Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Texas and Louisiana

Leave a reply

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over South Texas prompted the U.S. National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Texas and Louisiana on Tuesday.  The National Hurricane Center also designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.19°N and longitude 97.8°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

The National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system over South Texas as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Tuesday.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone One was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands that were over the Gulf of Mexico.  Bands in the western half of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to slowly decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the low pressure system could move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

If Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, it will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical storm.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 70% that a tropical depression or a tropical storm forms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Reconnaissance planes have been tentatively tasked to fly into the the low pressure system on Tuesday night and Wednesday, if necessary.

The low pressure system has already dropped heavy rain over parts of South Texas and northern Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for South Texas, southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, and the southern half of Mississippi.

Low Pressure over South Texas

Leave a reply

A low pressure system formed over South Texas on Monday evening.  The low pressure system was designated as Invest 90L by the U.S. National Weather Service.  At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of a low pressure system was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 99.3°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of Laredo, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (35 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

An upper level low interacting with the northern end of a tropical wave caused a surface low pressure system to form over South Texas on Monday evening.  The low pressure system was evident on surface weather maps which showed a weak counterclockwise rotation over southern Texas.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the western and southern parts of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system could move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

If the low pressure system moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, it will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical storm.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 60% that a tropical storm forms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Reconnaissance planes have been tentatively tasked to fly into the the low pressure system on Tuesday night and Wednesday, if necessary.

The low pressure system has already dropped heavy rain over parts of South Texas and northern Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for South Texas, southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, and southern Mississippi.

 

Cristina Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Leave a reply

Former Tropical Storm Cristina weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Cristina was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 88.9°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southeast of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Cristina was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the entire coast of El Salvador.

Former Tropical Storm Cristina weakened to a tropical depression south of El Salvador on Wednesday afternoon.  An upper level ridge over Mexico was producing northerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Cristina’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused some of the thunderstorms in former Tropical Storm Cristina to dissipate.  The wind shear also caused Cristina to weaken to a tropical depression.

Some of the thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Depression Cristina dissipated on Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in a band southwest of the center of Cristina’s circulation.  Other thunderstorms were still occurring in a band in the northeastern part of Tropical Depression Cristina.  The thunderstorms in Cristina generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Cristina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Cristina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  The upper level ridge that is over Mexico will continue to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Cristina’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The intensity of Tropical Depression Cristina is not likely to change much during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Depression Cristina will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Cristina toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Cristina will reach the coast of El Salvador during Wednesday night.

Tropical Depression Cristina will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to El Salvador and to southern Guatemala.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Cristina Meanders West of Nicaragua

Leave a reply

Tropical Storm Cristina was meandering over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean just to the west of northwestern Nicaragua on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 87.8°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) west-northwest of Managua, Nicaragua.   Cristina was moving toward the west-northwest at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Pacific coast of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire coast of El Salvador.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristina exhibited more organization on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Cristina’s circulation.  New thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Cristina.  Bands in the eastern and northern sections of Cristina’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Cristina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure did not change much.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Cristina was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the southern half of Cristina’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Storm Cristina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Cristina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level low that is over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cristina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  The vertical wind shear is forecast to be a little less on Wednesday.  Tropical Storm Cristina could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Cristina will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Cristina toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Cristina will approach the coast of El Salvador on Wednesday evening.

Tropical Storm Cristina will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of northwestern Nicaragua, the Pacific coast of Honduras, and the coast of El Salvador.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Boris continued to weaken as it move inland over southern Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Boris was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 98.9°W which put the center about 65 miles (105 km) east of Acapulco, Mexico.  Boris was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Boris Drops Heavy Rain on Southern Mexico

Leave a reply

Tropical Storm Boris dropped heavy rain over parts of southern Mexico on early on Tuesday.  Boris weakened to a tropical depression as it moved inland over southern Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Boris was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 98.5°W which put the center about 95 miles (150 km) east of Acapulco, Mexico.  Boris was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Depression Boris was dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Mexico early on Tuesday.  The center of Boris’ circulation made landfall on the coast of southern Mexico just to the east of Punta Maldonado.  Boris was dropping heavy rain on parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.

