Tropical Depression Forms over Eastern Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical Depression Two formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Northwest Florida.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Two was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 85.3°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for a portion of the coast of Northwest Florida from the Ochlockonee River to the border with Alabama.

A low pressure system over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression Two was designated when the circulation around a low pressure system previously designated at Invest 91L exhibited more organization.  A distinct low level of circulation was observed on visible satellite images.  Thunderstorms began to form near the low level center.  Other thunderstorms also were developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression Two will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under northwestern part of an upper level low that is near the Florida Peninsula.  The upper low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Two could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two will move slowly toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Depression Two could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast during the upcoming week.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Elida Starts to Weaken

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Tropical Storm Elida started to weaken on Saturday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 124.8°W which put the center about 970 miles (1560 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Elida started to weaken on Saturday evening after Elida had strengthened almost to hurricane intensity earlier in the day.  Tropical Storm Elida started to move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures which is what caused Elida to weaken.  The cooler Sea Surface Temperatures were already starting to affect the structure of Elida’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Elida consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Elida’s circulation.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Storm Elida continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Elida’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the western half of Tropical Storm Elida.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is off the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elida’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Elida to weaken steadily on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Six-E formed south of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Depression Six-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 109.1°W which put the center about 805 miles (1290 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Depression Six-E is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by early next week.

Low Pressure over Eastern Gulf of Mexico

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A low pressure system formed over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of The low pressure system was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west of St. Petersburg, Florida.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

The U.S. National Weather Service designated the low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as Invest 91L.

A large but weak surface low pressure system formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  The circulation around the low pressure system covered much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  There were several smaller counterclockwise circulations rotating around the periphery of the large surface low.  Those smaller circulations had formed inside clusters of thunderstorms.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of the large surface low.  There were several broken bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the large low.

The large low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under northern part of an upper level low that is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper low will produce easterly winds that will blow across the top of the surface low pressure system.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical depression, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent that formation.  The U.S. National Hurricane is indicating the probability is 40% that a tropical depression forms.

The low pressure system will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the surface low pressure will move toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Elida Churns Northwest

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Tropical Cyclone Elida churned toward the northwest over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 121.9°E which put the center about 875 miles (1410 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Elida maintained its intensity on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Elida’s circulation.  However, the circulation around Elida appeared to pull some drier air into the eastern side of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms in some of the bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elida weakened.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida also still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Friday.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Elida was still asymmetrical on Friday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern side of Elida’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Elida.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida could still intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Elida is likely to start to weaken on Sunday when it moves over cooler water.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Elida Spins Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Elida was spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 117.4°E which put the center about 695 miles (1120 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Elida intensified gradually on Friday as it spun west of Baja California.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were blowing in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the eastern half of Elida’s circulation.  The winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Elida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Elida is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Elida Develops South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Elida developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean South of Baja California on Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 111.8°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Tuesday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elida.

Numerous thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Elida early on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Elida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Elida’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Elida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Elida could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will move farther away from the southern part of Baja California.

Typhoon Bavi Hits Eastern China

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Typhoon Bavi hit the east coast of China near Wenzhou on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 28.1°N and longitude 121.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) east of Wenzhou, China.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

The center of Typhoon Bavi made landfall on the east coast of China east of Wenzhou on Saturday.  Typhoon Bavi was the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.

The strongest winds were blowing in the eastern side of Typhoon Bavi which was still over the East China Sea.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of Bavi’s circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.8.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.  Typhoon Bavi is a little smaller than Sandy was.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will continue to move inland over Zhejiang.  The center of Bavi’s circulation will pass west of Shanghai on Sunday.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang during the next few hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.5 meters) along parts of the east coast of China.

Typhoon Bavi will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over eastern China.  Even so, Typhoon Bavi will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Jiangsu as it moves farther to the north on Sunday.

Typhoon Bavi Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Bavi brought wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 124.1°E which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Bavi was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

A weather station in Ishigakijima Island reported at sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  A weather station in Nakasuji, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

Typhoon Bavi strengthened a little as it approached the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Concentric eyewalls appeared for a time on radar images from the Japan Meteorological Agency.  A small inner eye and eyewall was surrounded by a much larger outer eyewall that was a remnant from the last eyewall replacement cycle.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Typhoon Bavi continued to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mostly in bands in the southern half of Bavi’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Typhoon Bavi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated more upper level divergence.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday.

Typhoon Bavi continued to be a very large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (595 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 48.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 62.1.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi will move through a region of drier air that is near eastern of Chin.a  The drier air will inhibit intensification.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the east coast of China near Wenzhou in 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the east coast of China.

Typhoon Bavi Approaches Southern Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Bavi was approaching the southern Ryukyu Islands on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 126.9°E which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Bavi weakened on Thursday when it moved into a region of drier air that was east of Taiwan.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in the northern half of Bavi’s circulation to dissipate.  Bands in the northern side of Typhoon Bavi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Thursday.

The inner end of a rainband was wrapping back around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Typhoon Bavi on Thursday evening.  A new small eye appeared to be developing at the center of Bavi’s circulation.

Even though Typhoon Bavi weakened on Thursday, it continued to be a very large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (595 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 57.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 70.2.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.  Typhoon Bavi is larger than Hurricane Sandy was.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi will continue to move through a region of drier air that is east of Taiwan.  The drier air will inhibit intensification, but drier air may have less of an effect on Friday.  Typhoon Bavi could intensify during the next 24 hours, especially if a new eye and eyewall develop at the center of Bavi’s circulation.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 18 hours.  The center of Bavi will be near northeastern Taiwan in 24 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could cause a storms surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan.

Typhoon Bavi Moves Toward Southern Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Bavi continued to move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 129.6°E which put the center about 605 miles (975 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The cumulative effects of multiple eyewall replacement cycles caused Typhoon Bavi to weaken on Wednesday.  The most recent inner eyewall weakened and a much larger eye with a diameter of 70 miles (110 km) formed at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The large eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased again on Wednesday.

The effects of the multiple eyewall replacement cycles also created a very large circulation around typhoon Bavi.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 335 miles (540 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 54.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 78.5.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Katrina when Katrina hit Mississippi in 2005.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Katrina was.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be somewhat unfavorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Typhoon Bavi will move into a region of drier air that is east of Taiwan.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the northwestern part of Bavi’s circulaiton.  Typhoon Bavi is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of the drier air and the lingering effects of the eyewall replacement cycles.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 36 hours.  The center of Bavi will be near northeastern Taiwan in 48 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could cause a storms surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along the coast of the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan.