Karina Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Karina strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 121.1°W which put the center about 820 miles (1325 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Karina strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Karina’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Karina.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Hurricane Karina was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Karina’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Hurricane Karina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Karina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Karina.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Karina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hurricane Karina.

Hurricane Karina will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Karina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, there is a mass of drier air just to the west and north of Hurricane Karina.  The drier air will inhibit intensification of Karina, but the drier air probably will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Karina is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Karina could intensify rapidly at times, if the drier air does not get pulled into its circulation.  Karina strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday morning.

Hurricane Karina will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Karina toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Karina will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lowell was moving west toward the Central Pacific.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 139.1°W which put the center about 1150 miles (1850 km) east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Bang-lang Spins North of Wake Island

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Typhoon Bang-lang was spinning over the Western North Pacific Ocean north of Wake Island on Saturday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Bang-lang was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 168.4°E which put the center about 335 miles (535 km) north-northeast of Wake Island.  Bang-lang was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Typhoon Bang-lang intensified during Friday night.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Bang-lang’s circulation.  Bands in the southwestern part of Typhoon Bang-lang consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bang-land generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern part of Typhoon Bang-lang.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the eastern half of Bang-lang’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Typhoon Bang-lang.

Typhoon Bang-lang will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bang-lang will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is east of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bang-lang’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon Bang-lang will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  Bang-lang will move over colder water on Sunday.  It will start to weaken more quickly when it moves over the colder water.  Typhoon Bang-lang will also start to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend because of the effects of the vertical wind shear and the colder water.

The upper level trough east of Japan will steer Typhoon Bang-lang toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bang-lang will move farther away from Wake Island.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Etau was north of Typhoon Bang-lang.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Ttopical Storm Etau was located at latitude 28.7°N and longitude 165.6°E which put the center about 615 miles (995 km) north of Wake Island.  Etau was moving toward the north at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Storm Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern China

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Tropical Storm Saudel brought wind and rain to eastern China on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 120.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west of Wenzhou, China.  Saudel was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The center of Typhoon Saudel made landfall on the east coast of China east of Wenzhou on Thursday evening.  Saudel weakened to a tropical storm after it made landfall on the coast.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Saudel was still well organized.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Saudel’s circulation.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Saudel.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean and eastern China.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Saudel will move inland over Zhejiang.

Tropical Storm Saudel will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejang while it moves farther inland.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Saudel will also bring gusty winds locally heavy rain to southern parts of Anhui and northern sections of Jiangxi.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Etau formed north of Wake Island.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Etau was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 167.3°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) north of Wake Island.   Etau was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

 

Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell Form over Eastern North Pacific

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Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 111.9°W which put the center about 825 miles (1330 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Two low pressure systems over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the systems as Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.

Thunderstorms were developing in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Karina.  Bands in the northwestern part of Karina’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Karina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of Tropical Storm Karina.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) in the northern side of Karina’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Karina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Karina will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Karina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Karina will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Karina could strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday morning.

Tropical Storm Karina will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is centered over the Southwest U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Karina toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Karina will move far to the southwest of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 133.8°W which put the center about 1765 miles (2840 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lowell was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Lowell is forecast to move west toward the Central North Pacific Ocean and to strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Dolly Forms over Atlantic

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Tropical Storm Dolly formed over the Atlantic Ocean midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 38.7°W which put the center about 1555 miles (2505 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Dolly was moving toward the west at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles strengthened on Thursday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dolly.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Dolly was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Dolly’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Dolly consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dolly generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Dolly.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Dolly’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Dolly were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Dolly will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dolly will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of a small upper level ridge.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dolly’s circulation.  Since the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are blowing from the east, there will moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Dolly could intensify a little during the next 24 hours in spite of the moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear is expected to increase during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Dolly will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolly quickly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dolly will move toward the Leeward Islands.  Dolly could approach the Northern Leeward Islands by Saturday night.

 

Typhoon Saudel Moves Toward China

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Typhoon Saudel moved toward the east coast of China on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 125.0°E which put the center about 230 miles (370 km) east of Taizhou, China.  Saudel was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Saudel weakened gradually on Wednesday as it moved toward the east coast of China.  Even though Saudel weakened, a circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of the typhoon.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was slightly less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased a little on Wednesday.

Although Typhoon Saudel weakened on Wednesday, the circulation around Typhoon Saudel was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 30.6. Typhoon Saudel is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit South Texas in 2008.  Typhoon Saudel is much larger than Dolly was.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Saudel will move through a mass of drier air that is east of China.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to continue to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saudel will approach the east coast of China in 24 hours.

Typhoon Saudel will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Saudel could also cause a storm surge of up 8 feet (2.5 meters) along the coast of Zhejiang.

Tropical Storm Iselle Weakens

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Tropical Storm Iselle weakened on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 122.5°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level trough west of the West Coast of the U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing Tropical Storm Iselle to weaken.

The vertical wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Iselle to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Iselle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

The effects of the vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Iselle to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the eastern side of Iselle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will continue to move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is west of the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Iselle will move into a mass of drier air that is west of Baja California.  Tropical Storm Iselle will  continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the effects of the vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lala continued to weaken slowly far to the northwest of Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 35.2°N and longitude 177.6°W which put the center about 470 miles (760 km) north of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Typhoon Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Saudel brought wind and rain to the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 128.5°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east-northeast of Okinawa.  Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A weather station in Okinoerabu, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h).

A weather station in Imagi, Japan reported 7.75 inches (197 mm) of rain.

Typhoon Saudel was maintaining its intensity on Tuesday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Tuesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Saudel was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.7.  Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Saudel will move into a mass of drier air that is east of China.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saudel will move slowly away from the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Saudel will pass north of Taiwan in a couple of days.  Typhoon Saudel could make landfall on the east coast of China in three days.

Typhoon Saudel will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain over the Ryukyu Islands as it moves slowly away from those islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Iselle Spins Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Iselle was spinning southwest of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 118.6°W which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle strengthened on Monday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Wind to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is west of the West Coast of the U.S  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday.  In addition, Iselle will move into a mass of drier air that is west of Baja California.  Tropical Storm Iselle is likely to start to weaken on Tuesday because of the effects of the increased vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Moke weakened to a tropical depression south of Hawaii and Tropical Storm Lala weakened gradually far to the northwest of Hawaii.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Moke was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 163.0°W which put the center about 435 miles (695 km) east of Johnston Island.  Moke was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 175.6°W which put the center about 435 miles (705 km) north-northeast of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Typhoon Saudel Approaches Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Saudel was approaching the Ryukyu Islands on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 130.6°E which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) east of Okinawa.  Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Typhoon Saudel was weakening slowly as it approached the Ryukyu Islands on Monday night.  The eye was no longer visible at the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Typhoon Saudel appeared to be pulling some drier air into the western side of its circulation.  Some of the thunderstorms in the bands in the western half of Typhoon Saudel were weaker because of the drier.  Storms near the center of Saudel still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Typhoon Saudel was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 26.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.2. Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Saudel will continue to move into a mass of drier air that is east of China.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to continue to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Saudel will pass between Okinawa and Amami in 12 hours.

Typhoon Saudel is already producing strong winds and heavy rain in Minami Daito Jima.

Typhoon Saudel will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa and Amami.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.