Tropical Depression Boris will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over southeastern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Boris toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Boris will continue to move inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical Depression Boris will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca as it moves farther inland.  Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Cristina was meandering near the coast of northwestern Nicaragua.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 87.8°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) west-northwest of Managua, Nicaragua.   Cristina was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Pacific coast of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire coast of El Salvador.

Tropical Storm Cristina Forms West of Nicaragua

Leave a reply

Tropical Storm Cristina formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Nicaragua on Monday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 87.7°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) west-southwest of Managua, Nicaragua.  Cristina was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Pacific coast of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire coast of El Salvador.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Nicaragua strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Cristina.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Cristina was asymmetrical because of vertical wind shear.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Cristina’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Cristina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Cristina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristina was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Cristina’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Cristina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level low that is over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Cristina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristina could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Cristina will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Cristina toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Cristina will move toward the coast of Honduras and El Salvador.

Tropical Storm Cristina will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain the coast of northwestern Nicaragua, the Pacific coast of Honduras, and the coast of El Salvador.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Boris strengthened a little south of Mexico.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Boris was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 99.2°W which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.   Boris was moving toward the east-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Laguna de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Acapulco.

Tropical Storm Boris will bring strong winds and very heavy rain to parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Boris

Leave a reply

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Boris over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southeast of Acapulco, Mexico early on Monday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Boris was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 99.2°W which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.   Boris was moving toward the northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Laguna de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Acapulco.

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened early on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Boris.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Boris on Sunday night.  More thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Boris’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Boris generated upper level divergence that was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly,

Although the circulation around Tropical Storm Boris was large, the strongest winds were occurring close to the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Boris’ circulation.

Tropical Storm Boris will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Boris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Boris’ circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Boris could intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Boris around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over southeastern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Boris toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Boris will make landfall on the coast of Mexico near Acapulco later on Monday.

Tropical Storm Boris will being strong winds and very heavy rain to parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Two-E Forms South of Acapulco

Leave a reply

Tropical Depression Two-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Acapulco, Mexico on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Laguna de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Acapulco.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Acapulco strengthened on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-E.

A few more thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Depression Two-E on Sunday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of Tropical Depression Two-E started to generate upper level divergence that was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease slowly,

Tropical Depression Two-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Two-E could intensify to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two-E around the western side of a high pressure system that is over southeastern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two-E will make landfall on the coast of Mexico east of Acapulco in less than 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Two-E could be a tropical storm at the time of landfall.  In any case, the tropical depression or tropical storm will being strong winds and heavy rain to Guerrero and Oaxaca.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Amanda continued to weaken slowly far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Amanda was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 135.4°W which put the center about 1425 miles (2295 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Amanda was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Amanda Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Leave a reply

Former Tropical Storm Amanda weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean east-southeast of Hawaii on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Amanda was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 134.7°W which put the center about 1445 miles (2325 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Amanda was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Amanda weakened to a tropical depression on Saturday.  A combination of dry, stable air and vertical wind shear caused many of the remaining thunderstorms in Amanda’s circulation to dissipate.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Depression Amanda.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Amanda’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

There were no thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Depression Amanda to generate upper level divergence.  Convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

Tropical Depression Amanda will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Amanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Amanda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Depression Amanda will continue to move through a region of drier air.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air will cause Tropical Depression Amanda to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Amanda will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Amanda slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Amanda will remain far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Amanda Spins Southwest of Baja California

Leave a reply

Tropical Storm Amanda continued to spin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the southwest of Baja California on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 134.1°W which put the center about 1725 miles (2775 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Amanda was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Amanda started to weaken on Friday as it spun far to the southwest of Baja California.  Amanda moved into a region with drier, more stable air.  The drier air and more vertical wind shear caused some of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Amanda to dissipate.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands west of the center of Amanda’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Amanda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Thunderstorms west of the center of Tropical Storm Amanda generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the net inflow of mass caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Amanda was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Amanda’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Amanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is west of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Amanda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. In addition, Tropical Storm Amanda will continue to move through a region of drier air.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air will cause Tropical Storm Amanda to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Amanda slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Amanda will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.