put it about 145 miles (2305 km) southeast of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Elsa Moves over North Carolina

Tropical Storm Elsa moved over North Carolina on Thursday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 35.6°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Raleigh, North Carolina. Elsa was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

Tropical Storm Elsa moved a little more quickly toward the northeast on Thursday. The surface center of Elsa moved over North Carolina. The structure of Elsa exhibited the typical characteristics of a tropical storm moving northeast near the coast of the U.S. Heavy rain was falling in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Elsa. The heaviest rain was falling on eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Drier air was wrapping around the western and southern sides of Elsa. The strongest winds were blowing in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Elsa that was over the Atlantic Ocean.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Elsa quickly toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Elsa will move over Virginia on Thursday evening. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Long Island on Friday morning. Elsa could pass near Cape Cod later on Friday. Tropical Storm Elsa will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves farther north. Elsa will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the East Coast of the U.S. from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause sporadic power outages along the East Coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.