Tropical Storm Polo Forms South of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Polo formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Polo.

More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Polo on Sunday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Polo’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Polo began to generate upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Polo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern half of Polo’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Polo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Polo will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Polo could intensify rapidly after an inner core forms.

Tropical Storm Polo will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Polo slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Polo will move a little closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys was gradually strengthening far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1350 miles (2170 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Typhoon Dujuan South of Honshu

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The center of Typhoon Dujuan was south of Honshu on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 139.5°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened back to a typhoon as it moved south of Honshu on Sunday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the eastern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Typhoon Dujuan.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify on Monday.  Dujuan will move into a region where the upper level winds are stronger on Tuesday.  The stronger upper level winds will cause Typhoon Dujuan to start to weaken.  The stronger upper level winds will also cause Dujuan to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass just south of Tokyo in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Tokyo and eastern Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Fay Strengthens

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Tropical Storm Fay strengthened on Sunday afternoon as it moved over the North Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 34.4°N and longitude 32.7°W which put the center about 405 miles (650 km) southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the north-northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Fay strengthened on Sunday afternoon.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Fay’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Fay.  Storms near the center of Fay generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fay was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Fay’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fay will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move north of a subtropical jet stream.  Fay will stay south of the polar front jet stream.  The upper level winds are weaker between the two jet streams. There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fay could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.  Fay could strengthen to a hurricane.  The upper level winds are forecast to be stronger on Monday, which will cause Fay to start to weaken.

The steering currents are weak between the subtropical jet stream and the polar front jet stream.  Tropical Storm Fay is likely to meander during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fay will remain far to the southwest of the Azores.

Tropical Storm Odalys Forms Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Odalys formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 124.5°W which put the center about 1245 miles (2005 km) southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California strengthened on Saturday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Odalys.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Odalys on Saturday night.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands in the southern and western parts of Odalys’ circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Odlays consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Odalys started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Odalys.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern side of Odalys’ circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Odalys were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Odalys will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Odalys will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level low that is southwest of Baja California.  The upper level low will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Odalys’ circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear will probably not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Odalys is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Odalys could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Odalys will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is west of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Odalys toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Odalys will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Fay Develops Southwest of the Azores

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Tropical Storm Fay developed southwest of the Azores on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 33.1°W which put the center about 450 miles (730 km) southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Six strengthened on Saturday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fay.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Fay on Saturday night.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Fay’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fay generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fay was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Fay’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fay will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move north of a subtropical jet stream.  Fay will stay south of the polar front jet stream.  The upper level winds are weaker between the two jet streams. There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fay will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Fay could rapidly intensify to a hurricane.  The upper level winds are forecast to be stronger on Monday, which will cause Fay to start to weaken.

The steering currents are weak between the subtropical jet stream and the polar front jet stream.  Tropical Storm Fay is likely to meander during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fay will remain far to the southwest of the Azores.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Moves Toward Honshu

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Tropical Storm Dujuan moved toward Honshu on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 137.5°E which put the center about 475 miles (760 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Former Typhoon Dujuan weakened slightly on Saturday.  The circulation around Dujuan pulled some drier air into the eastern side of the tropical storm.  Some of the thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Dujuan weakened.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the other parts of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Saturday.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dujuan was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Dujuan could intensify a little on Sunday.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass just south of Tokyo in a little over 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Tokyo and eastern Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Forms Southwest of the Azores

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A tropical depression formed over the North Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 33.6°W which put the center about 525 miles (845 km) southwest of the Azores.  The tropical depression was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A low pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores strengthened on Saturday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Six.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Six was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of the tropical depression.  Bands in the southern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Six will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move north of a subtropical jet stream.  The tropical depression will stay south of the polar front jet stream.  The upper level winds are weaker between the two jet streams.  There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Six could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The steering currents are weak between the subtropical jet stream and the polar front jet stream.  Tropical Depression Six is likely to meander during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Six will remain far to the southwest of the Azores.

Dujuan Strengthens to a Typhoon

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Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened to a typhoon on Friday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 139.4°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) northwest of Iwo To.  Dujuan was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened to a typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern side of the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Typhoon Dujuan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring close to the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the northern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern half of Dujuan’s circulation.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is southeast of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Dujuan will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dujuan toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Dujuan will move closer to Honshu during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Moves East of Iwo To

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Tropical Storm Dujuan moved east of Iwo To on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 143.8°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) east of Iwo To.  Dujuan was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened on Thursday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Iwo To.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Dujuan.  Bands in the southern half of Dujuan’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dujuan was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level low that is south of Iwo To.  The upper level low will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Dujuan could intensify to a typhoon during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low that is south of Iwo To will pull Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass north of Iwo To on Friday.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Iwo To on Friday.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Forms Northeast of Marianas

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Tropical Storm Dujuan formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Marianas on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 149.5°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Dujuan was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Marianas strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Dujuan.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Dujuan was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Dujuan’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Dujian consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern part of Tropical Storm Dujuan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the southern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Storm Dujuan were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of the Marianas.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Dujuan is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low that is north of the Marianas will pull Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dujuan will move north of the Marianas.  The center of Dujuan could be near Iwo To in 48 hours.