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Hurricane Matthew Moving Slowly North Toward the Greater Antilles

Powerful Hurricane Matthew was moving slowly north over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Matthew was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 255 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Matthew was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Haiti, Jamaica, the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma and Las Tunas.  Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay and Ragged Island.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of Camaguey, the Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Puerto la Plata to the border with Haiti.

Matthew is a very well organized symmetrical hurricane.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of about 14 miles (22 km).  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Numerous bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms are generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 10.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.3.  The indices indicate that Hurricane Matthew is as strong as Hurricane Dennis was in 2005, but Matthew is a little smaller than Dennis was.

Hurricane Matthew will be moving through a very favorable environment.  Matthew will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  There could be some fluctuations in intensity, especially if eyewall replacement cycles occur.  Matthew is likely to remain a powerful hurricane.

Hurricane Matthew has reached the western end of a subtropical high pressure system.  Matthew is likely to continue to move north around the western end of the subtropical high.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Matthew could be near Jamaica and western Haiti on Monday night.  Matthew could reach eastern Cuba on Tuesday and it could be over the Bahamas on Wednesday.

Hurricane Matthew is capable of causing region significant wind damage.  It will bring locally heavy rain to parts of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.  Matthew will also create dangerous storm surges along the coast.

Powerful Hurricane Matthew Turns Northwest

After completing a tight slow cyclonic loop near the northern coast of Colombia, Hurricane Matthew started moving toward the northwest on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Matthew was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 73.6°W which put it about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Matthew was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Jamaica.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province.

Matthew is a compact hurricane.  It has a circular eye with a diameter of less than 10 miles (16 km).  The eye is surrounded by a tight ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the east of Hurricane Matthew.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size index (HWISI) is 41.9.  The indices indicate that Hurricane Matthew is as intense and a little smaller than Hurricane Dennis was when Dennis was over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 2005.

Hurricane Matthew will continue to move through a favorable environment on Sunday.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°.  An upper level trough west of Matthew will generate southwesterly winds which will blow near the northwestern part of the hurricane.  Although there will be some vertical wind shear, it may not have a significant impact on Hurricane Matthew.  If one of the rainbands wraps around the existing eye, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause a temporary weakening of Hurricane Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system.  The combination of the subtropical high and the upper level trough to the west of Matthew should steer the hurricane toward the north-northwest on Sunday.  On its anticipate track Hurricane Matthew could reach Jamaica and southern Haiti on Monday afternoon.  Matthew could reach eastern Cuba on Monday night and it could be over the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday.

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous hurricane.  The indices suggest that it is capable of causing significant regional wind damage.  It could also bring flooding rains to parts of Haiti.  Hurricane Matthew could also produce dangerous storm surges on the south coasts of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.

Hurricane Matthew Becomes the First Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane Since 2007

Hurricane Matthew continued its rapid intensification on Friday night and it became the first Atlantic hurricane to reach Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale since Hurricane Felix did so in 2007.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Matthew was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 72.3°W which put it about 440 miles (710 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Matthew was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Matthew was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.7.  These indices indicate that Hurricane Matthew is not as intense and slightly smaller than Hurricane Wilma was, when Wilma was a Category 5 hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 2005.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-Au-Prince, Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha, Colombia.

Hurricane Matthew remains in a very favorable environment of minimal vertical wind shear and warm Sea Surface Temperatures.  The intensity may fluctuate as a result of eyewall replacement cycles.

A strong subtropical high is steering Hurricane Matthew toward the west.  Matthew is slowing as it approaches the western end of the subtropical high.  It will turn toward the north when it reaches the western end of that high pressure system.  However, the location, time and sharpness of the turn to the north are still uncertain.  That uncertainty means that the longer term track of Hurricane Matthew is also uncertain.  We should get more clarity about the future direction of Hurricane Matthew during the next several days.

