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Tropical Storm Watches Issued for South Texas and Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for parts of the coast of south Texas and northern Mexico on Monday afternoon. A low pressure system over the Bay of Campeche was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 93.2°W which put it about 380 miles (615 km) southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and about 470 miles (755 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to Boca de Catan, Mexico.

A large low pressure system formed over the Bay of Campeche on Monday. The low pressure system did not exhibit the usual structural features of a tropical cyclone. So, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Since the low pressure system has the potential to develop into a tropical storm, Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico.

The large low pressure system did not have a well defined, distinct low level center of circulation. There were few thunderstorms in the broad region around the middle of the low pressure system. The surface winds were relatively weak near the middle of the low pressure system. The strongest winds were occurring in a band of thunderstorms about 285 miles (460 km) northeast of the middle of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Some winds in that area were blowing at tropical storm force. Elsewhere in the low pressure system, the winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could develop into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. A distinct low level center of circulation would have to form. Thunderstorms would have to develop and to persist near the low level center. The strongest winds would need to occur near the low level center of circulation in order for Potential Tropical Cyclone One to be classified as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northeastern part of a large counterclockwise circulation call a Central American Gyre (CAG). The Central American Gyre will steer the low pressure system toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. A strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will turn the low pressure system toward the west-northwest on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One could approach the coast of northern Mexico or southern Texas on Wednesday evening.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One could be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. That is the reason the Tropical Storm Watches were issued. Even if Potential Tropical Cyclone One does not develop into a tropical storm, it will drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Franklin Drops Heavy Rain on Hispaniola

Tropical Storm Franklin was dropping heavy rain over Hispaniola on Wednesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 71.2°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of Barahona, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Tropical Storm Franklin was dropping heavy rain over parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday morning. The center of Franklin made landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic south of Barahona. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Franklin. Those bands were dropping heavy rain over the Dominican Republic. Those rainbands were also producing the strongest winds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Franklin. The winds in the western side of Franklin’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Franklin will move northward across Hispaniola during the rest of Wednesday. The mountains in Hispaniola will disrupt the lower part of Franklin’s circulation. The low level circulation around Tropical Storm Franklin could be very weak by the time it moves north of Hispaniola on Tuesday night. However, the middle and upper parts of Franklin’s circulation will pass above the mountains. The middle and upper parts of the circulation are likely to be relatively intact when they move over the Atlantic Ocean. Downdrafts could transport rotation back toward the surface, and Tropical Storm Franklin is forecast to start to reorganize north of Hispaniola later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Harold was dropping rain over parts of West Texas and southern New Mexico. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Harold was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 102.1°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) south of Midland, Texas. Harold was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Harold Brings Wind and Rain to South Texas

Tropical Storm Harold brought wind and rain to South Texas on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Harold was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 97.4°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north of Port Mansfield, Texas. Harold was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Harold was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas. Harold was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

Tropical Storm Harold strengthened a little before it made landfall on Padre Island. The distribution of thunderstorms in Harold was asymmetrical. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northern side of Harold’s circulation than there were in the bands in the southern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Harold’s circulation.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Harold were dropping heavy rain over parts of South Texas. Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for eastern Duval County, Jim Wells County, western Kleberg County, south central Live Oak County, northwestern Nueces County, and southwestern San Patricio County.

The bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Harold were also producing winds to tropical storm force. The National Weather Service Office in Corpus Christi (KCRP) reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h).

Tropical Storm Harold will move inland quickly over South Texas. Harold will weaken as it move farther inland, but Tropical Storm Harold will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley during the next few hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Franklin was over the Caribbean Sea and Tropical Depression Gert weakened east of the Leeward Islands.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 71.1°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) south-southwest of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Gert was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 59.7°W which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Gert was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Harold Approaches South Texas

Tropical Storm Harold was approaching the coast of South Texas on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Harold was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas. Harold was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened during Monday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Harold. There was a large circulation around Tropical Storm Harold, but the surface center of circulation was elongated. The distribution of thunderstorms in Harold was asymmetrical. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northern side of the low pressure system than there were in the bands in the southern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Harold’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Harold will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central U.S. There is also an upper level low over northern Mexico. The upper level ridge and the upper level low will interact to produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Harold’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Harold could intensify a little during the next few hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

The upper level ridge over the central U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Harold toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Harold will reach the coast of South Texas in a few hours. Tropical Storm Harold will reach South Texas in a few hours. Harold will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to South Texas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to five feet (1.5 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Franklin was over the Caribbean Sea and Tropical Depression Gert was east of the Leeward Islands.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 70.7°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Gert was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 58.8°W which put it about 290 miles (470 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Gert was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Gulf System Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for South Texas

