Tropical Storm Norbert Still Moving West

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Tropical Storm Norbert was still moving west toward the Central North Pacific Ocean on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 135.3°W which put the center about 1290 miles (2075 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Norbert was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Norbert did not change much on Sunday.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Norbert continued to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Norbert’s circulation.  Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Norbert consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Norbert still generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained steady on Sunday.

The asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Norbert also affected the distribution of wind speeds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern half of Norbert’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Norbert.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  An upper level low that is northeast of Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norbert’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Norbert will also continue to move through the mass of drier air that is east of Hawaii.  Tropical Storm Norbert is unlikely to intensify on Monday because of the moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Norbert toward the west during the next 24 hours,  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Norbert will still be far to the east of Hawaii on Monday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E formed southwest of Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 118.3°W which put the center about 680 miles (1095 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Norbert Churns West

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Tropical Storm Norbert churned west toward the Central North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 130.5°W which put the center about 1610 miles (2595 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii. Norbert was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Norbert weakened on Saturday.  A large upper level low that was northeast of Hawaii produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Norbert’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Norbert moved into a mass of drier air that was east of Hawaii.  The moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Tropical Storm Norbert to weaken on Saturday.

The moderate vertical wind shear and drier air also caused many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Norbert to weaken.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Norbert’s circulation.  Bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Norbert consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Since there were fewer thunderstorms near the center of Norbert’s circulation, those storms generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase on Saturday.

The asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Norbert also affected the distribution of wind speeds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern half of Norbert’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Norbert.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The upper level low that is northeast of Hawaii will continue to produce moderate vertical wind shear.  Norbert will also continue to move through the mass of drier air that is east of Hawaii.  Tropical Storm Norbert is unlikely to intensify on Sunday because of the moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Norbert toward the west during the next 24 hours,  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Norbert will move toward Hawaii on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Norbert Strengthens

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Tropical Storm Norbert strengthened as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 124.7°W which put the center about 2005 miles (3225 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Norbert was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Norbert as it strengthened.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern side of Norbert’s circulation.  Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Norbert still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Norbert generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Norbert increased on Friday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Norbert’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, an upper level low that is west of Baja California will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Norbert’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Norbert is will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Norbert is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Norbert toward the west during the next 24 hours,  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Norbert will move toward Hawaii during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Norbert Develops Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Norbert developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 117.9°W which put the center about 685 miles (1105 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norbert was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California strengthened on Wednesday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Norbert.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Norbert was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Norbert’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Norbert consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level low that was west of Baja California was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The strongest winds were blowing in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Norbert’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Norbert were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level low west of Baja California will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Norbert is likely to intensify slowly because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Norbert toward the west during the next 24 hours,  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Norbert will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lowell continued to spin far to the northwest of Hawaii.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 166.2°W which put the center about 655 miles (1050 km) northwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Lowell Weakens to a Tropical Storm

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Former Hurricane Lowell weakened to a tropical storm as it moved away from Kauai on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 161.1°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) north-northwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the north at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Former Hurricane Lowell weakened to a tropical storm on Tuesday evening.  A large upper level trough that was south of the Aleutian Islands was producing strong southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Lowell’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.

The strong vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Lowell.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern half of Lowell’s circulation.  Bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Lowell consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Lowell generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Lowell to become more asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the northern side of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Lowell.

Tropical Storm Lowell will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  However, the upper level trough that is south of the Aleutian Islands will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lowell will continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Lowell will move south the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lowell toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lowell will move farther away from Hawaii.

Hurricane Lowell Brings Wind and Rain to Kauai

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Hurricane Lowell brought wind and rain to Kauai on Monday night.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 160.8°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the north at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai County including Kauai and Niihau.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Oahu.

A weather station at the Lihue Airport was reporting a sustained wind speed of 53 m.p.h (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 m.p.h (127 km/h).

A weather station at the Honolulu Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (73 km/h).

Hurricane Lowell was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it passed over Kauai on Monday night.  The center of Lowell’s circulation passed west of Kauai and Niihau.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than to the convergence of mass in the lowers levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Lowell was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 23.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.7.  Hurricane Lowell is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is northwest of Hawaii.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lowell’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lowell will continue to weaken on Tuesday because of the strong vertical wind shear.

The upper level low that is northwest of Hawaii will pull Hurricane Lowell toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lowell will move away from  Kauai and Niihau on Tuesday.

Bands in the eastern side of Lowell will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Kauai and Niihau during the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Kauai and Niihau.

Bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Lowell could also drop heavy rain on Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island of Hawaii, and Kahoolawe.

