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Tropical Storm Nicholas Prompts Hurricane Watch for Texas

A potential threat posed by Tropical Storm Nicholas prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the Texas coast on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 260 miles (415 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Nicholas was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to Freeport, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra el Mezquital, Mexico to High Island Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Galveston. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nicholas was poorly organized. There was a broad center of circulation in the middle of Nicholas. Several smaller cyclonic circulations were revolving around inside the broad center. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Nicholas. Bands in the southern half of Nicholas consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nicholas. The winds in the other parts of Nicholas’ circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicholas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move between and upper level low over northern Mexico and an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper low and ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nicholas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The upper level low will move west and weaken on Monday. The upper level ridge will extend west over Tropical Storm Nicholas. When the ridge extends over Nicholas the upper level winds will weaken. When the upper level winds weaken, the vertical wind shear will decrease. Tropical Storm Nicholas will strengthen when that occurs. If a more well defined center develops in the middle of Nicholas, the it could strengthen more quickly. There is a chance that Nicholas could intensify to a hurricane later on Monday.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move around the western side of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Nicholas toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicholas will approach the coast near the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on Monday. Nicholas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal areas of northern Mexico and east Texas on Monday. Tropical Storm Nicholas could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along portions of the coast. It is possible that a new center of circulation could develop closer to the thunderstorms in the northern half of Tropical Storm Nicholas. If a new center develops farther to the north, that could increase the threat to northeastern Texas and western Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Forms over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Nicholas formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 94.8°W which put it about 405 miles (645 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Nicholas was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Barra el Mezquital, Mexico to Port Aransas, Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to High Island, Texas.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found sustained winds of tropical storm force in a low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nicholas. The circulation around Tropical Storm Nicholas was still organizing. Thunderstorms began to form near the center of Nicholas. Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nicholas. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicholas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move between and upper level low over northern Mexico and an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper low and ridge will produce south-southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nicholas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken on Monday and Tropical Storm Nicholas could strengthen more quickly when that occurs. There is a chance that Nicholas could intensify to a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move around the western side of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Nicholas toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicholas will approach the coast near the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on Monday. Nicholas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal areas of northern Mexico and southern Texas on Monday. Tropical Storm Nicholas could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along portions of the coast.

Hurricane Ida Crosses Western Cuba

Hurricane Ida moved across western Cuba on Friday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 84.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) west of Havana, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron to Intracoastal City, Louisiana and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the Cuba provinces of the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

The center of Hurricane Ida passed over western Cuba on Friday evening. Even though the center of Ida was over land for several hours, weather radars in Cuba and reports from a reconnaissance plane indicated that the core of Hurricane Ida remained intact. A circular eye with a diameter of 26 miles (42 km) was at the center of Ida. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Storms near the generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ida will strengthen now that the center is moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters). A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast from west of Vermillion Bay to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Ida could start to move more slowly when it nears the coast on Sunday. That could prolong the duration of strong winds. Widespread power outages could occur in southeast Louisiana. Ida will also drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Flash floods could occur in that region. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been announced for parts of southeastern Louisiana. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020. Ida is likely to be bigger and strong than Hurricane Zeta was when Zeta hit the same part of Louisiana in 2020.

Ida Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Ida rapidly intensified to a hurricane early on Friday afternoon near the Isle of Youth, Cuba. At 1:10 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuba provinces of the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane flying through former Tropical Storm Ida early on Friday afternoon found that Ida had strengthened to a hurricane. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ida and an eye was apparent on weather radars in Cuba. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Ida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Ida.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment that will be increasingly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  Ida will move across the Isle of Youth and western Cuba during the next 12 hours. The intensification process is likely to slow when the center of Ida is over land and Ida could even weaken a little.  An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ida will strengthen when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  As mentioned above, on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move across the Isle of Youth and western Cuba on during the next 12 hours. Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 14 feet (3 to 4 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been announced for parts of southeastern Louisiana. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Storm Ida Strengthens

Reconnaissance planes found Friday morning that Tropical Storm Ida had strengthened over the Northwest Caribbean Sea. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 81.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Two reconnaissance planes flying through Tropical Storm Ida on Friday morning found that the sustained wind speed had increased and the minimum surface pressure had decreased. The planes also found that the circulation around Ida was more organized.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Ida.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.  The decreasing pressure resulted in the generation of more force which produced higher wind speeds.  More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ida.

Tropical Storm Ida will move into an environment that will become increasingly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  An upper level low over the southeast U.S. was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Ida’s circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the upper low was moving away from Ida and the low was weakening.  The wind shear will decrease as the upper low weakens.  Tropical Storm Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  Ida will continue to intensify today.  Tropical Storm Ida could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Ida will move across western Cuba this evening, which could briefly slow the intensification process.  An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  As mentioned above, on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move across western Cuba on Friday evening. Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 14 feet (3 to 4 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Storm Ida Prompts Hurricane Watch for Louisiana and Mississippi

The threat posed by Tropical Storm Ida prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 80.5°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Grand Cayman. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ida was gradually becoming more organized. A few more thunderstorms were beginning to develop near the center of Ida. A rainband was wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands forming on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Ida. An upper level low near Florida was producing south-southwesterly winds that were blowing over the western side of Ida’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Ida. The winds in the other parts of Ida’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ida will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Ida toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move over the Cayman Islands during the next few hours. Ida could be near western Cuba on Friday evening. Tropical Storm Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and parts of western Cuba. Ida will move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. It could approach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Ida will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 60 hours. The upper low near Florida will move off to the northwest and it will weaken. When the upper low weakens, they vertical wind shear will decrease. Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. Ida is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the next 36 hours. An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Ida could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop. Ida could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

On its anticipated track Ida could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday. Ida could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast. Ida will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the central Gulf Coast. It could generate a significant storm surge of up to 7 to 11 feet (2 to 3.3 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay.

