Tag Archives: Haiti

Tropical Storm Melissa Stalls Southeast of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Melissa stalled over the Caribbean Sea southeast of Jamaica on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 74.3°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Melissa was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa stalled southeast of Jamaica as easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and westerly winds in the upper levels competed to push the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Melissa’s circulation.  Thunderstorms continued to develop in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Melissa.  Bands in the western side of Melissa’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

The vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Melissa.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Melissa’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move slowly toward Jamaica.

 

Tropical Storm Melissa Forms over Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Melissa formed over the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 71.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south of Port Au Prince, Haiti.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Melissa.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday morning.  Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Melissa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western half of Tropical Storm Melissa.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move closer to Haiti and Jamaica.

Hurricane Erin Moves North of Dominican Republic

Hurricane Erin moved north of the Dominican Republic on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 68.5°W which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) east of Grand Turk Island.  Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around an existing eye and eyewall in the core of Hurricane Erin.  Concentric eyewalls formed.  Hurricane Erin weakened as the inflow became concentrated in the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall started to weaken.  The inner eyewall was still visible in satellite and radar images.  The presence of concentric eyewalls means that Hurricane Erin is still in an eyewall replacement cycle.

The outer eyewall in Hurricane Erin has a diameter of 45 miles (75 km).  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Erin are generating strong upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The formation of concentric eyewalls increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.2.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The eyewall replacement cycle is likely to prevent Hurricane Erin from intensifying quickly.  However, once the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall starts to contract, Erin could strengthen rapidly.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass northeast of the Turks and Caicos and the Southeast Bahamas on Monday.

Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas.  Bands in the southern side of Erin’s circulation could drop heavy rain on parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Major Hurricane Beryl Nears Jamaica

Major Hurricane Beryl neared Jamaica on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Campeche, Mexico.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl was still a major hurricane on Wednesday morning.   Although the eye appeared cloud filled on visible satellite images, the reconnaissance aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.   Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady during Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl pass near the southern coast of Jamaica on Wednesday afternoon.  Beryl will begin to affect the Cayman Islands later on Wednesday evening.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is likely to pass just south of Jamaica during the next few hours.  Much of Jamaica could experience winds to hurricane force.  The strongest winds will occur along the southern coast of Jamaica.   Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl Moves Closer to Jamaica

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl moved closer to Jamaica on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 72.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (400 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft continued to fly reconnaissance into Hurricane Beryl on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.2.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect Jamaica by Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night.  Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

 

 

Powerful Hurricane Beryl Moves Toward Jamaica

Powerful Hurricane Beryl moved over the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 68.9°W which put the center about 555 miles (895 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft determined that Hurricane Beryl was still a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.7.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level trough over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move toward Jamaica.  The core of Beryl’s could reach Jamaica by late Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Beryl Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Beryl intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 64.9°W which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A NOAA research aircraft determined on Monday evening that Hurricane Beryl had intensified to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl remained relatively constant during Monday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.6.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

The eye of Hurricane Beryl moved over Carriacou Island earlier on Monday.  There were reports of significant damage on that island.  The core of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the north of Grenada.  A weather station at Maurice Bishop International airport in Grenada (TGPY) reported a sustained wind speed of 92 m.p.h. (148 km/h) and a wind gust of 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl could intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Wednesday and Beryl is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move toward Jamaica.  Beryl could reach Jamaica on Wednesday.  Hurricane Beryl will pass south of Puerto Rico on Tuesday morning.  Beryl will move south of Hispaniola later on Tuesday.

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Batters the Grenadine Islands

Hurricane Beryl battered the Grenadine Islands on Monday.  At 12:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 61.5°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) west of Carriacou Island.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

A Hurricane Watch was is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl intensified rapidly after it completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.1.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in intensity and just a little smaller than Hurricane Ida was when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move away from the Windward Islands during the next few hours.  Beryl will pass south of Puerto Rico on Tuesday.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is passing over the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl is capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in Grenada, St. Vincent, and St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique. Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Tobago and Martinique.  The wind speeds should diminish in Barbados and Trinidad as Hurricane Beryl moves farther away..

 

 

 

 

Hurricane Beryl Nears the Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl neared the Windward Islands on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 60.5°W which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of Grenada.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl quickly completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  Beryl began to intensify again after completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will hit Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.

The core of Hurricane Beryl will pass very close to Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Barbados and Trinidad.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Chris brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Chris was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 97.7°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Approaches Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Windward Islands on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Barbados.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Dominica.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall.  Concentric eyewalls were likely forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was in equilibrium with the inflow of mass near the surface and the surface pressure was nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl also remained nearly steady on Sunday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.6.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Although Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification, Beryl is likely to weaken during the next few hours.  Concentric eyewalls will likely lead to an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  During an Eyewall Replacement Cycle the inner eyewall weakens and dissipates.  Since the maximum wind speeds occur in the inner eyewall, Hurricane Beryl will weaken, at least temporarily, when that happens.  Beryl could strengthen again after the Eyewall Replacement Cycle is over.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass between Barbados and Tobago early on Monday.  Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands later on Monday morning.

The core of Hurricane Beryl could pass very close to St. Lucia, Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also produce strong winds and heavy rain in Barbados, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Trinidad and Dominica.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Chris formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 96.2°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz, Mexico.