Tropical Storm Jangmi Forms West of Yap

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Tropical Storm Jangmi formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of Yap on Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Jangmi was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 137.3°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) west of Yap.  Jangmi was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of Yap strengthened on Tuesday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Jangmi.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jangmi was large.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Jangmi’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Jangmi.  Other bands in the eastern side of Jangmi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Jangmi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jangmi was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Jangmi’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jangmi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is east of the Philippines.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  The large circulation around Jangmi could cause it to intensify slowly at first.  Jangmi could strengthen to a typhoon by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jangmi toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jangmi will move slowly away from Yap.  Jangmi could approach the Ryukyu Islands in a few days.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will continue to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Yap until it moves farther away later this week.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Begins

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The Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season officially began on Friday May 15, 2026.  The season began quietly.  No tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes were present over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  No tropical cyclones are expected to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next few days.   Whenever a tropical storm does form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the first name on the list will be Amanda.

A strong El Niño pattern is expected to develop over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the next few months.  Much warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are expected to be present over the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the hurricane season.   During a strong El Niño the Sea Surface Temperatures over much of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean are also usually warmer than normal.

While the effect of an El Niño on the Atlantic hurricane season is typically to reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes because of more vertical wind shear, the effect of an El Niño on the activity over the Eastern North Pacific can be more complicated.  The effect of an El Niño on the Eastern North Pacific hurricane activity depends partly on where the warmest Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures are located.

The warmer Sea Surface Temperatures associated with an El Niño produce more rising motion and convection.  The stronger rising motion begins to move toward the east when it reaches the upper troposphere where it produces stronger westerly winds which in turn cause more vertical wind shear.

Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures are favorable for more and stronger hurricanes.  If the stronger rising motion occurs over the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, then the increased vertical wind shear will occur over the Caribbean Sea.  In that case the El Niño contributes to a more active Eastern North Pacific hurricane season, because the stronger wind shear is not over the Eastern North Pacific.

However, if the stronger rising motion occurs a little farther to the west in the Equatorial Pacific southeast of Hawaii, then there will be more vertical wind shear over parts of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The stronger vertical wind shear will partially offset the effect of the Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures.  The warmer SSTs may result in more tropical storms, but more vertical wind shear may somewhat limit the number and strength of hurricanes that form over the Eastern North Pacific.

So, the effect of a strong El Niño on the Eastern North Pacific hurricane season in 2026 will depend on where the strongest convection occurs during the next few months.

 

Hagupit Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Hagupit weakened to a tropical depression on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Hagupit was located at latitude 10.4°N and longitude 130.7°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) northwest of Koror, Palau. Hagupit was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Hagupit weakened to a tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of Palau on Sunday.  More of the thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Hagupit dissipated.  Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern half of Hagupit’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Hagupit’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The few thunderstorms near the center of Hagupit generated little upper level divergence to pump mass away from the tropical depression.  Mass was still converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase slowly.

Tropical Depression Hagupit will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, it will move under the southern end of an upper level trough that is south of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hagupit’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Hagupit will  continue to weaken because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Depression Hagupit will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Hagupit toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Hagupit will continue to move farther away from Palau.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Passes North of Palau

Tropical Storm Hagupit passed north of Palau on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 10.4°N and longitude 132.9°E which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of Koror, Palau.  Hagupit was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Hagupit maintained its intensity while it passed north of Palau on Saturday.  Even though Tropical Storm Hagupit maintained its maximum wind speed, some of the thunderstorms in Hagupit’s circulation dissipated.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Hagupit.  Bands in the western side of Hagupit’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center of Hagupit generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern end of an upper level trough that is south of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hagupit’s circulation.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hagupit is likely to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.   The high pressure system will steer Hagupit toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Hagupit will move farther away from Palau.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Produces Gusty Winds on Yap

Tropical Storm Hagupit produced gusty winds on Yap on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 8.8°N and longitude 136.6°E which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Yap.  Hagupit was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Even though the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit passed south of Yap on Friday, Hagupit still produced gusty winds on Yap.  A weather station at the Yap International Airport (PTYA) reported a wind gust of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) on Friday.

