Cempaka Strengthens to a Typhoon

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Former Tropical Storm Cempaka strengthened to a typhoon as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean southwest of Iwo To.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Cempaka was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 136.9°E which put the center about 315 miles (505 km) southwest of Iwo To.  Cempaka was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Cempaka strengthened to a typhoon on Saturday night.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Cempaka.  Storms near the center of Cempaka generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Typhoon Cempaka.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the northern half of Cempaka’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Typhoon Cempaka.

Typhoon Cempaka will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cempaka will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is southeast of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cempaka’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear probably will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Cempaka is likely to  intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Cempaka will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Cempaka toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  Cempaka is likely to turn back toward the east-northeast on Monday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Cempaka will approach Iwo To in 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Pena Strengthens

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Tropical Storm Pena strengthened as it moved south of Hawaii on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Pena was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 154.5°W which put the center about 530 miles (855 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Pena was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Pena strengthened on Saturday.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Pena’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Pena.  Bands in the western side of Pena’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Storms near the center of Pena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Pena was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Pena’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Pena.  The winds in the southern half of Pena’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pena will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is southwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pena’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Pena could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Storm Pena will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Pena toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pena will remain far to the south of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Cempaka Develops Northwest of the Marianas

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Tropical Storm Cempaka developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of the Marianas on Friday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cempaka was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 142.1°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south-southeast of Iwo To. Cempaka was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Friday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Cempaka.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Cempaka on Friday night.  More thunderstorms also developed in the bands revolving around the center of Cempaka’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Cempaka generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Cempaka.

Tropical Storm Cempaka will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cempaka will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cempaka’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cempaka will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Cempaka is likely to strengthen to a typhoon by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Cempaka will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Cempaka toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Cempaka will move southwest of Iwo To.  Cempaka is likely to turn back toward the east-northwest early next week when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

 

Tropical Storm Pena Forms Southeast of Hawaii

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Tropical Storm Pena formed southeast of Hawaii on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Pena was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 150.1°W which put the center about 650 miles (1045 km) southeast of South Point, Hawaii.  Pena was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the Central North Pacific Ocean southeast of Hawaii strengthened on Friday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Pena.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Tropical Storm Pena.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Pena’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Pena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Pena.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Pena.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Pena were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Pena is very likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Pena could move into a region where there is more vertical wind shear on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Pena will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Pena toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pena will pass south of Hawaii.

Typhoon In-Fa Moves Northeast

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Typhoon In-Fa started to move toward the northeast on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon In-Fa was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 141.2°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) west-northwest of Chichi Jima.  In-Fa was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Typhoon In-Fa began to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone on Wednesday.  An upper level trough over Japan was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of In-Fa’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused the start of the transition of an extratropical cyclone.

The strong vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Typhoon In-Fa.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of In-Fa’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Typhoon In-Fa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of In-Fa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Wednesday.

The start of the transition to an extratropical cyclone caused Typhoon In-Fa to get a little larger on Wednesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of In-Fa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Typhoon In-Fa.

Typhoon In-Fa will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a typhoon during the next 24 hours.  In-Fa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  The upper level trough that is over Japan will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Typhoon In-Fa is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of strong vertical wind shear and cooler  Sea Surface Temperatures.  In-Fa will continue to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over Japan will steer Typhoon In-Fa quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon In-Fa will pass east of Japan on Thursday.

Typhoon In-Fa Passes West of Iwo To

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Typhoon In-Fa passed west of Iwo To on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon In-Fa was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 138.4°E which put the center about 185 miles (295 km) west of Iwo To.  In-Fa was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Typhoon In-Fa maintained its intensity on Tuesday as it passed west of Iwo To.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of In-Fa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon In-Fa.  Storms near the center of In-Fa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Tuesday.

The distribution of wind speeds around Typhoon In-Fa was still relatively symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of In-Fa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Typhoon In-Fa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon In-Fa is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.2. Typhoon In-Fa is similar in intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit Florida in 2023.  In-Fa is not as large as Iasais was.

Typhoon In-Fa will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a typhoon during the next 24 hours.  In-Fa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over Japan.  The upper level trough will produce west-southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of In-Fa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon In-Fa is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough over Japan will steer Typhoon In-Fa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon In-Fa will pass southeast of Japan.

Typhoon In-Fa will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures during the next several days.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Typhoon In-Fa to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu Brings Wind and Rain to Andhra Pradesh

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Tropical Cyclone Murasu brought wind and rain to Andhra Pradesh on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Murasu was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 80.4°E which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) southeast of Ongolu, India.  Murasu was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu became the second tropical cyclone to hit Andhra Pradesh in less than a week.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab made landfall on the coast of Andhra Pradesh last Tuesday a little to the northeast of where Murasu made landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday as it approached the coast of Andhra Pradesh.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Murasu’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Murasu.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Murasu was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Murasu’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Murasu.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Murasu is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.0.  Tropical Cyclone Murasu is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Tropical Cyclone Murasu is not as big as Idalia was.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the northern Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Murasu toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Murasu will move inland over Ongolu, India.  Murasu will move northwest of Ongolu when it moves farther inland.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Andhra Pradesh.   Murasu will be capable of causing serious damage as it moves inland.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Murasu could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu Nears Southeast India

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Tropical Cyclone Murasu was nearing the coast of southeastern India on Sunday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Murasu was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 81.5°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) east-southeast of Nellore, India.  Murasu was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu strengthened on Sunday as it moved toward the coast of Andhra Pradesh in southeastern India.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Murasu’ circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Murasu.  Storms near the center of Murasu generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Sunday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Murasu was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Murasu’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Murasu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over southern India and the western part of the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Murasu could run into a mass of drier air when it gets closer to the coast of India.  Tropical Cyclone Murasu could intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over South Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Murasu toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Murasu will move reach the coast of Andhra Pradesh north of Nellore in about 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Murasu will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Andhra Pradesh.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Murasu could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

New Tropical Cyclone Forms over Bay of Bengal

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A new tropical cyclone formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 86.0°E which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) east-southeast of Ongolu, India.  Tropical Cyclone 04B was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A new tropical cyclone formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  The India Meteorological Department was classifying the tropical cyclone as a depression.  So, it has not yet been designated with a name.

Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Cyclone 04B.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 04B were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone 04B will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over South Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer that tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 04B will move toward Andhra Pradesh.  Tropical Cyclone 04B could approach the coast of Andhra Pradesh in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Andhra Pradesh.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone 04B could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

Typhoon In-Fa Stalls Southeast of Iwo To

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Typhoon In-Fa stalled over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Iwo To on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon In-Fa was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 144.1°E which put the center about 235 miles (380 km) southeast of Iwo To.  In-Fa was moving toward the east-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon In-Fa weakened gradually on Saturday while it stalled southeast of Iwo To.  A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was still present at the center of In-Fa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon In-Fa.  Storms near the center of In-Fa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than  the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The distribution of wind speeds around Typhoon In-Fa was still relatively symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of In-Fa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon In-Fa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon In-Fa is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 23.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.8.  Typhoon In-Fa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Typhoon In-Fa will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  In-Fa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is south of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of In-Fa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon In-Fa is likely to continue to weaken gradually on Sunday because of more vertical wind shear.

A high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Japan will start to steer Typhoon In-Fa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track,  Typhoon In-Fa will move south of Iwo To on Sunday.