Tropical Depression Nine Strengthens to Tropical Storm Ida

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida late on Thursday afternoon. At 5:20 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 79.8°W which put it about 130 miles (205 km) southeast of Grand Cayman. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

A reconnaissance flight into former Tropical Depression Nine by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane on Thursday afternoon found sustained winds to tropical storm force and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Ida. The circulation around Tropical Storm Ida was gradually becoming more organized. A rainband was wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Ida. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands forming on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Ida. An upper level low near Florida was producing south-southwesterly winds that were blowing over the western side of Ida’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Ida will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Ida toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move over the Cayman Islands on Thursday night. Ida could be near western Cuba on Friday evening. Tropical Storm Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and parts of western Cuba. Ida will move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. It could approach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Ida will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 72 hours. The upper low near Florida will move off to the northwest and it will weaken. When the upper low weakens, they vertical wind shear will decrease. Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. Ida could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 36 hours. An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Ida could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop. Ida could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

On its anticipated track Ida could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday. Ida could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast. Ida will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the central Gulf Coast. It could generate a significant storm surge.

Tropical Depression Nine Forms over Northwest Caribbean

Tropical Depression Nine formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 79.2°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southeast of Grand Cayman. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also issued for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemise, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Satellite images indicated the development of a circulation within a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nine. The circulation around Tropical Depression Nine was still organizing. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to form. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands forming on the eastern side of the tropical depression. An upper level low near Florida was producing south-southwesterly winds that were blowing across the western side of Tropical Depression Nine. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Nine will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system during the next several days. The high will steer the depression toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Nine will move over the Cayman Islands on Thursday night. It could be near western Cuba on Friday evening. The system will move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. It could approach the center coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Nine will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next three days. The upper low near Florida will move off to the northwest and it will weaken. When the upper low weakens, they vertical wind shear will decrease. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. Tropical Depression Nine could strengthen to a tropical storm later today. It could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 36 hours. An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. A period of rapid intensification could occur when the system moves toward the central Gulf Coast. It could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Likely to Form over Western Caribbean

A tropical cyclone is likely to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next few days. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 99L was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 75.4°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of Barranquilla, Colombia. Invest 99L was moving toward the west-northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A tropical cyclone is likely to form from a tropical wave, currently designated as Invest 99L, that is over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia. There is currently no low level center of circulation in the tropical wave. Visible satellite images were providing evidence of some rotation in the middle troposphere on Wednesday afternoon. The wave is currently in an environment that is unfavorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone. The wave is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, an upper level low centered near the Bahamas is producing strong southwesterly winds that are blowing across the western part of the tropical wave. Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and they are inhibiting the development of the wave. Easterly winds in the lower troposphere are pushing lower section of the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest, which is also inhibiting development.

The tropical wave will move into an environment more favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next several days. The upper low near the Bahamas is forecast to move toward the northwest and to weaken. When the upper low weakens, the vertical wind shear will decrease around the tropical wave. In addition, the wave is forecast to move more slowly when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is indicating that there is a 50% probability that a tropical depression will form from the tropical wave in the next 48 hours. NHC is indicating there is a 80% probability that a tropical wave will form during the next five days.

The tropical wave will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer the tropical wave toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave will approach Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday. The system could be near the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday evening. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The conditions over the Gulf of Mexico could be favorable for intensification during the weekend. The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are near 30°C. An upper level ridge is forecast to be over the Gulf. The upper level winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If Invest 99L is in the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, it could strengthen to a hurricane. If it develops into a hurricane with a well formed inner core, then a period of rapid intensification could occur.

Reconnaissance planes are tentatively scheduled to begin to investigate the tropical wave on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. Invest 99L has the potential to pose a serious threat to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida should monitor progress of the system.

Depression Likely to Form over Western Gulf of Mexico

A tropical depression is likely to form over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours within a broad area of low pressure currently designated as Invest 92L. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 92L was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 93.6.W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east-southeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Invest 92L was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The weather system designated as Invest 92L was actually a complex circulation consisting of parts of several different weather features. A broad surface low pressure system extended from the Eastern North Pacific Ocean across Mexico over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The northern end of a tropical wave at the surface was over the Yucatan Peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system in the middle and upper troposphere was over the western gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico. An upper level ridge was over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern periphery of the broad surface low. Drier air in the middle and upper levels was over the western Gulf of Mexico and the drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in other parts of Invest 92L. Several small circulation centers formed within clusters of thunderstorms on the eastern side of the broader low during the past two days. Those centers moved toward the west-southwest and dissipated over Mexico.

The environment around Invest 92L will become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 36 hours. Invest 92L will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. The upper level low and the upper ridge will interact to produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Invest 92L. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they will also be a source of upper level divergence to the east of Invest 92L. The upper level divergence will cause the surface pressure to decrease slowly . The drier air over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms on the western side of the broad low pressure system. The inner end of a rainband will wrap closer to the center, but most of the thunderstorms are likely to remain in the eastern half of Invest 92L. The National Hurricane Center indicated that the probability is 80% that a tropical depression will form during the next 48 hours.

The upper level low and the upper ridge will steer Invest 92L slowly toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the low pressure system could approach the coast of eastern Texas and Louisiana by Friday night. Invest 92L could be a tropical depression or a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. It will likely drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland.