Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to

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Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5  hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Rodrigues on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 65.0°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (3150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio increased as Horacio rapidly intensified.   Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.7. Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will become less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the will  vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Sunday night.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 65.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Moves Toward Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Horacio moved over the South Indian Ocean toward Rodrigues on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 67.8°E which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Horatio’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horacio became more symmetrical when Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will pass east of Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Passes South of Diego Garcia

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Tropical Cyclone Horacio passed south of Diego Garcia as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 71.3°E which put the center about 675 miles (1095 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Horacio was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio struggled to intensify on Saturday.  Horatio was under the northern side of an upper level ridge that was over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge produced easterly winds that blew toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear inhibited intensification.

The easterly winds in the upper levels and the vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Horacio’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern sides of Tropical Cyclone Horacio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the northern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horatio toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move closer to Rodrigues.  Horacio could approach Rodrigues in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Develops South of Diego Garcia

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Tropical Cyclone Horacio developed over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia on Thursday night.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 75.3°E which put the center about 610 miles (985 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia strengthened on Thursday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was organizing quickly on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Horatio’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move toward the northern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move toward Rodrigues.  Horacio could approach Rodrigues in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Weakens

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Tropical Cyclone Gezani weakened on Monday as it started to move away from southern Madagascar.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 26.0°S and longitude 43.6°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) south of Toliara, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani started to weaken on Monday.  An upper level trough east of South Africa was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Gezani’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds were also blowing the tops off of thunderstorms in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Gezani’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The strong vertical wind shear was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Gezani,  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern half of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough that is east of South Africa will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will also cause Gezani to continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the western end of high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move farther away from southern Madagascar on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Moves Toward Southern Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Gezani moved toward southern Madagascar on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 25.8°S and longitude 41.3°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the east-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Storm Gezani did not change much on Sunday.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels almost exactly the same as the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was relatively constant on Sunday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani expanded a little on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the other quadrants of Gezani.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is east of South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gezani’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will cause Gezani to continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move closer to southern Madagascar during the next 12 hours.  A high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean is forecast to start to steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the south on Monday before Gezani reaches southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Moves Away From Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Gezani moved away from Mozambique on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 26.7°S and longitude 39.0°E which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) east of Maputo, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani started to weaken on Saturday as it moved away from Mozambique.  An eye was no longer visible in satellite images of the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani increased a little on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gezani’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gezani will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will cause Gezani to start to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Sunday.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will continue to move away from the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Clips Mozambique

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The western side of Tropical Cyclone Gezani clipped the coast of Mozambique near Inhambane on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 24.4°S and longitude 35.8°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it clipped the coast of Mozambique on Friday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was present at the center of Gezani’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.1.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gezani’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will start to move away from the coast of central Mozambique on Saturday.

Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Gezani circulation will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region near Inhambane during the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani Nears Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Gezani was nearing the coast of Mozambique on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 36.3°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) north-northeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Gezani was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani was strengthening on Friday morning as it neared the coast of Mozambique.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Gezani’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani increased a little when Gezani strengthened.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.9.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Gezani could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani will pass very close to the coast of central Mozambique during the next 24 hours.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani is currently forecast to pass just to the east of the coast of central Mozambique.  Bands in the western half of Gezani’s circulation could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region near Inhambane.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  If Tropical Cyclone Gezani moves a little to the west of the forecast track, then the strongest part of Gezani’s circulation could hit the area around Inhambane.