Tropical Storm Iselle Weakens

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Tropical Storm Iselle weakened on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 122.5°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level trough west of the West Coast of the U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing Tropical Storm Iselle to weaken.

The vertical wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Iselle to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Iselle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

The effects of the vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Iselle to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the eastern side of Iselle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will continue to move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is west of the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Iselle will move into a mass of drier air that is west of Baja California.  Tropical Storm Iselle will  continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the effects of the vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lala continued to weaken slowly far to the northwest of Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 35.2°N and longitude 177.6°W which put the center about 470 miles (760 km) north of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Typhoon Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Saudel brought wind and rain to the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 128.5°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east-northeast of Okinawa.  Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A weather station in Okinoerabu, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h).

A weather station in Imagi, Japan reported 7.75 inches (197 mm) of rain.

Typhoon Saudel was maintaining its intensity on Tuesday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Tuesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Saudel was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.7.  Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Saudel will move into a mass of drier air that is east of China.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saudel will move slowly away from the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Saudel will pass north of Taiwan in a couple of days.  Typhoon Saudel could make landfall on the east coast of China in three days.

Typhoon Saudel will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain over the Ryukyu Islands as it moves slowly away from those islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Iselle Spins Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Iselle was spinning southwest of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 118.6°W which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle strengthened on Monday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Wind to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is west of the West Coast of the U.S  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday.  In addition, Iselle will move into a mass of drier air that is west of Baja California.  Tropical Storm Iselle is likely to start to weaken on Tuesday because of the effects of the increased vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Moke weakened to a tropical depression south of Hawaii and Tropical Storm Lala weakened gradually far to the northwest of Hawaii.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Moke was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 163.0°W which put the center about 435 miles (695 km) east of Johnston Island.  Moke was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 175.6°W which put the center about 435 miles (705 km) north-northeast of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Typhoon Saudel Approaches Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Saudel was approaching the Ryukyu Islands on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 130.6°E which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) east of Okinawa.  Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Typhoon Saudel was weakening slowly as it approached the Ryukyu Islands on Monday night.  The eye was no longer visible at the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Typhoon Saudel appeared to be pulling some drier air into the western side of its circulation.  Some of the thunderstorms in the bands in the western half of Typhoon Saudel were weaker because of the drier.  Storms near the center of Saudel still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Typhoon Saudel was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 26.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.2. Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Saudel will continue to move into a mass of drier air that is east of China.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to continue to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Saudel will pass between Okinawa and Amami in 12 hours.

Typhoon Saudel is already producing strong winds and heavy rain in Minami Daito Jima.

Typhoon Saudel will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa and Amami.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Typhoon Saudel Moves Toward Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Saudel moved toward the Ryukyu Islands on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 137.2°E which put the center about 670 miles (1085 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Typhoon Saudel strengthened a little on Sunday as it moved toward the Ryukyu Islands.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Saudel’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Saudel.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Saudel increased again on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 27.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 51.1.  Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Wilma when Wilma hit South Florida in 2005.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Saudel could intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.   If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Typhoon Saudel to weaken, at least temporarily.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Saudel will approach the Ryukyu Islands in 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Iselle Forms South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Iselle formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 114.2°W which put the center about 595 miles (955 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Iselle.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Iselle was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Iselle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Wind to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is south of Baja California.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Estelle could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Moke was passing south of the Big Island of Hawaii and Tropical Storm Lala was spinning far to the northwest of Hawaii.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Moke was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 155.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) south of Hilo, Hawaii. Moke was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 173.9°W which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) northeast of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Moke Prompts Flood Watches for Hawaii

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A potential chance of heavy rain caused by Tropical Storm Moke prompted the U.S. National Weather Service to issue a Flood Watch for portions of the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Moke was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 151.1°W which put the center about 425 miles (680 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Moke was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Flood Watches are in effect for the windward and southeastern parts of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Moke strengthened a little on Saturday.  Even though Moke was a little stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Moke’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Moke consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough that was just east of Hawaii was continuing to produce southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Moke.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Moke was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Moke’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Moke.

Tropical Storm Moke will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Moke will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough just east of Hawaii will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Storm Moke will move into a mass of drier air that is south of Hawaii.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Storm Moke to start to weaken on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Moke will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is north of Hawaii.  The high pressure system will steer Moke toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Moke will start to pass south of Hawaii on Sunday.

Bands in the northern part of Tropical Storm Moke could bring gusty winds to the Big Island of Hawaii.  The strongest winds will occur at higher elevations.  Those same bands could also drop heavy rain over parts of the Big Island.  Heavy rain would likely cause flash floods because the ground is still saturated from rain caused by Hurricane Lala.

Flood Watches are in effect for the windward and southeastern parts of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Elsewhere over the Central North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Lala was weakening gradually as it moved far to the northwest of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Lala was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 172.7°W which put the center about 380 miles (614 km) east-northeast of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Typhoon Saudel Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Typhoon Saudel strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday at it moved west of the Marianas.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 144.2°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) west of Agrihan.  Saudel was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Saudel strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Saudel’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Saudel.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Saudel increased when Saudel strengthened.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.7.  Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Saudel will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Saudel could intensify rapidly at times.  Typhoon Saudel could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Saudel will pass south of Iwo To in 18 hours.  Saudel could approach the Ryukyu Islands in three days.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Moke

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Former Tropical Depression Two-C strengthened to Tropical Storm Moke southeast of Hawaii on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Moke was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 147.2°W which put the center about 660 miles (1060 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Moke was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that former Tropical Depression Two-C had strengthened on Friday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Moke.

Even though Former Tropical Depression Two-C strengthened on Friday, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Moke was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Moke’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Moke consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough that was just east of Hawaii was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Moke.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Moke was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern side of Moke’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Moke were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Moke will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Moke will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough just east of Hawaii will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Moke could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Moke will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is north of Hawaii.  The high pressure system will steer Moke toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Moke will pass south of Hawaii during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Central North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Lala moved north of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.   At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lala was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 170.4°W which put the center about 230 miles (420 km) north of Maro Reef.  Lala was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Saudel Intensifies to a Typhoon

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Former Tropical Storm Saudel intensified to a typhoon east of the Marianas on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 147.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) east-northeast of Saipan.   Saudel was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Alamagan.

A Typhoon Watch is also in effect for Alamagan.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Former Tropical Storm Saudel intensified to a typhoon on Friday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Saudel.  A circular eye formed at the center of Saudel’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Saudel.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Typhoon Saudel.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern half of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Saudel will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Saudel is likely to intensify rapidly at times.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Saudel will be near Agrihan and Pagan in less than 12 hours.

Typhoon Saudel will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Pagan and Agrihan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Saudel will also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Alamagan. Typhoon Saudel could bring gusty winds to Tinian and Saipan.