Tag Archives: Florida

Sally Rapidly Strengthens to a Hurricane, Paulette Hits Bermuda

Former Tropical Storm Sally rapidly strengthened into a hurricane on Monday morning and Hurricane Paulette hit Bermuda.  At 12:30 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Sally was located at latitude 28.7°N and longitude 87.0°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Sally was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.  Tropical Storms Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City Louisiana and from the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian River Pass to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

Formerly Tropical Storm Sally intensified rapidly on Monday morning.  A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Sally.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Sally.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Hurricane Sally will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Sally will continue to intensify and it is likely to strengthen rapidly.  Sally could intensify into a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Sally will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system the extends from the western Atlantic Ocean over the southeastern U.S.  The high will steer Sally toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours.  Hurricane Sally will move more toward the north on Tuesday when it reaches the western end of the high.  Sally will move more slowly when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sally will approach the Mouth of the Mississippi River on Monday night.  Sally could make landfall on the coast of Mississippi on Tuesday,

Hurricane Sally will bring strong winds to southeastern Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi.  Sally could generate a storms surge of 9 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) along the coast.  Hurricane Sally will also drop very heavy rain and flash floods are likely.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Paulette hit Bermuda on Monday morning.  There were reports of minor wind damage and power outages.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 33.2°N and longitude 64.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) north of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.  A Hurricane Warning remained in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Sally Strengthens, Hurricane Warning Includes New Orleans

Tropical Storm Sally strengthened on Sunday morning and a Hurricane Warning included the city of New Orleans.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 84.9°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) east-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Sally was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Alabama/Florida border.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane indicated that Tropical Storm Sally was strengthening on Sunday morning.  Even though Tropical Storm Sally was strengthening, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring around the center of circulation and in bands in the eastern side of Sally.  Bands in the western half of the circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Sally generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Sally will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  There will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Sally is likely to strengthen into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Sally could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.  There is a chance that it could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Sally will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Sally toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Sally could approach southeastern Louisiana on Monday night.  Sally will move more toward the north and it could slow down when it reaches the western end of the high.  Sally will have the potential to cause serious damage.  It could cause a storm surge of 9 to 12 feet (3 to 4 meters).  If Sally moves slowly, it will drop heavy rain that will cause flash floods.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Paulette continued to move toward Bermuda, Tropical Depression Rene weakened and Tropical Depression Twenty strengthened.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 61.9°W which put it about 240 miles (385 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located at latitude 26.8°N and longitude 47.6°W which put it about 1150 miles (1855 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Rene was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 36.4°W which put it about 1680 miles (2705 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Sally Prompts Hurricane Watch for Gulf Coast

Expected intensification of Tropical Storm Sally prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the Gulf Coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 81.9°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Naples, Florida.  Sally was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River, Florida to the Alabama/Florida Line.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Sally continued to get better organized on Saturday afternoon as it moved slowly away from Southwest Florida.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms strengthened in the eastern half of Sally and the strongest winds were occurring in those bands.  Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Sally.  Winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Sally will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Sally will intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane by Monday.  Once an inner core forms, Sally could intensify rapidly and there is a chance it could strengthen into a major hurricane.  The environment will not be as favorable for rapid intensification as it was for Hurricane Laura, but rapid strengthening is possible.

Tropical Storm Sally will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Sally toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sally could approach the Gulf Coast by Monday night or Tuesday.  Sally may move more slowly toward the north when it nears the western end of the high pressure system.  It will almost certainly be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  Sally could cause a storm surge of 10 feet (3 meters).  Since it will be moving slowly, Sally could drop very heavy rain and fresh water flooding will be possible.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Paulette continued toward Bermuda, Tropical Depression Rene churned in the Central Atlantic and Tropical Depression Twenty formed over the Eastern Atlantic.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 58.5°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 45.6°W which put it about 1200 miles (1935 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Rene was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 33.5°W which put it about 2030 miles (3265 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Paulette Causes Hurricane Warning for Bermuda

