Tropical Storm Elida Develops South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Elida developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean South of Baja California on Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 111.8°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Tuesday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elida.

Numerous thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Elida early on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Elida’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Elida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Elida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Elida’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Elida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Elida will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Elida could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Storm Elida will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Elida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Elida will move farther away from the southern part of Baja California.

Typhoon Bavi Hits Eastern China

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Typhoon Bavi hit the east coast of China near Wenzhou on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 28.1°N and longitude 121.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) east of Wenzhou, China.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

The center of Typhoon Bavi made landfall on the east coast of China east of Wenzhou on Saturday.  Typhoon Bavi was the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.

The strongest winds were blowing in the eastern side of Typhoon Bavi which was still over the East China Sea.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of Bavi’s circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.8.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.  Typhoon Bavi is a little smaller than Sandy was.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will continue to move inland over Zhejiang.  The center of Bavi’s circulation will pass west of Shanghai on Sunday.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang during the next few hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.5 meters) along parts of the east coast of China.

Typhoon Bavi will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over eastern China.  Even so, Typhoon Bavi will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Jiangsu as it moves farther to the north on Sunday.

Typhoon Bavi Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Bavi brought wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 124.1°E which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Bavi was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

A weather station in Ishigakijima Island reported at sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  A weather station in Nakasuji, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

Typhoon Bavi strengthened a little as it approached the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Concentric eyewalls appeared for a time on radar images from the Japan Meteorological Agency.  A small inner eye and eyewall was surrounded by a much larger outer eyewall that was a remnant from the last eyewall replacement cycle.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Typhoon Bavi continued to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mostly in bands in the southern half of Bavi’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Typhoon Bavi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated more upper level divergence.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday.

Typhoon Bavi continued to be a very large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (595 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 48.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 62.1.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi will move through a region of drier air that is near eastern of Chin.a  The drier air will inhibit intensification.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the east coast of China near Wenzhou in 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the east coast of China.

Typhoon Bavi Approaches Southern Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Bavi was approaching the southern Ryukyu Islands on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 126.9°E which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Bavi weakened on Thursday when it moved into a region of drier air that was east of Taiwan.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in the northern half of Bavi’s circulation to dissipate.  Bands in the northern side of Typhoon Bavi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Thursday.

The inner end of a rainband was wrapping back around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Typhoon Bavi on Thursday evening.  A new small eye appeared to be developing at the center of Bavi’s circulation.

Even though Typhoon Bavi weakened on Thursday, it continued to be a very large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (595 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 57.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 70.2.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.  Typhoon Bavi is larger than Hurricane Sandy was.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi will continue to move through a region of drier air that is east of Taiwan.  The drier air will inhibit intensification, but drier air may have less of an effect on Friday.  Typhoon Bavi could intensify during the next 24 hours, especially if a new eye and eyewall develop at the center of Bavi’s circulation.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 18 hours.  The center of Bavi will be near northeastern Taiwan in 24 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could cause a storms surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan.

Typhoon Bavi Moves Toward Southern Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Bavi continued to move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 129.6°E which put the center about 605 miles (975 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The cumulative effects of multiple eyewall replacement cycles caused Typhoon Bavi to weaken on Wednesday.  The most recent inner eyewall weakened and a much larger eye with a diameter of 70 miles (110 km) formed at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The large eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased again on Wednesday.

The effects of the multiple eyewall replacement cycles also created a very large circulation around typhoon Bavi.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 335 miles (540 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 54.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 78.5.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Katrina when Katrina hit Mississippi in 2005.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Katrina was.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be somewhat unfavorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Typhoon Bavi will move into a region of drier air that is east of Taiwan.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the northwestern part of Bavi’s circulaiton.  Typhoon Bavi is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of the drier air and the lingering effects of the eyewall replacement cycles.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 36 hours.  The center of Bavi will be near northeastern Taiwan in 48 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could cause a storms surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along the coast of the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan.

Typhoon Bavi Churns West

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Typhoon Bavi continued to churn westward toward the southern Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 134.7°E which put the center about 975 miles (1575 km) east-southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

Typhoon Bavi completed another eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday.  An circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Tuesday.

There was a large circulation around Typhoon Bavi.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 37.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 69.5. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Laura was.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan in less than 72 hours.

Typhoon Bavi Moves Away from the Marianas

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Typhoon Bavi moved away from the Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 140.4°E which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Bavi was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 921 mb.

Typhoon Bavi was in the middle of another eyewall replacement cycle on Monday afternoon.  An inner eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The inner eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall.  A larger, outer eyewall surrounded those features.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the concentric eyewalls in the middle of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less that the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Typhoon Bavi grew even larger on Monday as the eyewall replacement cycle was underway.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (480 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 36.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 69.7. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian hit Southwest Florida in 2022.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Ian was.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The eyewall replacement cycle currently underway will cause Typhoon Bavi to weaken during the next few hours.  Bavi could strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan in less than four days.

Typhoon Bavi Batters the Marianas

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Typhoon Bavi battered the Marianas on Sunday night.  The eye of Typhoon Bavi passed over Rota.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 144.4°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) northwest of Rota and about 45 miles (75 km) north of Guam.  Bavi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (335 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 906 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Alamagan.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.

The eye of Typhoon Bavi passed directly over Rota.  There have been no recent reports from the weather station on Rota.  The most recent observation from Andersen Air Force Base on Guam (PGUA) reported a sustained wind speed of 74 m.p.h. (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 92 m.p.h. (148 km/h).

Typhoon Bavi was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Typhoon Bavi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Bavi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Bavi increased on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 40.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 26.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 67.2. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria was at its maximum intensity in 2017.  Typhoon Bavi is bigger than Maria was.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Bavi to weaken temporarily again.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will move to the west of the Marianas during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Marianas on Monday.  Bavi could be capable of causing catastrophic damage.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the Marianas.

Typhoon Bavi Bears Down on the Marianas

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Typhoon Bavi was bearing down on the Marianas on Sunday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 147.6°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) east of Guam.  Bavi was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (325 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 911 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Alamagan.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bavi went through a complete eyewall replacement cycle on Saturday.  Bavi strengthened back to its previous intensify after it completed the eyewall replacement cycle.

A new circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Typhoon Bavi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Bavi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Bavi increased after the eyewall replacement cycle.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 36.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 55.9.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Bavi to weaken temporarily again.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the Marianas in 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Marianas.  Bavi could be capable of causing catastrophic damage.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the Marianas.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Maysak continued to move inland over southern China.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 108.8°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) south-southwest of Liuzhou, China.  Maysak was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

 

Bavi Causes Typhoon Warnings for Marianas

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The risk posed by Typhoon Bavi caused Typhoon Warnings to be issued for the Marianas.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 150.5°E which put the center about 405 miles (650 km) east of Guam.  Bavi was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (325 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 913 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.

A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Typhoon Bavi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Bavi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Bavi was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 36.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.0.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall and concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause  Bavi to weaken temporarily.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will reach the Marianas in 36 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Marianas.  Bavi could be capable of causing catastrophic damage.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the Marianas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Maysak was moving toward northeast Vietnam.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 107.7°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) east of Haiphong, Vietnam.  Maysak was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.