Fausto Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Fausto strengthened to a hurricane on Monday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 117.3°W which put the center about 745 miles (1200 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Fausto strengthened to a hurricane on Monday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fausto’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Fausto.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Fausto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fausto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Fausto.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the southern half of Hurricane Fausto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the northern half of Fausto’s circulation.

Hurricane Fausto will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Fausto will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fausto could strengthen to a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Hurricane Fausto will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Bertha

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Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Bertha over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday evening.  A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for a portion of the central Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Berth was located at latitude 28.2°N and longitude 8593°W which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  Bertha was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from border between Florida and Alabama to the border between Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for New Orleans.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between Gulf County and Bay County in Florida to the border with Alabama.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday evening.  Reconnaissance planes found winds to tropical storm force in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation.

The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Storm Bertha.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Bertha’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Bertha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Monday.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Bertha’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Storm Bertha were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bertha could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly toward the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Bertha could bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from border between Alabama and Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Tropical Storm Fausto Develops South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Fausto developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 112.7°W which put the center about 750 miles (1205 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Six-E strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fausto.

Tropical Storm Fausto was strengthening gradually on Sunday afternoon.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Fausto’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Fausto.  Bands in the eastern side of Fausto’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fausto began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Fausto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Fausto’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Fausto were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move through and environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Fausto will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fausto is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fausto will move farther away from Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Elida was weakening slowly as it churned west of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 125.9°W which put the center about 1015 miles (1635 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Depression Forms over Eastern Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical Depression Two formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Northwest Florida.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Two was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 85.3°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for a portion of the coast of Northwest Florida from the Ochlockonee River to the border with Alabama.

A low pressure system over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression Two was designated when the circulation around a low pressure system previously designated at Invest 91L exhibited more organization.  A distinct low level of circulation was observed on visible satellite images.  Thunderstorms began to form near the low level center.  Other thunderstorms also were developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression Two will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under northwestern part of an upper level low that is near the Florida Peninsula.  The upper low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Two could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two will move slowly toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Depression Two could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast during the upcoming week.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Elida Starts to Weaken

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Tropical Storm Elida started to weaken on Saturday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 124.8°W which put the center about 970 miles (1560 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Elida started to weaken on Saturday evening after Elida had strengthened almost to hurricane intensity earlier in the day.  Tropical Storm Elida started to move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures which is what caused Elida to weaken.  The cooler Sea Surface Temperatures were already starting to affect the structure of Elida’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Elida consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Elida’s circulation.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Storm Elida continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Elida’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the western half of Tropical Storm Elida.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is off the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elida’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Elida to weaken steadily on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Six-E formed south of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Depression Six-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 109.1°W which put the center about 805 miles (1290 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Depression Six-E is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by early next week.

Low Pressure over Eastern Gulf of Mexico

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A low pressure system formed over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of The low pressure system was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west of St. Petersburg, Florida.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

The U.S. National Weather Service designated the low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as Invest 91L.

A large but weak surface low pressure system formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  The circulation around the low pressure system covered much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  There were several smaller counterclockwise circulations rotating around the periphery of the large surface low.  Those smaller circulations had formed inside clusters of thunderstorms.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of the large surface low.  There were several broken bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the large low.

The large low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under northern part of an upper level low that is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper low will produce easterly winds that will blow across the top of the surface low pressure system.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical depression, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent that formation.  The U.S. National Hurricane is indicating the probability is 40% that a tropical depression forms.

The low pressure system will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the surface low pressure will move toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Elida Churns Northwest

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Tropical Cyclone Elida churned toward the northwest over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 121.9°E which put the center about 875 miles (1410 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Elida maintained its intensity on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Elida’s circulation.  However, the circulation around Elida appeared to pull some drier air into the eastern side of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms in some of the bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elida weakened.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida also still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Friday.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Elida was still asymmetrical on Friday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern side of Elida’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Elida.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida could still intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Elida is likely to start to weaken on Sunday when it moves over cooler water.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Elida Spins Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Elida was spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 117.4°E which put the center about 695 miles (1120 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Elida intensified gradually on Friday as it spun west of Baja California.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were blowing in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the eastern half of Elida’s circulation.  The winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Elida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Elida is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Elida Develops South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Elida developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean South of Baja California on Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 111.8°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Tuesday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elida.

Numerous thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Elida early on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Elida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Elida’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Elida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Elida could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will move farther away from the southern part of Baja California.

Typhoon Bavi Hits Eastern China

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Typhoon Bavi hit the east coast of China near Wenzhou on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 28.1°N and longitude 121.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) east of Wenzhou, China.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

The center of Typhoon Bavi made landfall on the east coast of China east of Wenzhou on Saturday.  Typhoon Bavi was the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.

The strongest winds were blowing in the eastern side of Typhoon Bavi which was still over the East China Sea.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of Bavi’s circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.8.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.  Typhoon Bavi is a little smaller than Sandy was.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will continue to move inland over Zhejiang.  The center of Bavi’s circulation will pass west of Shanghai on Sunday.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang during the next few hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.5 meters) along parts of the east coast of China.

Typhoon Bavi will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over eastern China.  Even so, Typhoon Bavi will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Jiangsu as it moves farther to the north on Sunday.