Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts

Leave a reply

The Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1, 2026.  The hurricane season began quietly.  No tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes were present over the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico.  No tropical cyclones are expected to form over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.  Whenever a tropical storm does form over the Atlantic Ocean, the first name on the list will be Arthur.

Fewer tropical storms and hurricanes are expected to form over the Atlantic Ocean this year.  A strong El Niño pattern is expected to develop over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the next few months.  Much warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are expected to be present over the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the hurricane season.

The warmer Sea Surface Temperatures associated with an El Niño produce more rising motion and convection.  The stronger rising motion begins to move toward the east when it reaches the upper troposphere where it produces stronger westerly winds.  The stronger westerly winds blow over the Caribbean Sea and the western Atlantic Ocean.  Those stronger westerly winds cause more vertical wind shear.  More vertical wind shear makes it more difficult for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop.

Jangmi Brings Wind and Rain to Okinawa

Leave a reply

Tropical Storm Jangmi brought wind and rain to Okinawa on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 128.0°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Okinawa.  Jangmi was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Storm Jangmi brought wind and rain to Okinawa on Monday.  A weather station at Kadena Air Force Base in Okinawa (RODN) reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h).

Former Typhoon Jangmi weakened back to a tropical storm Monday.  A large eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) was still present at the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jangmi was pulling drier air around the western and southern parts of Jangmi’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Jangmi.  Bands in the western and southern sides of Jangmi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Storms near the center of Jangmi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure increased gradually.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jangmi was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (330 km) from the center of Jangmi’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is over the east coast of China.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jangmi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Jangmi will continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the east coast of China will steer Tropical Storm Jangmi toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Jangmi will move over the northern Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Tropical Storm Jangmi will be southeast of Kyushu in 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Ryukyu Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Jangmi will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu.

Typhoon Jangmi Approaches Okinawa

Leave a reply

Typhoon Jangmi was approaching Okinawa on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Jangmi was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 127.7°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) south of Okinawa.  Jangmi was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

The northern part of Typhoon Jangmi was already affecting Okinawa on Sunday morning.  A weather station at Kadena Air Force Base (RODN) was reporting a sustained wind speed of 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and a wind gusts of 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) even though the center of Jangmi was 255 miles (410 km) south of the station.

Typhoon Jangmi continued to intensify slowly during Saturday night.   A very large circular eye was at the center of Typhoon Jangmi.  The eye had a diameter of 80 miles (130 km).  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center Jangmi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Jangmi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Jangmi was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Jangmi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Typhoon Jangmi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Jangmi was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 29.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.4.

Typhoon Jangmi will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is over the east coast of China.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jangmi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon Jangmi will start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

Typhoon Jangmi will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jangmi toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Jangmi will reach Okinawa in 18 hours.

Typhoon Jangmi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.  Heavy rain is could cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Jangmi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coasts of the Ryukyu Islands.

 

Jangmi Strengthens to a Typhoon

Leave a reply

Former Tropical Storm Jangmi strengthened to a typhoon on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Jangmi was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) south of Okinawa.  Jangmi was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Jangmi strengthened to a typhoon south of Okinawa on Saturday.  A very large circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Jangmi.  The eye had a diameter of 70 miles (110 km).  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center Jangmi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Jangmi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Jangmi was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Jangmi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Typhoon Jangmi.

Typhoon Jangmi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Jangmi will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Jangmi will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jangmi toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Jangmi will approach Okinawa in 36 hours.

Typhoon Jangmi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.  Heavy rain is could cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Jangmi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coasts of the Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Jangmi Continues to Intensify

Leave a reply

Tropical Storm Jangmi continued to intensify over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 130.4°E which put the center about 705 miles (1135 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Jangmi was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Jangmi continued to intensify as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of the Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jangmi’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi.  Storms near the center of Jangmi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jangmi was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Jangmi’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Japan. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi is likely strengthen to a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jangmi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jangmi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Jangmi is likely to be a typhoon when it approaches the southern Ryukyu Islands.  Jangmi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands.  Heavy rain is could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Jangmi Gradually Strengthening

Leave a reply

Tropical Storm Jangmi gradually strengthened on Thursday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of the Ryukyu Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 133.3°E which put the center about 855 miles (1380 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Jangmi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Jangmi strengthened gradually on Thursday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Jangmi’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Jangmi.  Bands in the eastern and northern parts of Jangmi’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Jangmi generated a little more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of a little more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jangmi was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Jangmi’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Japan.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  The large circulation around Jangmi could cause it to intensify slowly at times.  Jangmi could strengthen to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jangmi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jangmi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in three days.

