Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled again over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 93.1°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung maintained its intensity as it stalled again on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms formed in the circulation around Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Tuesday.

The distribution of wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Bakung became asymmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will  cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Bakung. However, Tropical Cyclone Bakung could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung is anticipated to meander west of the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 92.9°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Stronger vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken on Monday.  There were still thunderstorms around the center of Bakung’s circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence.  Storms near the center of Bakung pumped less mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will continue to steer Bakung toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 91.0°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened a little after it stalled over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung continued to be very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken during the next 24 hours.  Because the circulation around Bakung is so small, it could weaken rapidly at times.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to steer Bakung back toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.2°S and longitude 91.4°E which put the center about 390 miles (630 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Saturday.  A very small circular eye developed at the center of Bakung’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.  Storms near the center of Bakung generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 10 miles (15 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  Because the circulation around Bakung is so small, it could weaken rapidly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to steer Bakung back toward the east on Sunday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move back closer to the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung formed over the South Indian Ocean north of the Cocos Islands on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 94.9°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) north-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Friday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Bakung.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung on Friday.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Bakung’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bakung started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Bakung will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system tat is over Australia.  The high pressure will steer Bakung toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move farther away from the Cocos Islands during the weekend.