Matthew Rapidly Intensifies Into Category 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Matthew intensified very rapidly into a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved across the southern Caribbean Sea on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Matthew was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 71.6°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) north of Punta Gallinas, Colombia.  Matthew was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). and there were wind gusts t0 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

The Hurricane Size Index (HII) was 28.3.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.5.  The indices mean that Hurricane Matthew is very similar in size and intensity to what Hurricane Ike was when Ike was northeast of the Leeward Islands in 2008.  The indices also mean that Hurricane Matthew is capable of producing regional significant wind damage.

Hurricane Matthew is very well organized and it efficiently extracted energy from the warm water of the Caribbean Sea to intensify rapidly on Friday.  It has a circular eye with a diameter of about 15 miles (24 km).  The eye is surrounded by a ring of very tall thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms are pumping out large quantities of mass which allowed the surface pressure to decrease by 44 mb during the past 24 hours.  There additional bands of thunderstorms, mainly in the eastern half of the circulation.

Hurricane Matthew will remain in a very favorable environment while it is over the Caribbean Sea.  It could intensify further.  When hurricanes become as strong as Matthew strong, they sometimes undergo eyewall replacement cycles.  During an eyewall replacement cycle, a hurricane first weakens and then strengthens again when the innermost eyewall dissipates.  If eyewall replacement cycles occur in Hurricane Matthew, then the intensity will fluctuate.

A strong subtropical high pressure system north of Matthew is steering the hurricane toward the west-southwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 24 hours.  When Matthew reaches the western end of the subtropical high, it will start to move toward the north.  Guidance from numerical models is still divergent about the details of the turn toward the north.  If the turn is sharper, it could mean that Hurricane Matthew moves toward Haiti.  If the turn is more gradual, it could mean that Matthew heads for Jamaica and eastern Cuba.  The uncertainty is the reason why watches have been posted for both Jamaica and Haiti.

Matthew is a very powerful hurricane.  It is capable of causing regional significant wind damage.  In addition Matthew will produce very heavy rain and the potential for dangerous flash flooding.  There is also the possibility of a significant storm surge along the coast.

Matthew Becomes a Hurricane Over the Eastern Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Matthew strengthened into a hurricane on Thursday as it moved over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Matthew was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 68.1°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) north-northeast of Curacao.  Matthew was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Curacao, Bonaire and Aruba.  The government of Columbia has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from the Columbia/Venezuela border to Riohacha.

The structure of Hurricane Matthew became much better organized on Thursday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  An eye appears to be forming.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye on all sides except to the south.  Additional bands of thunderstorms developed in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation.  The storms near the eye generated upper level divergence which pumped out mass to the north and east of Hurricane Matthew.  The upper level divergence pumped out enough mass to allow the minimum pressure to decrease by 17 mb during the past 24 hours.

Hurricane Matthew will be moving into an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the western Caribbean Sea and an upper level ridge just east of Matthew are producing southwesterly winds which are blowing across the top of the hurricane.  The vertical wind shear made Hurricane Matthew’s structure asymmetrical earlier today, but the shear has been less in recent hours.  The effect of the wind shear will be to slow the rate of intensification, but it will not prevent intensification.  Hurricane Matthew will pass just north of the cost of South America and drier air could also slow the rate of intensification.

A strong subtropical high pressure system to the north of Matthew is steering the hurricane toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for about another 48 hours.  When Hurricane Matthew reaches the western end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north.  Guidance from the numerical models continues to be quite divergent about when, where and how sharp the turn will be.  If Hurricane Matthew turns sooner and sharper, it could move over Haiti early next week.  On the other hand, if Matthew turns later and more gradually, it could affect Jamaica and eastern Cuba.  It is too early to know which scenario will eventually occur.

Hurricane Matthew could become a major hurricane over the Caribbean Sea and interests in the Greater Antilles should monitor its progress.

Tropical Storm Earl Forms over the Western Caribbean

Based on data collected by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane, the National Hurricane Center designated a system previously known as Invest 97L as Tropical Storm Earl.  At 12:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 80.2°W which put it about 535 miles (860 km) east of Belize City, Belize.  Earl was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Allen, Mexico to the Belize/Guatemala border.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo Gracias a Dios to the Honduras/Guatemala border.

The recon plane found a small closed low level center of circulation on the western edge of a cluster of thunderstorms.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Earl is very small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Those thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence which has pumped out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease a few millibars during the past 12 hours.

The environment around Tropical Storm Earl is somewhat favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level low centered near the western tip of Cuba is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing over the western side of Tropical Storm Earl.  Those westerly winds are producing some vertical wind shear, which is why most of the thunderstorms are in the eastern half of Earl.  The wind shear is inhibiting intensification, but the upper low is forecast to move farther from Earl, which would reduce the shear.  If Earl move north of the coast of Honduras, it should intensify.  However, if the center of circulation moves over Honduras, then Earl could weaken fairly quickly because of its small size.

The subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Tropical Storm Earl toward the west at a fairly rapid speed.  The high is expected to continue to steer Earl toward the west during the next several days, but the tropical storm is expected to move a little more slowly on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Earl is expected to pass just north of the coast of Belize.  Earl could be very close to Belize in about 36 hours.

Earl is a small tropical storm and the greatest risks are locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Tropical Depression 12 Forms and Warnings Issued for the Bahamas

A small center of circulation developed within a larger disturbance near the Bahamas and the National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression 12 (TD12).  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression 12 was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 73.0°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of San Salvador in the Bahamas and about 30 miles (50 km) north of Mayaguana.  TD12 was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas and for the Acklins, Samana Cays, Crooked Island and Long Cay in the Southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical Depression 12 formed when a tropical wave interacted an upper level low.  Tropical cyclones that develop in that manner tend to be poorly organized in their early stages.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are located east and south of the center of circulation.  The surface center is located on the western edge of the convection.

Although Tropical Depression 12 is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, the upper level environment is marginal for intensification.  An upper level low near southwest of the depression is generating southerly upper level winds over the western part of TD12.  A small upper level high is over the eastern part of TD12.  The upper level high is generating some divergence to the east of the depression.  Some further intensification is possible and the depression could become Tropical Storm Kate on Monday.

Tropical Depression 12 could bring rain and squally weather to parts of the Bahamas.  It is near some of the same places that were hit by Hurricane Joaquin last month and it could hinder recovery efforts.

Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin Bringing Strong Winds and Floods to the Bahamas

Hurricane Joaquin intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday and it brought strong winds and floods to some of the islands of the Bahamas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 74.6°W which put it about 20 miles (32 km) east-southeast of Clarence Town on Long Island in the Central Bahamas and about 810 miles (1310 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Joaquin was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.5.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, Rum Cay, the Exumas, Long Island and San Salvador.   A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Bimini and Andros Island.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Andros Island and the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Ragged Islands, the Inaguas, Mayaguana and the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin and Guantanamo.

The eye in Hurricane Joaquin contracted on Thursday and it has only been visible intermittently on conventional satellite imagery.  The intensity of the hurricane appears to have stabilized in recent hours.  While the intensity of Joaquin has been constant, the circulation has increased in sized and hurricane force winds now extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  Joaquin is still generating upper level divergence which seems to be pumping out as much mass as is converging in the lower levels of the circulation.  As a result, the pressure has also remained fairly steady during the past few hours.  There is not much vertical wind shear and the overall environment would seems to support further intensification.  However, the slow movement of Joaquin may be causing it to stir cooler water to the surface, which will reduce the energy available to the hurricane.

Hurricane Joaquin has moved little during the past six hours.  An narrow ridge is blocking its motion and the ridge is preventing it from moving toward the north.  A large upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is expected to weaken the ridge on Friday.  The upper level trough is expected to steer Joaquin toward the north on Friday.  Most of the reliable numerical models predict that the trough will carry Joaquin toward the northeast during the weekend and that it will stay east of the U.S.  A couple of other models still suggest a landfall could occur, but they are outliers at the current time.  Until Hurricane Joaquin makes the turn toward the north and northeast, it could still pose a potential risk to the U.S., but that possibility is much less than it was 24 hours ago.  Joaquin will continue to bring high winds and floods to parts of the Bahamas on Friday.