Tropical Storm Jangmi Forms West of Yap

Leave a reply

Tropical Storm Jangmi formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of Yap on Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 137.3°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) west of Yap.  Jangmi was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of Yap strengthened on Tuesday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Jangmi.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jangmi was large.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Jangmi’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Jangmi.  Other bands in the eastern side of Jangmi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Jangmi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jangmi was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Jangmi’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is east of the Philippines.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  The large circulation around Jangmi could cause it to intensify slowly at first.  Jangmi could strengthen to a typhoon by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jangmi toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jangmi will move slowly away from Yap.  Jangmi could approach the Ryukyu Islands in a few days.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will continue to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Yap until it moves farther away later this week.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Begins

The Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season officially began on Friday May 15, 2026.  The season began quietly.  No tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes were present over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  No tropical cyclones are expected to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next few days.   Whenever a tropical storm does form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the first name on the list will be Amanda.

A strong El Niño pattern is expected to develop over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the next few months.  Much warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are expected to be present over the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the hurricane season.   During a strong El Niño the Sea Surface Temperatures over much of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean are also usually warmer than normal.

While the effect of an El Niño on the Atlantic hurricane season is typically to reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes because of more vertical wind shear, the effect of an El Niño on the activity over the Eastern North Pacific can be more complicated.  The effect of an El Niño on the Eastern North Pacific hurricane activity depends partly on where the warmest Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures are located.

The warmer Sea Surface Temperatures associated with an El Niño produce more rising motion and convection.  The stronger rising motion begins to move toward the east when it reaches the upper troposphere where it produces stronger westerly winds which in turn cause more vertical wind shear.

Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures are favorable for more and stronger hurricanes.  If the stronger rising motion occurs over the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, then the increased vertical wind shear will occur over the Caribbean Sea.  In that case the El Niño contributes to a more active Eastern North Pacific hurricane season, because the stronger wind shear is not over the Eastern North Pacific.

However, if the stronger rising motion occurs a little farther to the west in the Equatorial Pacific southeast of Hawaii, then there will be more vertical wind shear over parts of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The stronger vertical wind shear will partially offset the effect of the Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures.  The warmer SSTs may result in more tropical storms, but more vertical wind shear may somewhat limit the number and strength of hurricanes that form over the Eastern North Pacific.

So, the effect of a strong El Niño on the Eastern North Pacific hurricane season in 2026 will depend on where the strongest convection occurs during the next few months.

 

Hagupit Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Hagupit weakened to a tropical depression on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Hagupit was located at latitude 10.4°N and longitude 130.7°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) northwest of Koror, Palau. Hagupit was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Hagupit weakened to a tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of Palau on Sunday.  More of the thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Hagupit dissipated.  Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern half of Hagupit’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Hagupit’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The few thunderstorms near the center of Hagupit generated little upper level divergence to pump mass away from the tropical depression.  Mass was still converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase slowly.

Tropical Depression Hagupit will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, it will move under the southern end of an upper level trough that is south of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hagupit’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Hagupit will  continue to weaken because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Depression Hagupit will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Hagupit toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Hagupit will continue to move farther away from Palau.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Passes North of Palau

Tropical Storm Hagupit passed north of Palau on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 10.4°N and longitude 132.9°E which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of Koror, Palau.  Hagupit was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Hagupit maintained its intensity while it passed north of Palau on Saturday.  Even though Tropical Storm Hagupit maintained its maximum wind speed, some of the thunderstorms in Hagupit’s circulation dissipated.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Hagupit.  Bands in the western side of Hagupit’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center of Hagupit generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern end of an upper level trough that is south of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hagupit’s circulation.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hagupit is likely to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.   The high pressure system will steer Hagupit toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Hagupit will move farther away from Palau.