Tag Archives: Florida

Hurricane Ian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 83.2°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida and from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 over the northwestern Caribbean Sea south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 13 miles (20 km) formed at the center of Ian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Ian got bigger on Monday afternoon as Ian got stronger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 18 hours. Hurricane Ian could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian will be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Hurricane Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian will be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ian will be capable of causing regional major damage in western Cuba. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The steering currents could weaken on Wednesday. If the steering currents weaken, the center of Hurricane Ian could stall just west or northwest of the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg. The strongest winds will be in the eastern side of Ian’s circulation. The area around Tampa and St. Petersburg could experience a prolonged period of strong winds. When the center of Ian is west of Tampa, the winds will blow from the south in the area around Tampa. Southerly winds will push water into Tampa Bay and a storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3.0 meters) is possible. If Hurricane Ian stalls, some locations in west central Florida could receive 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause fresh water flooding.

Tropical Storm Ian Strengthens South of Grand Cayman

Tropical Storm Ian strengthened south of Grand Cayman on Sunday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 81.4°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of Grand Cayman. Ian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman and for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

Tropical Storm Ian began to intensify quickly on Sunday evening. Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye was forming at the center of Ian’s circulation. The developing eye was surrounded by broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ian. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ian’ circulation.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 36 hours. Ian is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the next 12 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Ian will pass west of Grand Cayman on Monday. Ian could be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian could be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Ian Passes South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Ian passed south of Jamaica on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 77.7°W which put it about 395 miles (630 km) southeast of Grand Cayman. Ian was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas.

Tropical Storm Ian gradually got better organized on Saturday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center of Ian’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Ian. The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Ian were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify more quickly on Sunday. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Ian could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Ian could intensify to a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ian could be near Grand Cayman on Monday morning. Ian could be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston brought wind and rain to the western Azores and Tropical Depression Hermine was weakening north-northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 38.6°N and longitude 33.4°W which put it about 255 miles (410 km) west of the Faial, Azores. Gaston was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 9979 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, and Flores.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Hermine was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 20.3°W which put it about 535 miles (860 km) north-northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Hermine was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Fiona Blows Past Bermuda

Hurricane Fiona blew past Bermuda on Thursday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 34.1°N and longitude 64.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) north of Bermuda. Fiona was moving toward the north-northeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hubbards to Brule, Nova Scotia. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Prince Edward Islands and Isle de la Madeline. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Francois, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for St. Andrews, New Brunswick to Hubbards, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeline, Quebec. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Anticosti Island and for the portion of the coast from Sheldrake, Quebec to Parson’s Pond, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor to Hare Bay, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Francois to St. Lawrence, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor, Newfoundland to West Bay, Labrador.

The center of Hurricane Fiona passed west of Bermuda on Thursday night. The L. F. Wade International Airport in Bermuda reported a sustained wind speed of 64 m.p.h. (103 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 m.p.h. (134 km/h). There were reports of stronger wind speeds measured by automated stations in higher locations in Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona continued to be a large, well organized hurricane. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Fiona grew into a large hurricane as it moved farther north on Thursday night. Winds to hurricane force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 32.70 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.3. Hurricane Fiona was larger than Hurricane Jeanne was in 2004.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures colder than 26˚C. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Fiona will start to weaken gradually when the wind shear increase. A combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Fiona to make a transition to a very strong extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Fiona toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fiona will move away from Bermuda on Friday. Hurricane Fiona will approach the Canadian Maritimes on Friday night. Fiona will bring strong, destructive winds to the Canadian Maritimes. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston was bringing wind and rain to the Azores and Tropical Depression Nine formed over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 40.5°N and longitude 29.2°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) north-northwest of the Faial. Gaston was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 615 miles (985 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to intensify to a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. It could move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. There were reports of up to 10 inches of rain falling on locations in the area around Miami. The heavy rain caused urban and street flooding in some locations. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Bonita Beach on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. A rain gauge at Biscayne Park measured 10.98 inches (27.9 cm) of rain. Media reports showed urban and street flooding in some locations.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One remained poorly organized on Saturday morning. There was a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of low pressure was located south-southwest of Naples, Florida. There was another circulation center located west-southwest of the Florida Keys. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring over South Florida and over the Northwestern Bahamas. The western half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One contained mainly showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Sunday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could strengthen to a tropical storm when it moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream on Sunday.

The upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move across South Florida on Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Florida and the Northwestern Bahamas during Saturday. More heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Produces Tropical Storm Force Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone One produced tropical storm force winds over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for South Florida, all of the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 86.8°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight found that Potential Tropical Cyclone One was producing winds to tropical storm force over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Potential Tropical Cyclone One was asymmetrical due to vertical wind shear caused by an upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass to the east of the system. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to South Florida, the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for South Florida and Western Cuba

The National Hurricane Center issued Tropical Storm Watches for South Florida and all of the Florida Keys on Thursday afternoon. The government of Cuba also issued Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba. The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for all of the Florida Keys. The government of Cuba issued Tropical Storm Watches for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One in keeping with its policy on the issuance of watches and warnings. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One consisted of a broad area of low pressure. One or more smaller centers of circulation were revolving around inside the broad area of low pressure. The National Hurricane Center identified a center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula as the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Images from satellites and radar indicated that a middle level center of circulation might be located near the western end of Cuba. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the low pressure system. Bands in the western half of the circulation were over the Yucatan Peninsula and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to western Cuba and South Florida later this week. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Drops Rain on Southeast U.S.

A disturbance designated as Invest 90L dropped rain over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 32.7°N and longitude 86.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northwest of Montgomery, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A disturbance that formed over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend moved quickly toward the north-northeast and it was located over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. The center of the disturbance made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday night near Pensacola, Florida. The disturbance was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Alabama and western Georgia on Monday morning. The disturbance will move quickly toward the north-northeast and it will merge with a cold front over the southeastern U.S. Locally heavy rain will spread over eastern Tennessee, western South Carolina, western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and West Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Moves Toward Gulf Coast

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms moved toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 27.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 90L on Sunday afternoon. Visible satellite images showed that a distinct center of circulation had formed in a disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. A swirl of lower clouds was clearly visible on the images. Some thunderstorms were beginning to develop in bands northwest of the center of circulation. Otherwise, there were mainly low clouds and showers in the other bands near the center. Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band on the northeastern periphery of the disturbance.

The disturbance will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the disturbance. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The disturbance is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook indicated the probability was 10% that the disturbance would develop into a tropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the disturbance toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Cluster of Thunderstorms Forms over Central Gulf of Mexico

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The cluster of storms persisted on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the cluster of thunderstorms was located near latitude 26.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The cluster of thunderstorms was moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Some of the thunderstorms in the cluster were producing sustained winds of 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and it persisted on Sunday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation beneath the cluster of storms. Visible satellite loops provided indications of several possible centers of rotation in the middle troposphere. Thunderstorms in the cluster generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away toward the northeast. The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms.

The cluster of thunderstorms will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The cluster of storms will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the thunderstorms. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The cluster of thunderstorms is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if a surface center of circulation forms beneath the cluster.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the cluster of thunderstorms toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. One band of showers and thunderstorms is currently approaching that area. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.