Tropical Storm Gonzalo Buffets Cabo Verde Islands

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo buffeted the Cabo Verde Islands with gusty winds and locally heavy rain on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 22.7°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of Sal, Cabo Verde.   Gonzalo was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Even though Tropical Storm Gonzalo strengthened on Friday, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Gonzalo’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Gonzalo consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Gonzalo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease a little on Friday.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Gonzalo was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the northern side of Gonzalo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Gonzalo.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gonzalo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is west of Africa.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gonzalo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.   The strong vertical wind shear will likely cause Tropical Storm Gonzalo to weaken on Saturday.

The upper level trough that is west of Africa will pull Tropical Storm Gonzalo toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will start to move away from the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Fay continued to spin over the central North Atlantic.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 43.0°W which put the center about 1075 miles (1730 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Polo Strengthens Back to Cat. 5 Again

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Hurricane Polo strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale again early on Friday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.

At 9:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 108.2°W which put the center about 415 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 908 mb.

Hurricane Polo strengthened back to Category 5 early on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to decrease again early  on Friday.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 42.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.3.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for a  very powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify more during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle begins.  An upper level trough that is approaching the West Coast of the U.S. will start to cause more vertical wind shear during the weekend.  Hurricane Polo will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move south of Baja California on Friday.   The upper level trough that is approaching the West Coast of the U.S. will steer Polo toward the northeast during the weekend.  Polo could reach southern Baja California on Monday.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California early next week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 123.0°W which put the center about 975 miles (1570 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

Nolo Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Nolo strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Central North Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Nolo was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 155.9°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Nolo was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County including Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Hurricane Nolo.  A large circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Nolo’s circulation.  They eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Hurricane Nolo.  Bands in the eastern side of Nolo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nolo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Nolo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Nolo’s circulation.

Hurricane Nolo will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Nolo will intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  Nolo could strengthen to a major hurricane during the weekend.

The upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii will pull Hurricane Nolo slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Nolo will move closer to the Big Island of Hawaii.  A high pressure system north of Hawaii is forecast to strengthen on Saturday.  If the high pressure system strengthens, it will steer Nolo toward the west during the weekend.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Nolo could drop heavy rain on parts of the Big Island of Hawaii and on Maui.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii, Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

Hurricanes Polo and Odalys over Eastern North Pacific

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Hurricanes Polo and Odalys were spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 106.5°W which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Hurricane Polo weakened slightly on Thursday but Polo was still a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (27 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure increased on Thursday.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.2.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Polo could intensify back to Category 5 on Friday.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move south of Baja California on Friday.  Polo could reach southern Baja California on Monday.

Hurricane Polo could bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California early next week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 124.2°W which put the center about 1010 miles (1625 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forms Southeast of Cabo Verde

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday evening.  A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 22.1°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean strengthened on Thursday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gonzalo.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Gonzalo was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Gonzalo’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Gonzalo consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Gonzalo began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Gonzalo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Gonzalo’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Gonzalo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gonzalo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level trough that is west of Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gonzalo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Gonzalo could intensify a little on Friday.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over North Africa.  The high pressure system will steer Gonzalo slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will move over the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will being strong winds and heavy rain to the Cabo Verde Islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Fay continued to move west over the central North Atlantic.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 42.3°W which put the center about 1040 miles (1675 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Fay Moves West

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Tropical Storm Fay continued to move toward the west over the Central North Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 41.8°W which put the center about 1020 miles (1640 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Fay strengthened on Thursday as it moved westward over the Central North Atlantic.  Even though Fay strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms continued to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern sides of Tropical Storm Fay.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Fay’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fay generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Thursday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Fay was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Fay’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Fay.

Tropical Storm Fay will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Fay could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.  Fay will move into a region where the upper level winds are blowing from the northeast later on Friday.  Those upper level winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Fay is likely to start to weaken later on Friday when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Fay will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fay toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fay will continue to move farther away from the Azores.

Tropical Storm Surigae Forms Southeast of Ryukyu Islands

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Tropical Storm Surigae formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of the Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Surigae was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 133,7°E which put the center about 700 miles (1130 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Surigae was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of the Ryukyu Islands strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Surigae.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Surigae.  Storms were also developing in bands in the northern side of Surigae’s circulation.  The bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Surigae consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Surigae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Surigae.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Surigae’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Surigae were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Surigae will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Surigae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Surigae will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Surigae is likely to strengthen to a typhoon by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Surigae will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Surigae toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Surigae will move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Hurricane Polo Intensifies Back to Cat. 5

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Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved south of Mexico on Wednesday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 104.2°W which put the center about 240 miles (390 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 923 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after an eyewall replacement cycle was completed on Wednesday.  A new circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 49.6.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew hit South Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo could continue to intensify until another eyewall replacement cycle begins.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.

Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys continued to intensify gradually far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1205 miles (1940 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Fay Strengthens Back to a Tropical Storm

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Former Tropical Depression Fay strengthened back to a tropical storm on Wednesday evening as it moved over the North Atlantic Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 40.0°W which put the center about 935 miles (1505 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Fay strengthened back to a tropical storm on Wednesday evening.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Fay’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern and northern sides of Tropical Storm Fay.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Fay’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fay generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Fay.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of Fay’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Fay were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fay will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Fay will also move into a region where there is drier air.  The drier air will inhibit intensification, but the drier air may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fay could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fay will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fay toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fay will move farther away from the Azores.

Tropical Storm Nolo Forms South of Hawaii

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Tropical Storm Nolo formed over the Central North Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii on Wednesday afternoon.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 155.3°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Nolo was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nolo.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nolo was large.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands that curled round the northern and western sides of the center of Nolo’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Nolo consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nolo started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to begin to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nolo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Nolo’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Nolo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nolo will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear probably will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nolo is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii will pull Tropical Storm Nolo slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nolo will move closer to the Big Island of Hawaii.