A likely intensification of Tropical Storm Paulette caused a Hurricane Warning to be issued for Bermuda on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 57.2°W which put it about 565 miles (905 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Paulette was on the verge of strengthening into a hurricane on Saturday morning.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that a small circular eye was forming at the center of Paulette.  A ring of strong thunderstorms was developing around the eye.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Paulette.  The stronger thunderstorms were in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of Paulette consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the northern side of Tropical Storm Paulette.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Paulette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move into an area that is northeast of an upper low north of Puerto Rico and west of an upper level ridge that is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper low will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Paulette.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will slow the rate of intensification.  In spite of the wind shear Paulette is likely to strengthen into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic.  The high will steer Paulette toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Paulette will approach Bermuda on Sunday night.  Paulette will almost certainly be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Nineteen was strengthening near Southwest Florida and Rene weakened to a tropical depression west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 81.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Naples, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coasst from Ochlockonee River to the Okaloosa/Walton  County Line in Florida.

Tropical Depression Nineteen was dropping heavy rain over the Florida Keys on Saturday morning.  The depression is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.  A Hurricane Watch is likely to be issued for the Northern Gulf Coast later today.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 44.4°W which put it about 1415 miles (2275 km) west-northwest of teh Cabo Verde Islands.  Rene was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  Th maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Depression Nineteen Forms, Watch Issued for South Florida

Tropical Depression Nineteen formed between the Bahamas and Florida on Friday afternoon and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for a portion of South Florida.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located at latitude 25.4°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-southeast of Miami, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef, Florida.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the Bahamas organized quickly on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nineteen.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of the depression.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and started to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the depression.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.  A ship northwest of Andros Island reported winds to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).

Tropical Depression Nineteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  For most of the time the depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move underneath the middle of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The center of the depression could spend about 12 hours over South Florida on Saturday which would inhibit intensification.  The depression will intensify over the Gulf of Mexico and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Depression Nineteen will move south of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Nineteen will reach southeastern Florida during Friday night.  It could approach the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.  Tropical Depression Nineteen will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to South Florida during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Paulette turned toward Bermuda and Tropical Storm Rene weakened west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 855 miles (1745 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Paulette is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and it could be a major hurricane when it passes near Bermuda on Monday.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 41.1°W which put it about 1165 miles (1875 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Rene was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Marco Weakens Near Louisiana

Tropical Storm Marco weakened near Louisiana on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 88.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

An upper level trough over Texas produced strong southwesterly winds which sheared the top off of Tropical Storm Marco on Monday morning.  Stronger thunderstorms were confined to a few bands northeast of the center of circulation.  Bands around the center and in other parts of Marco consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force were only occurring in the thunderstorms northeast of the center.

Since the wind shear is expected to continue, the circulation around Tropical Storm Marco is expected to spin down.  As Marco weakens it will be steer more by the winds in the lower atmosphere.  A subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean is expected to expand to the west during the next several days.  The high will turn the low level circulation of Tropical Storm Marco more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Marco will make landfall over southeastern Louisiana on Monday night.  Marco will bring gusty winds and some rain, but its impact is likely to be minor.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Laura was moving near the south coast of Cuba.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 80.6°W which put it about 65 miles east-southeast of Cayo Largo, Cuba.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and for the Dry Tortugas.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar Del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Laura was not as well organized on Monday morning.  Passage of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba disrupted the northern half of the circulation.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) on the eastern side of Laura.  The winds on the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Laura will move near the south coast of Cuba for another 18 hours.  Since nearly half the circulation will be blowing across Cuba, it will continue to disrupt the northern half of the tropical storm.  Laura will move over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  When Tropical Storm Laura reaches the Gulf, it will move into a very favorable environment.  Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Laura will intensify into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico and it could rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane.  Laura is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Isaias Slightly Stronger, Hurricane Watch Issued for Carolinas

Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened slightly on Sunday afternoon and a hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the Carolinas’ coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 79.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, Long Island and Long Island Sound.

Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened a little on Sunday afternoon, but the middle level center of circulation was displaced to the northeast of the surface center.  An upper level trough over the central U.S. extended to the Gulf of Mexico and it was producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of Isaias.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also causing the displacement of the middle level center of Tropical Storm Isaias.  Thunderstorms continued to develop around the middle level center of circulation.  Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Isaias.  Tropical Storm force winds only extended out 65 miles (105 km) on the western side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The direction of the upper level winds will shift to the southwest as the upper level trough approaches Tropical Storm Isaias.  That will cause the vertical wind shear to decrease.  Tropical Storm Isaias could strengthen into a hurricane, if the shear decreases.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the north during the next 12 hours.  The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Isaias toward the northeast on Monday.  On its anticipated track Isaias will approach the coast of the Carolinas near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on Monday night.  Isaias could be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to extreme eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and coastal Virginia.  Isaias will cause a storm surge of 3  to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Storm Isaias will continue to move up the East Coast toward New England.

Isaias Crosses Andros Island, Weakens to Tropical Storm

The center of former Hurricane Isaias crossed Andros Island on Saturday afternoon and it weakened to a tropical storm.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 78.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton, Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.  A Hurricane Waning was also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island, and Bimini.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Ocean Reef to Boca Raton, Florida and from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.

The center of former Hurricane Isaias crossed over Andros Island on Saturday afternoon.  Normally, Andros Island does not have much of an impact on hurricanes, but combined with a less favorable environment it contributed to a temporary weakening of Isaias.   Tropical Storm Isaias consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds after crossing Andros Island.  However, new thunderstorms began to develop northeast of the center of circulation during the past several hours and part of the eyewall appeared to be reforming.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Isaias still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce westerly winds which blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they are likely to only affect the very top of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Isaias will move into a region where there is drier air in the middle and upper troposphere.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias will reorganize and it is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move more toward the north later on Sunday.  The upper level trough will turn Isaias toward the northeast on Monday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias is will approach the southeast coast of Florida near Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach on Sunday.  Isaias is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Hurricane Isaias Forces Hurricane Warning for Florida

The threat posed by Hurricane Isaias forced the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for Florida on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 75.7°W which put it about 195 miles (320 km) south-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton, Florida to the Volusia/ Brevard County Line.  Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for all of the Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and from Hallendale Beach to Boca Raton.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, Ocean Reef to Boca Raton, Florida and Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flagler. Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra, Florida.

The core of Hurricane Isaias exhibited greater organization on Friday afternoon.  Images from weather radar in the Bahamas and microwave sensors onboard satellites indicated that an eyewall was wrapping around the center of circulations.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms in the developing eyewall.  Storms near the center of Isaias were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Isaias.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Isaias will strengthen on Saturday and it could intensify more rapidly once the inner core is fully formed.  Isaias could intensify into a major hurricane while it moves over the Bahamas.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  It will turn the hurricane more toward the north during the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Isaias will move over the Central Bahamas on Friday night.  Isaias could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Hurricane Isaias could approach the coast of the Carolinas on Monday.  Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds to the southeast coast of Florida.  Those winds will blow the water toward the coast and they will create a dangerous storm surge.  Isaias will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Hurricane Isaias will also generate a dangerous storm surge in parts of the Bahamas.

Isaias Rapidly Intensifies into a Hurricane Southeast of the Bahamas

Former Tropical Storm Isaias rapidly intensified into a hurricane southeast of the Bahamas on Thursday night.  At 11:40 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 72.1°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Great Inagua.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were issued for all of the Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane sampling former Tropical Storm Isaias on Thursday night found winds to hurricane force and a decrease in surface pressure.  The core of Hurricane Isaias organized quickly after it moved over the warm water north of the Dominican Republic.  A band of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles to the northeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the north and east of Isaias in the parts of the circulation that were over water.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulations were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm and allowed the pressure to decrease.   Brands of thunderstorms were wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of the circulation.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Isaias will strengthen on Friday and it could intensify more rapidly once an inner core consolidates.  Isaias could intensify into a major hurricane while it moves over the Bahamas.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  It will turn the hurricane more toward the north on the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Hurricane Isaias will move over the Southeastern Bahamas on Friday morning.  Isaias will move over the Central Bahamas later on Friday and it could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Hurricane Isaias could approach the coast of the Carolinas on Monday.  Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Hurricane Isaias will also generate a dangerous storm surge in the Bahamas.