Tag Archives: Cancun

Tropical Storm Helene Forms Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Helene formed over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of the western tip of Cuba.  Helene was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Middle Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Flamingo, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Walton/Bay County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found that a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine had strengthened over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  Based on data collected by the reconnaissance flight, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Helene.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Helene exhibited more organization on Tuesday.  The reconnaissance plane found a well defined low level center of circulation.  Even though the circulation around Helene was more organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Helene.  Bands in the western side of Helene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  More thunderstorms were starting to develop in the bands in the western side of Helene’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Helene began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Helene was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern side of Helene’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Helene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.   The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Helene will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Helene is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Helene will be near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning.  Helene will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Helene is likely to approach northern Florida on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Helene is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Helene could be a major hurricane when it approaches northern Florida on Thursday.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.  Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along portions of the coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Watches and Warnings Issued for Yucatan and Western Cuba

A risk posed by a low pressure system over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Watches and Warnings for Yucatan and western Cuba on Monday morning.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center changed the designation of former Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on Monday morning.  The low pressure system still had a large asymmetrical circulation.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands developed in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the western side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to form into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

A reconnaissance plane is on its way to investigate Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move approach Yucatan and the western end of Cuba on Tuesday afternoon.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could be a hurricane when it reaches Yucatan and western Cuba.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to affect Florida on Thursday.  It is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Beryl Hits the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 87.6°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tulum on Friday morning.  Beryl was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.8.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will move across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula during the rest of Friday.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strong winds and heavy rain will occur in Quintana Roo and Yucatan.  Beryl is capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the portion of the coast north of Tulum.

Hurricane Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will likely weaken to a tropical storm while it is over the Yucatan.  Hurricane Beryl will move over the western Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  Beryl will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Beryl could could intensify back to a hurricane when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl will move more toward the northwest during the weekend.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday.  Watches may be issued for the coast later on Friday or on Saturday.

 

Hurricane Beryl Approaches the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 85.5°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

After weakening earlier on Thursday, a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl had strengthened back to a major hurricane on Thursday evening.  The reconnaissance plane found an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The increase in upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to decrease again.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl decreased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening  Hurricane Beryl could intensify during the next few hours.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.

Hurricane Beryl will be able to cause regional major damage when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

 

Hurricane Beryl Buffets the Cayman Islands

Hurricane Beryl buffeted the Cayman Islands on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 82.6°W which put the center about 95 miles (150 km) west-southwest of Grand Cayman.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

Hurricane Beryl buffeted the Cayman Islands with wind and rain on Thursday morning.  The core of Beryl’s circulation passed south of Grand Cayman.  So, the strongest winds and heaviest rain remained south of the Cayman Islands.  A weather station at Owen Roberts International Airport in Grand Cayman (MWCR) reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).

An upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Beryl.  Those winds were also causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear was affecting the structure of Hurricane Beryl.  An eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storm.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Hurricane Beryl.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Beryl’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The westerly winds in the upper levels were inhibiting the divergence to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

Even though Hurricane Beryl was weaker, Beryl was still a major hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Beryl was a little smaller on Thursday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.0.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is likely to cause Hurricane Beryl to continue to weaken unless the upper level winds weaken.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula early on Friday.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

 

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Hurricane Beryl brought wind and rain to Jamaica on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 79.2°W which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) southeast of Grand Cayman.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

Hurricane Beryl brought strong winds and heavy rain to Jamaica on Wednesday.  The center of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the south of Jamaica.  The northern eyewall of Hurricane Beryl moved along the south coast of Jamaica.  The strongest winds occurred in the southern part of Jamaica.  A weather station at Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston (MKJP) reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The strongest part of Hurricane Beryl passed south of that station.  There were report of wind damage and flooding in parts of Jamaica.

The most of the core of Hurricane Beryl passed just south of Jamaica and the core remained relatively intact.  Reconnaissance aircraft reported an eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye, but there was a break in the southwestern part of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1. Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2018.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will continue to weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass south of the Cayman Islands during Wednesday night.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the shower.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

 

 

Major Hurricane Beryl Nears Jamaica

Major Hurricane Beryl neared Jamaica on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Campeche, Mexico.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl was still a major hurricane on Wednesday morning.   Although the eye appeared cloud filled on visible satellite images, the reconnaissance aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.   Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady during Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl pass near the southern coast of Jamaica on Wednesday afternoon.  Beryl will begin to affect the Cayman Islands later on Wednesday evening.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is likely to pass just south of Jamaica during the next few hours.  Much of Jamaica could experience winds to hurricane force.  The strongest winds will occur along the southern coast of Jamaica.   Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

Hurricane Grace Hits Yucatan

Hurricane Grace hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 87.9°W which put it about 45 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Valladolid, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Punta Herrero, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo,, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cancun to Campeche, Mexico and from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio.

The center of Hurricane Grace made landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula southeast of Tulum on Thursday morning. The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. Grace will produce strong gusty winds over the Yucatan. It will also drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Grace will weaken gradually back to a tropical storm while it moves across the Yucatan.

Hurricane Grace will move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. Grace will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Grace is likely to intensify back to a hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Grace toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Grace will move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. Grace will move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. Hurricane Grace could approach the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Friday night.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was moving west toward the east coast of the U.S.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of former Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 42.0°N and longitude 76.0°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south of Binghamton, New York. Fred was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the northeastern U.S.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 69.5°W which put it about 525 miles (845 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Grace Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Grace intensified to a hurricane west of the Cayman Islands on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 65 miles (105km) west of Grand Cayman. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Punta Herrero, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cancun to Campeche, Mexico and from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio.

Hurricane Grace was intensifying on Wednesday morning. A reconnaissance plane found that an eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was forming at the center of Grace. The developing eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Grace. Storms near the core of Grace were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the eastern side of Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Grace will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge centered near Florida. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grace’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Hurricane Grace will continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. A period of rapid intensification could occur once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall is fully formed at the center of Grace.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Grace will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night. Grace will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain. Flash flooding is likely to occur in some locations. Grace will also cause a storm surge along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was passing southwest of Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 39.5°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Fred was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb. Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the eastern U.S.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 66.6°W which put it about 190 miles (310 km) southwest of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb

Tropical Storm Grace Brings Wind and Rain to Cayman Islands

Tropical Storm Grace brought wind and rain to the Cayman Islands on Wednesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednuesday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 81.4°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Grand Cayman. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Punta Herrero, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cancun to Campeche, Mexico and from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio.

Tropical Storm Grace was getting better organized on Wednesday morning. A reconnaissance plane was reporting that an eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was forming at the center of Grace. The developing eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Grace. Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Grace.

Tropical Storm Grace will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge centered near Florida. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grace’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Grace is likely to strengthen to a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A period of rapid intensification could occur once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms at the center of Grace.

Tropical Storm Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Grace will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night. Grace will be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain. Flash flooding is likely to occur in some locations. Grace will also cause a storm surge along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was passing south of Bermuda.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 38.6°N and longitude 81.8°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) northwest of Charleston, West Virginia. Fred was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the eastern U.S.

At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.1°N and longitude 65.7°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 9980 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.