Tropical Storm Sinlaku Forms Southeast of the Marianas

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Tropical Storm Sinlaku formed southeast of the Marianas on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sinlaku was located at latitude 8.4°N and longitude 151.5°E which put the center about 65 miles (105 km) north-northwest of Chuuk.  Sinlaku was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of the Marianas strengthened on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Sinlaku.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Sinlaku exhibited more organization on Thursday afternoon.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Sinlaku’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Sinlaku.  Storms near the center of Sinlaku began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Sinlaku was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Sinlaku’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Sinlaku will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Sinlaku’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Sinlaku will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Sinlaku is likely to strengthen to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Sinlaku toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Sinlaku will move away from Chuuk,  Sinlaku could approach Guam in three or four days.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over Chuuk before it moves farther away on Friday.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Weakens

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Tropical Cyclone Maila weakened over the Solomon Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 8.3°S and longitude 154.3°E which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila was continuing to weaken as it moved toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea on Thursday.  Maila continued to move slowly back over cooler water that it had mixed to the surface of the Solomon Sea earlier this week.  The remnant of a circular eye was still present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The remnant eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Maila did not change much during the past 24 hours.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 16.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.0. Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Maila is bigger than Idalia was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean continue to mix cooler water to the surface.  Maila will continue to move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean earlier this week.  The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Maila is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Maila will approach Woodlark Island in 24 hours.  Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing serious damage.  Maila could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was finishing a transition to a powerful extratropical storm as it moved toward New Zealand.  The New Zealand Met Service issued a Strong Wind Watch and a Heavy Rain Watch for the North Island.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 27.1°S and longitude 179.0°E which put the center about 625 miles (1000 km) north of Auckland New Zealand.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Moves Toward Papua New Guinea

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Tropical Cyclone Maila started to move slowly toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 8.6°S and longitude 155.6°E which put the center about 550 miles (890 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila was weakening slowly as it started to move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea on Wednesday.  Maila was moving over cooler water that it had mixed to the surface of the Solomon Sea earlier this week.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The area of the strongest winds in Tropical Cyclone Maila was a little smaller on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.8. Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.  Maila is not as big as Milton was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean continue to mix cooler water to the surface.  Maila will continue to move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean earlier this week.  The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Maila is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will approach Woodlark Island in 36 hours.  Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing serious damage.  Maila could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was making a transition to a powerful extratropical storm as it moved toward New Zealand.  The New Zealand Met Service issued a Strong Wind Watch and a Heavy Rain Watch for the North Island.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 23.9°S and longitude 177.9°E which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) south of Auckland New Zealand.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 5:00pa.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.5°S and longitude 155.9°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane as it continued to meander over the Solomon Sea on Tuesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) was present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.4.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  Maila will move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean.  The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Maila is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.

Tropical Cyclone Maila could approach Woodlark Island in less than 48 hours.  Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing major damage.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu started to weaken as it moved away from Fiji.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 21.6°S and longitude 177.3°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) south of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved slowly over the Solomon Sea on Monday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.9°S and longitude 156.5°E which put the center about 605 miles (970 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday night.  A circular eye was present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila. Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.1.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Maila is smaller than Rita was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  If enough cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean, then the cooler water could stop the intensification of Maila.  Tropical Cyclone Maila could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.  A high pressure system is forecast to develop over the Coral Sea later this week.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west after it develops.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu passed southwest of Fiji.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 175.6°E which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) southwest of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Meanders over the Solomon Sea

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Tropical Cyclone Maila continued to strengthen on Monday as it meandered over the Solomon Sea.   At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 155.6°E which put the center about 555 miles (895 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila continued to strengthen on Monday as it meandered over the Solomon Sea.  A small circular eye was at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.2.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.  Maila is bigger than Sally was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  If enough cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean, then the cooler water could stop the intensification of Maila. Tropical Cyclone Maila could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean.  If Maila intensifies it will strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu continued to intensify west of Fiji.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 174.1°E which put the center about 230 miles (375 km) west of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa Weakens

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Tropical Cyclone Indusa weakened on Sunday as it moved quickly toward the southeast over the South Indian Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 32.9°S and longitude 73.8°E which put the center about 1125 miles (1815 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Indusa was moving toward the southeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa weakened on Sunday as it move over cooler water.  In addition, an upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The effects of the cooler water and strong vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Indusa to weaken.

The strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere blew the top half of Tropical Cyclone Indusa to the southeast of Indusa’s low level circulation.  Bands around the low level center of Indusa’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Since the low level circulation did not generate upper level divergence, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C.  It will continue to be under the eastern part of the upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Indusa to continue to weaken on Monday.  The cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Indusa to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Indusa toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will continue to move quickly farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it meandered over the Solomon Sea on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 154.7°E which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Maila increased as Maila intensified on Sunday.  Wind to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (285 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will intensify during the next 24 hours. Maila is could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was intensifying northwest of Fiji.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 172.6°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa Passes East of Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Indusa passed east of Rodrigues on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 70.4°E which put the center about 575 miles (930 km) east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Indusa was moving toward the south at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa strengthened on Saturday as it passed well to the east of Rodrigues.  Thunderstorms continued to form near the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Storms near the center of Indusa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Indusa became a little more asymmetrical on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Indusa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Indusa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western half of Indusa’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Indusa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Indusa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Indusa to weaken on Sunday.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Indusa toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Indusa will move rapidly farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Forms Over the Solomon Sea

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Tropical Cyclone Maila formed over the Solomon Sea on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 8.9°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Solomon Sea strengthened on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Maila.

Tropical Cyclone Maila was intensifying on Saturday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Maila’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern side of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will be in an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Maila is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.