Tropical Storm Erika Bringing Heavy Rain to Hispaniola

Tropical Storm Erika is moving across Hispaniola and it is bringing heavy rain to parts of that island.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 71.2°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) west-southwest of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and about 745 miles (1200 km) southeast of Miami, Florida.  Erika was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.  Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Island, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence, the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin and Guantanamo.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Erika is even less well organized today.  At times a small cyclonic rotation appeared on visible satellite images, while at other times Erika looked a lot like a very strong tropical wave.  Vertical wind shear caused by an upper level trough over the western Caribbean Sea has prevented thunderstorms from forming near the core of the circulation.  The lower part of the circulation will be significantly disrupted by the mountains of Hispaniola, but the middle portion may make it across the island.  If the middle level circulation is disrupted as well, then Erika will degenerate into a disorganized area of thunderstorms.  If the middle level circulation is still intact when it emerges west of Hispaniola, then it is possible that momentum could be transferred to the surface and a new low level center spun up.  Erika would most likely be a tropical depression at most at that time.  The water north of Cuba is very warm and if Erika still exists, it could intensify somewhat as it moves toward Florida.

The winds in the lower levels continued to push Erika toward the west-northwest on Friday and that general motion is likely continue for the next 12 to 12 hours.  Erika is getting closer to the western end of the subtropical high and it could turn more toward the north during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Erika or its remnants could be approaching the Florida Keys on Sunday afternoon.  At this time it is almost impossible to know how strong it will be at that time.  If Erika does start to reorganize when it gets west of Hispaniola, watches and/or warnings could be issued for parts of Florida.

Erika Bringing Heavy Rain to the Northeastern Caribbean

Although it is not very well organized, Tropical Storm Erika brought heavy rains to parts of the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday and it caused flooding on Dominica.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 65.3°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 1145 miles (1850 km) east-southeast of Miami, Florida.  Erika was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti, St. Barthelemy and St. Martin.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Central Bahamas and the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Erika is poorly organized to due persistent upper level winds from the west which are causing vertical wind shear.  The low level circulation consists of a large diffuse center with at least once smaller mesoscale center rotating around inside the larger diffuse center.  The mesoscale center could have been produced by one of the thunderstorm clusters that form nightly in the southeastern portion of the circulation.  Again on Thursday the strongest thunderstorms occurred east of the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms produced a lot of upper level divergence but the upper level westerly winds pushed that divergence east of the low level center.  As a result, the surface pressure actually rose a couple of millibars on Thursday.  Stronger thunderstorms are forming southeast of the center of Erika again tonight.  So, the pattern of the past several nights appears to be repeating itself again.

An upper level trough over the western Caribbean Sea is causing the westerly winds that are the source of vertical wind shear over Erika.  That trough is expected to drift west and slowly weaken.  If it does weaken in a couple of days, then the upper level wind pattern could be more favorable for intensification.  However, the center of Erika could pass over or very near Hispaniola.  It is likely that the mountains on that island would significantly disrupt the low level circulation.  If the low level circulation maintains its integrity, the Sea Surface Temperatures around the Bahamas and south Florida are very warm.  If Erika still has a coherent circulation at that time it could organize quickly.

A subtropical ridge is steering Erika toward the west.  Erika is nearing the western end of the ridge and a turn toward the west-northwest is possible.  If Erika gets stronger and the circulation is taller, then the upper level trough could push it more toward the north.  On the other hand, if the circulation of Erika stays weaker and shorter, then lower level flow could push it farther west.  Erika is likely to pass near or over Hispaniola on Friday and on its anticipated track it could be approaching south Florida in about 72 hours.

Even if Erika is a disorganized tropical storm it is capable of producing heavy rains and flooding on any island it crosses.