Tropical Cyclone Bakung Stalls Again

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Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled again over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 93.1°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung maintained its intensity as it stalled again on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms formed in the circulation around Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Tuesday.

The distribution of wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Bakung became asymmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will  cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Bakung. However, Tropical Cyclone Bakung could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung is anticipated to meander west of the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Weakens

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Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 92.9°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Stronger vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken on Monday.  There were still thunderstorms around the center of Bakung’s circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence.  Storms near the center of Bakung pumped less mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will continue to steer Bakung toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Stalls

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Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 91.0°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened a little after it stalled over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung continued to be very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken during the next 24 hours.  Because the circulation around Bakung is so small, it could weaken rapidly at times.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to steer Bakung back toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Bakung intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.2°S and longitude 91.4°E which put the center about 390 miles (630 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Saturday.  A very small circular eye developed at the center of Bakung’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 10 miles (15 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  Because the circulation around Bakung is so small, it could weaken rapidly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to steer Bakung back toward the east on Sunday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move back closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung Forms North of Cocos Islands

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Tropical Cyclone Bakung formed over the South Indian Ocean north of the Cocos Islands on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 94.9°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) north-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Friday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung on Friday.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bakung started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Bakung will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system tat is over Australia.  The high pressure will steer Bakung toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move farther away from the Cocos Islands during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Koto Weakens East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Koto weakened as it meandered over the South China Sea east of Vietnam on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Koto was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 111.6°E which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) east-northeast of Quy Nhon, Vietnam.  Koto was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Koto weakened on Sunday as it moved through a mass of drier air over the western part of the South China Sea.  The drier air caused thunderstorms near the center of Koto’s circulation to dissipate.  Many of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Koto consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in a couple of bands in the southern part of Koto’s circulation.

There were no thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Storm Koto to generate upper level divergence.  Mass was still converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Koto decreased as Koto weakened on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Koto’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Koto will be in an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Southeast Asia.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Storm Koto will continue to be in a region of drier air that is over the western part of the South China Sea.  The strong vertical wind shear and drier air will continue to cause Tropical Storm Koto to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Since there are no thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Storm Koto, Koto will be steered by the winds in the lower level of the atmosphere.  Koto will move around the southeastern side of a high pressure system that is over Southeast Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Koto toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Koto will move toward southern Vietnam.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was weakening on Sunday as it moved slowly over the southwestern Bay of Bengal east of southern India.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 80.6°E which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Puducherry, India.  Ditwah was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was weakening slowly on Sunday.  A few new thunderstorms developed near the center of Ditwah’s circulation.  However, most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring in a couple of bands in the northeastern periphery of Ditwah’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ditwah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ditwah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  In addition, drier air being pulled into Ditwah’s circulation is likely to limit the formation of new thunderstorms.  Tropical Cyclone Ditwah is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear and the effects of the drier air.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Ditwah slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move nearly parallel to the coast of southeast India.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will bring gusty winds and isolated heavy rain to parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Tropical Storm Koto Stalls East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Koto stalled over the South China Sea east of Vietnam on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Koto was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 112.2°E which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) east of Quy Nhon, Vietnam.  Koto was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Koto was showing signs of more organization on Saturday afternoon.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Koto’s circulation.  New thunderstorms also formed in some of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Koto.  Storms near the center of Koto were not yet generating much upper level divergence.  Mass was still converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Koto continued to be asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the western side of Koto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Koto.

Tropical Storm Koto will be in an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South China Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Storm Koto will be in a region of drier air that is over the South China Sea.  The vertical wind shear and drier air will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Koto is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.  Koto could strengthen a little if the new thunderstorms near the center of circulation begin to generate more upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Koto will start to move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over China.  The high pressure system will begin to steer Koto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Koto will start to move toward Vietnam on Sunday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Senyar was weakening south of Vietnam.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Senyar was located at latitude 6.0°N and longitude 108.9°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Senyar was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah Moves North of Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah moved north of Sri Lanka on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 80.8°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Puducherry, India.  Ditwah was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was pulling in drier air from over India.  The drier air caused the thunderstorms near the center of Ditwah’s circulation to weaken.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern and eastern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.  Bands in the other parts of Ditwah’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Even though the thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah weakened, Ditwah was still producing winds to tropical storm force.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Ditwah’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ditwah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ditwah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  However, the drier air being pulled into Ditwah’s circulation is likely to inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms.  Tropical Cyclone Ditwah could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.  However, the drier air is likely to cause Ditwah to weaken slowly during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Ditwah toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move nearly parallel to the coast of southeast India.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will bring gusty winds and isolated heavy rain to parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Tropical Storm Koto Meanders East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Koto meandered over the South China Sea east of Vietnam on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Koto was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 112.5°E which put the center about 235 miles (380 km) east-northeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam.  Koto was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Koto was maintaining its intensity on Friday.  New thunderstorms develop west of the center of Koto’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Koto consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms west of the center of Koto generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northwest of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was nearly steady.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Koto continued to be very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) in the western side of Koto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Koto.

Tropical Storm Koto will be in an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South China Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Storm Koto will continue to move through the region of drier air that is over the South China Sea.  Tropical Storm Koto in likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear and the effects of the drier air.

Tropical Storm Koto will continue to be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Koto will meander slowly over the South China Sea on Friday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Senyar moved across Malaysia and over the extreme southwestern part of the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Both the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Japan Meteorological Agency were classifying Senyar as a tropical depression.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Senyar was located at latitude 4.8°N and longitude 105.5°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) east-northeast of Kuantan, Malaysia.  Senyar was moving toward the east-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.