Tropical Cyclone Narelle Intensifies Again

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified again on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Onslow.  That Warning includes Port Hedland and Karratha.  A Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Leveque to Beagle Bay.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Carnarvon.  The Watch includes Exmouth and Coral Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle started to intensify again on Tuesday as it moved north of the coast of Western Australia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A new eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle began to generate more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Narelle became more symmetrical as more of the circulation moved back over water.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.

ropical Cyclone Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over Western Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narelle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move parellel to the coast of Western Australia during the next day or so.  Narelle will move toward the south on Thursday when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Moves Back Over Water

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle moved back over water near the coast of Western Australia on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 124.3°E which put the center about 225 miles (360 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay.  Another Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Wallal Downs.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Exmouth to De Grey.  The Watch includes Onslow, Karratha, and Port Hedland.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle moved back over water near Kuri Bay on Monday evening.  Thunderstorms were developing in bands in the western side of Narelle’s circulation that were already over water.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Narelle were still over Western Australia.  Those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Narelle was also being affected by the fact that about half of Narelle’s circulation was still over Western Australia.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The winds in the southern side of Narelle’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over Western Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narelle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move over water north of the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the northern coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North Kimberley Rivers, the West Kimberley Rivers and the East Kimberley Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Moves over Joseph Bonaparte Gulf

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle moved over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf north of the border between the northern Territory and Western Australia on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 14.7°S and longitude 128.6°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mitchell Plateau to the border between Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to the Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm during the 36 hours it was over the Northern Territory in Australia.  The northern side of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was over the Joseph Bonapart Gulf.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Narelle’s circulation.   The southern half of Narelle’s circulation was still over land.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Narelle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds in Tropical Cyclone Narelle were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms that were over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The winds in the southern half of Narelle’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force, because that part of Narelle was still over land.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move near the northern coast of Western Australia.  The center of Narelle is likely to move back over land during much of the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is unlikely to intensify much during the next 24 hours because the center will be overland.  Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification in a day or so when the center moves north of the coast of Western Australia.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over northern Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the northern coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North Kimberley Rivers, the West Kimberley Rivers and the East Kimberley Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Hits Australia’s Northern Territory

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle hit the Northern Territory in Australia on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 136.2°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) northwest of Alyangula, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Milingimbi to Nathan River.  The Warning includes Nhulunbuy.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the King George River to the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified before it made landfall in the Northern Territory.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Narelle’s circulation at the time of landfall.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle increased a little when Narelle intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle was similar in intensity to Hurricane Beryl when Beryl hit Texas in 2024.  Narelle was bigger than Beryl was.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move across the Northern Territory.  The center of Narelle will pass south of Katherine in 12 hours.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle will be south of Darwin in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will weaken steadily as it moves across the Northern Territory.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Northern Territory.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Top End of Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Moves over Gulf of Carpentaria

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle has passed over the Cape York Peninsula and Narelle is now over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 140.3°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) east of Alyangula, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur.  A Warning also remains in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Cape Keerweer.  That Warning includes Weipa.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Watch for the portion of the coast of the Northern Territory from west of Nhulunbuy to Ramingining.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened as it moved across the central part of the Cape York Peninsula.  However, the circulation around Narelle was still intact.  A well defined center of circulation was visible on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A little drier air did appear to be pulled into the southwestern part of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle decreased as Narelle weakened.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify again during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will coast of the Northern Territory in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Northern Territory heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Narelle will also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Top End of Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Hits Cape York Peninsula

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle hit the Cape York Peninsula northwest of Cape Melville on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 142.5°E which put the center about 50 miles (85 km) northwest of Coen, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Melville.  The Warning includes Coen.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened after it moved over the Cape York Peninsula, the circulation around Narelle was still intact.  A well defined center of circulation was visible on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was still very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.1. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to weaken during the next few hours while the center is over the Cape York Peninsula.  Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify again when it moves over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move over the Gulf of Carpentaria in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula during the next few hours.  Narelle will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Nears Cape York Peninsula

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle was nearing the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 144.9°E which put the center about 230 miles (370 km) north of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.  The Warning includes Coen and Cooktown.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port Mcarthur.

A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle increased on Wednesday night.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 50.0.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will hit the coast of Queensland northwest of Cape Melville in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula.  Narelle will be capable of causing severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast near where the center of circulation makes landfall.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 147.2°E which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.  The Warning includes Coen and Cooktown.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port Mcarthur.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.2.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Narelle is bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Narelle will be capable of causing severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast near where the center of circulation makes landfall.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Prompts Warning for Cape York Peninsula

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The risks posed by Tropical Cyclone Narelle prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for part of the Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 149.9°E which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the coast of Queensland that was in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Weipa to Kowanyama.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle was strengthening as it moved toward the coast of Queensland.

A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to  tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over the Coral Sea on Tuesday evening.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 153.3°E which put the center about 600 miles (970 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch that was in effect for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Lockhart River to Port Douglas.  The Watch extended across the central Cape York Peninsula to the Gulf of Carpentaria.  The Watch was in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Weipa to Kowanyama.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A small eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 35 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.