Tropical Storm Hagupit weakened a little on Friday.  Some of the thunderstorms in bands in the western half of Hagupit’s circulation dissipated.  Numerous thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Hagupit.  Thunderstorms near the center of Hagupit generated a little less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Hagupit.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hagupit’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Hagupit were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move into an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern end of an upper level trough that is south of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hagupit’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Hagupit will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Hagupit toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Hagupit will move away from Yap.  Hagupit will pass north of Palau during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will continue to produce gusty winds on Yap during the next few hours until Hagupit moves farther away,  Hagupit will also bring passing showers and thunderstorms to Yap.  Locally heavy rainfall could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Approaches Yap

Tropical Storm Hagupit was approaching Yap on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 139.5°E which put the center about 145 miles (230 km) east-southeast of Yap.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Hagupit was intensifying as it approached Yap on Thursday night.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Hagupit’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit.  Storms near the center of Hagupit generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Hagupit was intensifying, the distribution of wind speeds continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the northern side of Hagupit’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Hagupit were blowing at less that tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hagupit’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Hagupit will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Hagupit toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Hagupit will reach Yap within 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Yap.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Hagupit could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) along the coast of Yap.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Passes South of Guam

Tropical Storm Hagupit passed well to the south of Guam on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 7.2°N and longitude 142.5°E which put the center about 355 miles (575 km) east-southeast of Yap.  Hagupit was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Hagupit exhibited a little more organization on Thursday morning.  Thunderstorms were once again forming in bands in all parts of Hagupit’s circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of Hagupit generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slightly.

Even though Tropical Storm Hagupit looked more organized on satellite images, the distribution of wind speeds continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Hagupit’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Hagupit were blowing at less that tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hagupit’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Hagupit will intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Hagupit toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Hagupit will approach Yap in 24 hours.

Tropical storm Hagupit will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Yap.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Hagupit

Former Tropical Depression 05W strengthened to Tropical Storm Hagupit over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of the Marianas on Tuesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 146.5°E which put the center about 435 miles (705 km) south-southeast of Guam.  Hagupit was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Former Tropical Depression 05W strengthened on Tuesday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Hagupit.

Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms around the rest of Hagupit’s circulation became a little more asymmetrical during the past 12 hours.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Hagupit.  Bands in the western side of Hagupit’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Hagupit generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly matched by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Hagupit was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hagupit’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Hagupit were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hagupit’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Hagupit will intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.  Hagupit could strengthen to a typhoon later this week.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Hagupit toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Hagupit will pass south of Guam.  Hagupit could approach Yap in 48 hours.  Hagupit will likely be a tropical storm when it approaches Yap.

Tropical Depression 05W Forms Southeast of the Marianas

Tropical Depression 05W formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of the Marianas on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression 05W was located at latitude 8.4°N and longitude 147.8°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Puluwat.  Tropical Depression 05W was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of the Marianas strengthened on Tuesday.  Both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as a tropical depression.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Depression 05W on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Depression 05W will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression 05W will intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a typhoon later this week.

Tropical Depression 05W will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression 05W will pass south of Guam.  The tropical depression could approach Yap in 36 hours.  It will likely be a tropical storm when it approaches Yap.

Sinlaku Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Typhoon Sinlaku weakened to a tropical storm on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sinlaku was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 149.2°E which put the center about 450 miles (730 km) east of Iwo To.  Sinlaku was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Former Typhoon Sinlaku weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over cooler water on Saturday.  Many of the remaining thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Sinlaku dissipated on Saturday.  There were still some thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Sinlaku’s circulation.  The bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Sinlaku consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There was very little upper level divergence from Tropical Storm Sinlaku.  The convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to continue to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Sinlaku was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Sinlaku’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours . Sinlaku will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Sinlaku’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Sinlaku will also continue to pull drier air into its circulation.  The drier air will continue to to inhibit the development of new thunderstorms in the rainbands revolving around the center of Sinlaku’s circulation.  The cooler Sea Surface Temperatures, moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Tropical Storm Sinlaku to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Sinlaku toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Sinlaku will continue to move away from Iwo To.