Tropical Cyclone Hayley Forms Northwest of Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Hayley formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hayley was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 320 miles (520 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Hayley was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Watch includes Derby.

A small low pressure system northwest of Australia strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Hayley.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of the low pressure system.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands in the western side of Hayley’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Hayley consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Hayley generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hayley was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hayley’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hayley will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of a small upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Hayley could intensify rapidly because its circulation is so small.  Tropical Cyclone Hayley is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Hayley toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hayley will move toward the coast of Western Australia.  Hayley is likely to reach the coast east of Broome in less than 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia east of Broome.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Gran continued to intensify.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 83.5°E which put the center about 900 miles (1450 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Grant intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 86.3°E which put the center about 1030 miles (1660 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant continued to intensify slowly on Saturday.  The circulation around Grant became more symmetrical.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Grant’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant continued to be small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass south of Diego Garcia in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Churns West

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Tropical Cyclone Grant continued to churn westward over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 11.8°S and longitude 89.7°E which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  Grant was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant strengthened a little more on Friday.  Even though Grant strengthened, the structure of its circulation did not change much.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Grant’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Bands in the northern and eastern part of Grant’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant continued to be small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  Grant could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass south of Diego Garcia in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Moves West of Cocos Islands

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Tropical Cyclone Grant moved west of the Cocos Islands on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 93.0°E which put the center about 235 miles (380 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  Grant was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant strengthened a little on Thursday as is moved west of the Cocos Islands.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Grant’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Bands in the northern and eastern part of Grant’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant continued to be small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will move farther from the Cocos Islands.  Grant is likely to pass south of Diego Garcia in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Brings Wind and Rain to Cocos Islands

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Tropical Cyclone Grant brought wind and rain to the Cocos Islands on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 11.9°S and longitude 96.2°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Grant was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A weather station in the Cocos Islands measured a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).  The weather station also recorded 4.96 inches (126 mm) of rain.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology cancelled the Warning for the Cocos Islands when Tropical Cyclone Grant began to move away on Wednesday evening.

Tropical Cyclone Grant began to intensify on Wednesday evening as it started to move west of the Cocos Islands.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Grant’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant continued to be very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will move away to the west of the Cocos Islands during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Nears Cocos Islands

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Tropical Cyclone Grant was nearing the Cocos Islands on Tuesday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 98.0°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east of the Cocos Islands.  Grant was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Grant maintained its intensity on Tuesday.   Thunderstorm activity weakened early during the day.  However, more thunderstorms developed in Tropical Cyclone Grant on Tuesday evening.  Thunderstorms near the center of Grant’s circulation began to generate more upper level divergence.  More upper level divergence will pump more mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant continued to be very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will move over the Cocos Islands during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Cocos Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Develops East of Cocos Islands

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Tropical Cyclone Grant developed over the South Indian Ocean east of the Cocos Islands on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 99.8°E which put the center about 210 miles (340 km) east of the Cocos Islands.  Grant was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the Cocos Islands.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Grant.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant on Monday.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Grant’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will reach the Cocos Islands in less than 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Cocos Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Stalls Again

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Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled again over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 93.1°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung maintained its intensity as it stalled again on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms formed in the circulation around Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Tuesday.

The distribution of wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Bakung became asymmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will  cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Bakung. However, Tropical Cyclone Bakung could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung is anticipated to meander west of the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Weakens

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Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 92.9°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Stronger vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken on Monday.  There were still thunderstorms around the center of Bakung’s circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence.  Storms near the center of Bakung pumped less mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will continue to steer Bakung toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Stalls

Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 91.0°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened a little after it stalled over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung continued to be very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken during the next 24 hours.  Because the circulation around Bakung is so small, it could weaken rapidly at times.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to steer Bakung back toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.