Typhoon Mekkhala Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

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Typhoon Mekkhala rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mekkhala was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 127.4°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Mekkhala was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Typhoon Mekkhala rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Typhoon Mekkhala became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mekkhala is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 30.6.  Typhoon Mekkhala is similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Mekkhala is a little smaller than Delta was.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mekhala will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mekkhala will move closer to northern Luzon. Mekkhala is likely to move more slowly in a couple of days when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  Typhoon Mekkhala is also likely to move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system

Mekkhala Strengthens to a Typhoon

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Former Tropical Storm Mekkhala strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mekkhala was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 131.3°E which put the center about 710 miles (1145 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Mekkhala was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Mekkhala strengthened to a typhoon on Saturday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern half of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Mekkhala’s circulation.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Mekhala will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next few days.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mekkhala will move toward northern Luzon.  Mekkhala is likely to move more slowly in a couple of days when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Storm Mekkhala Develops North of Yap

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Tropical Storm Mekkhala developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean north of Yap on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Mekkhala was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 138.0°E which put the center about 315 miles (510 km) north of Yap. Mekkhala was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Former Tropical Depression 07W strengthened north of Yap on Friday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated it as Tropical Storm Mekkhala.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Mekkhala on Friday.  More thunderstorms also formed in the bands revolving around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Despite the fact that Tropical Storm Mekkhala strengthened on Friday, the distribution of wind speeds was very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out only 25 miles (40 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Mekkhala.

Tropical Storm Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Mekhala will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala is likely to strengthen to a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mekkhala will move away from Yap.

Tropical Depression Forms West of Guam

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Tropical Depression 07W formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean west-southwest of Guam on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 07W was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 142.5°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) west-southwest of Guam.  Tropical Depression 07W was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean west-southwest of Guam strengthened on Thursday night and both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center classified the system as a tropical depression.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression 07W was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical depression.  Bands in the northern half of Tropical Depression 07W consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Depression 07W will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression 07W is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Depression 07W will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression 07W will move away from the Marianas.

Tropical Storm Arthur Weakens

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Former Tropical Storm Arthur weakened on Wednesday evening as it moved along the coast near Galveston, Texas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Arthur was located at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 94.5°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north-northeast of Galveston, Texas.  Arthur was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Depression Arthur on Wednesday evening.  The upper level winds blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Arthur.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern periphery of Arthur’s circulation.  The other bands revolving around the center of Arthur consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Arthur will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Arthur toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Arthur will move near the border between Texas and Louisiana on Thursday.  Arthur will start to move toward the east by Friday.

Tropical Depression Arthur could interact with a stationary front to drop heavy rain over parts of the Southeast U.S.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Arthur Develops Near Texas Coast

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Tropical Storm Arthur developed near the coast of Texas on Wednesday morning.  At 12:30 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located at latitude 28.8°N and longitude 95.5°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) southwest of Galveston, Texas. Arthur was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City Louisiana.

A low pressure system near the coast of Texas, formerly called Potential Tropical Cyclone One, strengthened on Wednesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Arthur.

The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern sides of Tropical Storm Arthur.

A weather station in Galveston, Texas, (KGLS) reported a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

NOAA buoy 42035 which is east of Galveston, Texas reported a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (83 km/h).

A weather station on oil platform Galveston 209A (KGVW) reported a sustained wind speed of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h) and a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  It should be noted that the weather station is 121 feet (37 meters) above sea level.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Arthur was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Arthur’s circulation.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Arthur consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The surface center of Tropical Storm Arthur appeared to be east of a low in the middle troposphere based on visible satellite loops.  The middle level low was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Arthur’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Arthur.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern half of Arthur’s circulation.  Winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Arthur were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Arthur toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Arthur will move inland near the border between Texas and Louisiana in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Arthur will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the central U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arthur’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Storm Arthur could intensify during the next few hours before it makes landfall in Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Arthur will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the southeastern U.S.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Arthur could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Louisiana

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The potential risk posed by a low pressure system near Corpus Christi, Texas prompted the U.S. National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of Louisiana on Tuesday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center has designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 97.3°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) south-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent, Texas to Sabine Pass, Louisiana.

The National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system over South Texas as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Tuesday. The distribution of thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone One was still asymmetrical on Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands that were over the Gulf of Mexico. Bands in the western half of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to slowly decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northeast during the next 24 hours . On its anticipated track, the low pressure system could move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

If Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, it will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical storm.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 70% that a tropical depression or a tropical storm forms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Reconnaissance planes have been tentatively tasked to fly into the the low pressure system on Wednesday, if necessary.

The low pressure system has already dropped heavy rain over parts of South Texas and northern Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for South Texas, southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Texas and Louisiana

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The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over South Texas prompted the U.S. National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Texas and Louisiana on Tuesday.  The National Hurricane Center also designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.19°N and longitude 97.8°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

The National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system over South Texas as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Tuesday.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone One was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands that were over the Gulf of Mexico.  Bands in the western half of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to slowly decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the low pressure system could move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

If Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, it will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical storm.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 70% that a tropical depression or a tropical storm forms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Reconnaissance planes have been tentatively tasked to fly into the the low pressure system on Tuesday night and Wednesday, if necessary.

The low pressure system has already dropped heavy rain over parts of South Texas and northern Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for South Texas, southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, and the southern half of Mississippi.

Low Pressure over South Texas

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A low pressure system formed over South Texas on Monday evening.  The low pressure system was designated as Invest 90L by the U.S. National Weather Service.  At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of a low pressure system was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 99.3°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of Laredo, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (35 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

An upper level low interacting with the northern end of a tropical wave caused a surface low pressure system to form over South Texas on Monday evening.  The low pressure system was evident on surface weather maps which showed a weak counterclockwise rotation over southern Texas.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the western and southern parts of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system could move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

If the low pressure system moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, it will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical storm.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 60% that a tropical storm forms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Reconnaissance planes have been tentatively tasked to fly into the the low pressure system on Tuesday night and Wednesday, if necessary.

The low pressure system has already dropped heavy rain over parts of South Texas and northern Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for South Texas, southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, and southern Mississippi.

 

Cristina Weakens to a Tropical Depression

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Former Tropical Storm Cristina weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Cristina was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 88.9°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southeast of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Cristina was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the entire coast of El Salvador.

Former Tropical Storm Cristina weakened to a tropical depression south of El Salvador on Wednesday afternoon.  An upper level ridge over Mexico was producing northerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Cristina’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused some of the thunderstorms in former Tropical Storm Cristina to dissipate.  The wind shear also caused Cristina to weaken to a tropical depression.

Some of the thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Depression Cristina dissipated on Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in a band southwest of the center of Cristina’s circulation.  Other thunderstorms were still occurring in a band in the northeastern part of Tropical Depression Cristina.  The thunderstorms in Cristina generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Cristina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Cristina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  The upper level ridge that is over Mexico will continue to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Cristina’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The intensity of Tropical Depression Cristina is not likely to change much during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Depression Cristina will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Cristina toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Cristina will reach the coast of El Salvador during Wednesday night.

Tropical Depression Cristina will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to El Salvador and to southern Guatemala.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.