Hurricane Fausto Strengthens a Little More

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Hurricane Fausto strengthened a little more on Friday morning as it moved toward the Central Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 131.2°W which put the center about 1560 miles (2510 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Fausto continued to strengthen early on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Fausto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Fausto’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Fausto generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Hurricane Fausto became more symmetrical on Friday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Fausto.

Hurricane Fausto will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air just to the north and west of Hurricane Fausto.  The drier air is likely to inhibit the development of new thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Fausto’s circulation.  Hurricane Fausto is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Fausto will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.  Fausto could be near the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E formed south of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 9.0°N and longitude 100.5°W which put the center about 605 miles (975 km) south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hurricane Fausto Strengthens

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Hurricane Fausto strengthened on Thursday as it moved toward the Central Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 128.4°W which put the center about 1745 miles (2805 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Hurricane Fausto strengthened on Thursday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Fausto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Fausto.  Storms near the center of Fausto generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Thursday.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Fausto increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) in the northern half of Hurricane Fausto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the southern half of Fausto’s circulation.

Hurricane Fausto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air just to the north and west of Hurricane Fausto.  The drier air could inhibit the development of thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Fausto’s circulation.  Hurricane Fausto could intensify a little more on Friday if the drier air does not prevent the formation of new thunderstorms.

Hurricane Fausto will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Noul Forms East of Northern Luzon

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Tropical Storm Noul formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 124.4°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Noul.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Noul.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western half of Noul’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Noul consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storm near the center of Noul began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Noul was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southern side of Noul’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Noul.

Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of China.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Noul’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Noul will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Noul is likely to strengthen to a typhoon by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Noul will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Noul toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Noul will pass south of Taiwan on Friday.  Noul is likely to hit southeastern China during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Noul will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Noul will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Storm Noul is likely to be a typhoon when it hits southeastern China.

Tropical Storm Bertha Near Texas/Louisiana Border

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The center of Tropical Storm Bertha moved back inland near the border between Texas and Louisiana on Thursday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 93.8°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) east of Port Arthur, Texas.  Bertha was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to Sargent, Texas.

Tropical Storm Bertha was bringing gusty winds to southern Louisiana and eastern Texas on Thursday afternoon.  However, the strongest winds were in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation.  Those winds were occurring over the Gulf of Mexico.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Bertha was very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

The heaviest rain was falling in thunderstorms located in bands in the southwestern periphery of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Those thunderstorms were over the Gulf of Mexico east of Texas.  Light to moderate rain was falling over southern Louisiana and eastern Texas from showers and a few thunderstorms in bands closer to the low level center of Bertha’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Southern Plains.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha will move inland over eastern and south central Texas.

Tropical Storm Bertha will produce gusty winds over eastern and south central Texas as it moves inland.  Thunderstorms, primarily south of the center of Bertha’s circulation, could produce heavy rain in some locations.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Storm Bertha Moves Across Southeast Louisiana

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Tropical Storm Bertha moved across southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha’ was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 91.1°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Bertha was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Sargent, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain.

Strong northeasterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere appeared to be blowing the middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Bertha to the southwest of the surface circulation.  The center of the surface circulation was south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southwestern part of the surface circulation around Tropical Storm Bertha.  Bands in the other parts of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  It is possible that a new center of circulation could develop closer to the area of showers and thunderstorms.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Those winds were occurring over the Gulf of Mexico.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern side of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce strong northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Bertha is likely to continue to weaken during the next 18 hours unless a new center of circulation forms near the thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha will move over eastern Texas south of Galveston on Thursday evening.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the northwestern Gulf Coast.  Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Louisiana and eastern Texas.

Hurricane Fausto Moves Toward Central Pacific

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Hurricane Fausto was moving toward the Central Pacific Ocean on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 123.0°W which put the center about 2155 miles (3475 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Hurricane Fausto did not change much on Wednesday.  A small circular eye was visible intermittently on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Fausto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fausto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Fausto.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Fausto.

Hurricane Fausto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air just to the north of Hurricane Fausto.  The drier air could inhibit the development of thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Fausto’s circulation.  Hurricane Fausto could intensify during the next 24 hours if the drier air does not prevent the formation of new thunderstorms.

Hurricane Fausto will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Bertha Weakens

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Tropical Storm Bertha weakened on Wednesday morning as it moved toward southeastern Louisiana.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 89.1°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Bertha was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Sargent, Texas.

Tropical Storm Bertha weakened on Wednesday morning because of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear, and the wind shear was causing Bertha to weaken.  The vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the far southwestern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  There were no thunderstorms near the center of Bertha to generate upper level divergence.  Convergence of mass in the lower atmosphere was causing the surface pressure to increase.

Tropical Storm Berta was still producing sustained winds to tropical storm force.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce strong northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation. Those upper level winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Bertha will continue to weaken during he next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha will move over southeastern Louisiana in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha Moves West

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Tropical Storm Bertha was moving toward the west over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 87.7°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama.   Bertha was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha was maintaining its intensity on Tuesday evening in spite of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear was not strong enough to cause Bertha to weaken.  The vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Bands in the northern half of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was remaining constant on Tuesday evening.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those upper level winds are forecast to get stronger on Wednesday.  Those stronger winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Bertha could maintain its intensity during the next few hours.  Bertha is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha will reach southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

Hurricane Fausto Spins Southwest of Baja California

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Hurricane Fausto continued to spin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 120.3°W which put the center about 805 miles (1295 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fausto was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Hurricane Fausto was showing signs of strengthening on Tuesday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fausto’s circulation.  A small eye was appearing in microwave satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Fausto.  Storms near the center of Fausto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Fausto increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Fausto.

Hurricane Fausto will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Fausto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Fausto will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move farther away from Mexico.  Fausto is likely to move over the Central Pacific Ocean during the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Storm Bertha Intensifies

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Tropical Storm Bertha intensified over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 86.3°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Pensacola, Florida.  Bertha was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebone Parish/Lafourche Parish Line in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for New Orleans.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Terrebonne Parish/Lafourche Parish Line to the Vermilion Parish/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha intensified on Tuesday morning in spite of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear was not strong enough to prevent intensification  The vertical wind shear did affect the structure of Bertha’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Bands in the northern half of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bertha could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  However,if the northeasterly winds in the upper levels get any stronger, then Bertha will start to weaken.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly toward southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.