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for South Texas. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

There was a large circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, but there was not a well defined surface center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving counterclockwise in the large low pressure system. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northern side of the low pressure system than there were in the bands in the southern half of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central U.S. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow form the east. So, there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear over much of the lower pressure system. An upper level low over northern Mexico will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the southwestern part of the low pressure system. There will be more vertical wind shear in that region. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will reach the coast of South Texas on Tuesday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely be a tropical storm when it reaches South Texas. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to South Texas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to five feet (1.5 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Franklin was over the Caribbean Sea, Tropical Storm Gert was east of the Leeward Islands and former Tropical Storm Emily weakened to a tropical depression over the central Atlantic Ocean.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gert was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 57.0°W which put it about 410 miles (665 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Gert was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 41.6°W which put it about 1225 miles (1965 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Emily was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Brings Rain to Northeast Mexico

A tropical wave designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four brought rain to northeastern Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 97.9°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four moved inland over northeastern Mexico during Saturday night. A center of circulation never formed in the lower levels of the of the tropical wave and so it never developed into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. The tropical wave will move northwest over the Lower Rio Grande Valley on Sunday. Thunderstorms in the tropical wave could drop locally heavy rain over northeastern Mexico and South Texas. Some places could receive 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm) of rain. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Texas and Mexico

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for portions of the coasts of Texas and Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 94.5°W which put it about 400 miles (640 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to Boca de Catan, Mexico.

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Friday. However, observations from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane on Friday afternoon indicated that there was not a well defined center of low level circulation in the weather system. The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in order to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of South Texas. The government of Mexico also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Mexico.

More thunderstorms developed in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation appeared to be organizing into bands. The thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the weather system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in that region and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. A well defined low level center of circulation will have to develop in order for the system to become a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Four toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will make landfall south of Brownsville, Texas during Saturday night. It will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to South Texas and northern Mexico. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Invest 98L Brings Rain to South Texas

A low pressure system designated as Invest 98L brought rain to South Texas on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 98L was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 97.5°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Invest 98L was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A low pressure system designated as Invest 98L brought rain to South Texas on Sunday morning when the center of the low moved inland just south of Corpus Christi. The low pressure system exhibited much more organization as it approached the coast. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on both visible satellite and radar images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the low pressure system. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Invest 98L, which were still over the Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 98L will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the southern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Invest 98L toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Invest 98L will move inland over the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Invest 98L will drop widespread rain over South Texas. Many places could receive 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm). Heavier rain could fall over some locations and localized flooding is possible. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Brownsville, Texas issued a Flood Advisory for Jim Wells, Kleeburg and Nueces counties.

Hurricane Pamela Makes Landfall on West Coast of Mexico

Hurricane Pamela made landfall on the west coast of Mexico northwest of Mazatlan near La Cruz on Wednesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Pamela was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Mazatlan. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altata to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Hurricane Pamela was being affected by moderate vertical wind shear as it approached the west coast of Mexico. A large upper level trough over the western U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Pamela’s circulation. Northerly winds in the lower levels of the western side of Hurricane Pamela pulled drier air into its circulation. The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The strongest thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Hurricane Pamela. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Pamela’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

The upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Pamela quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. The circulation in the lower levels of Pamela will weaken quickly when it moves over the mountains in western Mexico. Pamela will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Sinaloa and Durango. Flash floods could occur in some locations. The remnants of of the middle and upper parts Pamela’s circulation could contribute to rainfall over Texas on Thursday.

Pamela Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Mazatlan

Former Tropical Storm Pamela strengthened to a hurricane southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Pamela was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 280 miles (455 km) southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Pamela was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Mazatlan. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altata to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Baja California from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barilles.

Former Tropical Storm Pamela strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mazatlan on Tuesday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Hurricane Pamela. Those thunderstorms generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Pamela. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the east side of Pamela. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Pamela will move through a region where the environment is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Pamela will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the the southern part of an upper level trough over the western U.S. The trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Pamela’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Pamela from getting stronger.

Hurricane Pamela will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next few hours. The high pressure system will steer Pamela toward the north during that time period. The upper level trough over the western U.S. will turn Pamela toward the northeast in a few hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Pamela will approach the west coast of Mexico early on Wednesday morning. Pamela will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the section of the coast near Mazatlan. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Sinaloa and Durango. The remnants of Pamela’s circulation could contribute to rainfall over Texas later this week,