Flood Watches are in effect for Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island of Hawaii, and Kahoolawe.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Marie continued to weaken gradually southwest of San Diego.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 126.6°W which put the center about 760 miles (1220 km) southwest San Diego, California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Hurricane Lowell Moves Closer to Kauai

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Hurricane Lowell was moving closer to Kauai on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 161.3°W which put the center about 170 miles (275 km) southwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai County including Kauai and Niihau.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Oahu.

A weather station at the Lihue Airport was reporting a sustained wind speed of 32 m.p.h (52 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 m.p.h (82 km/h).

Hurricane Lowell was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved closer to Kauai on Monday evening.  A small circular eye was at the center of Lowell’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than to the convergence of mass in the lowers levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Lowell was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 22.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.5.  Hurricane Lowell is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.   It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level low that is north of Hawaii. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lowell’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Lowell will continue to weaken on Tuesday because of the increase in vertical wind shear.

The upper level low that is north of Hawaii will pull Hurricane Lowell toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Lowell will pass just to the west of Kauai in a few hours.

Bands in the eastern side of Lowell will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Kauai and Niihau on Monday night.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Kauai and Niihau.

Bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Lowell could also drop heavy rain on Maui, Lanai, , Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island of Hawaii, and Kahoolawe.

Flood Watches are in effect for Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island of Hawaii, and Kahoolawe.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Marie continued to weaken gradually southwest of San Diego.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 125.9°W which put the center about 745 miles (1200 km) southwest San Diego, California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Hurricane Warning Issued for Kauai

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A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Kauai County.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 163.0°W which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) southwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai County including Kauai and Niihau.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

Hurricane Lowell was weakening slowly as it moved toward Kauai on Monday morning.  Lowell was still a major hurricane.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was still at the center of Lowell’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than to the convergence of mass in the lowers levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Lowell was fairly symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.1.  Hurricane Lowell is similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita was when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Lowell is not as big as Rita was.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level low that is north of Hawaii.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lowell’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Lowell will continue to weaken on Monday because of the increase in vertical wind shear.

The upper level low that is north of Hawaii will steer Hurricane Lowell toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Lowell will be just southwest of Kauai on Monday night.

Bands in the eastern side of Lowell could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Kauai and Niihau on Monday night.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Kauai and Niihau.

Bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Lowell could also drop heavy rain on Maui, Lanai, , Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island of Hawaii, and Kahoolawe.

Flood Watches are in effect for Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island of Hawaii, and Kahoolawe.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Marie was weakening gradually southwest of San Diego.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 123.7°W which put the center about 700 miles (1125 km) southwest San Diego, California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Kauai

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A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Kauai County because of the potential effects of Hurricane Lowell.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 163.8°W which put the center about 580 miles (935 km) south-southwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Kauai County including Kauai and Niihau.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

Hurricane Lowell weakened to Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday morning.  Lowell was still a major hurricane.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was still at the center of Lowell’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lowers levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Sunday morning.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Lowell was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 43.9.  Hurricane Lowell is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Milton was when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment that will be less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind wind shear.  However, Lowell will  move into a mass of drier air that is southwest of Hawii.  Hurricane Lowell is likely to continue to weaken slowly because of the effects of the drier air.  Lowell will move southwest of an upper level low that is north of Hawaii on Monday.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Lowell to weaken faster on Monday.

Hurricane Lowell will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lowell toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Lowell will pass west of Kauai and Niihau on Monday night.

Bands in the eastern side of Lowell could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Kauai and Niihau on Monday night.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Kauai and Niihau.

Bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Lowell could also drop heavy rain on Maui, Lanai, , Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island of Hawaii, and Kahoolawe.

Flood Watches are in effect for Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island of Hawaii, and Kahoolawe.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms were decreasing Tropical Storm Karina and Hurricane Marie was weakening west of Baja California.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 145.0°W which put the center about 680 miles (1100 km) east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Karina was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 122.5°W which put the center about 800 miles (1290 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

 

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Kauai

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A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Kauai County because of the potential effects of Hurricane Lowell.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Lowell was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 163.4°W which put the center about 630 miles (1015 km) south-southwest of Lihue, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Kauai County including Kauai and Niihau.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

Hurricane Lowell weakened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was still at the center of Lowell’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lowell.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lowers levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Lowell was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Lowell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lowell is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 43.9. Hurricane Lowell is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Hurricane Lowell is larger than Harvey was.

Hurricane Lowell will move through an environment that will be a little less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind wind shear.  However, Lowell will start to move into a mass of drier air on Sunday.  Hurricane Lowell is likely to continue to weaken slowly on Sunday because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Lowell will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lowell toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lowell will start to move closer to Kauai and Niihau on Sunday.

Elsewhere, former Hurricane Karina weakened to a tropical storm east of Hawaii and Hurricane Marie started to weaken west of Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 143.9°W which put the center about 740 miles (1190 km) east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 121.3°W which put the center about 725 miles (1170 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.