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Tropical Cyclone Jasper Forms Near the Solomon Islands

Tropical Cyclone Jasper formed over the Coral Sea near the Solomon Islands on Monday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 9.6°S and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) west of Honiara, Guadacanal. Jasper was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea near the Solomon Islands strengthened during Monday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasper was organizing rapidly. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are ridge weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will intensify during the next 36 hours. Jasper will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasper will move away from the Solomon Islands. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in the Solomon Islands until it moves away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could approach the coast of Queensland, Australia in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung Brings Wind and Rain to Southeast India

Tropical Cyclone Michaung brought wind and rain to southeast India on Monday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 80.1°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) northeast of Nellore, India. Michaung was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung intensified to the threshold of a hurricane/typhoon before the center made landfall on the coast of Andhra Pradesh north of Nellore. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Michaung’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Michaung toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move along the southern coast of Andhra Pradesh. The center of Michaung will pass near Ongole on Tuesday. The India Meteorological Department issued Cyclone Warnings for the coasts of Andhra Pradesh, North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Bands in the northern and western parts of Michaung’s circulation were already dropping rain over northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. There were reports of flooding in Chennai.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will weaken gradually as the center of circulation remains inland as it moves near the coast of Andhra Pradesh. Michaung will drop heavy rain on parts of Andhra Pradesh as it weakens. Heavy rain could cause additional floods in other locations. Tropical Cyclone Michaung could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung Intensifies Southeast of Nellore, India

Tropical Cyclone Michaung intensified over the Bay of Bengal southeast of Nellore, India on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 80.7°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Nellore, India. Michaung was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung intensified to the threshold of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal southeast of Nellore, India on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Michaung’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Michaung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Michaung’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. The western part of Tropical Cyclone Michaung’s circulation will be over southeastern India. Even though almost half of Michaung will be over land, the center of circulation will still be over the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Michaung could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Michaung toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move toward the coast of southeast India. The center of Michaung will approach the coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam in 18 hours. The India Meteorological Department issued Cyclone Warnings for the coasts of Andhra Pradesh, North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Tropical Cyclone Michaung will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeast India. Bands in the western side of Michaung’s circulation were already dropping rain over northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. There were reports of flooding in Chennai. Heavy rain could cause additional floods in other locations. Tropical Cyclone Michaung could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Forming over Solomon Islands

A tropical cyclone is forming over the Solomon Islands. The system is currently designated as Invest 92P by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 1:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Invest 92P was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 158.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) west-northwest of Honiara, Guadacanal. Invest 92P was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the Solomon Islands was gradually becoming better organized on Monday morning. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the system as Invest 92P. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the low pressure system. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Invest 92P is very likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.

The low pressure system will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Invest 92P toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move away from the Solomon Islands and over the Coral Sea. Invest 92P will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in the Solomon Islands until it moves away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung Strengthens East of Chennai, India

Tropical Cyclone Michaung strengthened over the Bay of Bengal east of Chennai, India on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 81.7°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east of Chennai, India. Michaung was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung strengthened gradually on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Michaung’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Michaung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Michaung’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Michaung system will intensify during the next 24 hours. Michaung could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Michaung toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move toward the coast of southeast India. The center of Michaung will approach the coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam in 36 hours. The India Meteorological Department issued Cyclone Alerts for the coasts of Andhra Pradesh, North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Tropical Cyclone Michaung will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeast India. Bands in the western side of Michaung’s circulation were already dropping rain over northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Michaung could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung Develops over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Michaung developed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Saturday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 82.3°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southeast of Chennai, India. Michaung was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Saturday evening and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Michaung. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Michaung’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Michaung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Michaung’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Michaung system will intensify during the next 24 hours. Michaung could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Michaung toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move toward the coast of southeast India. The center of Michaung could be east of Chennai in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Michaung will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeast India. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. The India Meteorological Department issued Cyclone Alerts for the coasts of Andhra Pradesh, North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Low Pressure System Forms over Bay of Bengal

A low pressure system formed over the Bay of Bengal on Thursday. The low pressure system was designated as Invest 95B. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of a low pressure system was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 86.3°E which put it about 485 miles (780 km) southeast of Chennai, India. The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal exhibited more organization on Thursday evening. The pattern of clouds began to look more like a developing tropical cyclone. More thunderstorms formed in bands around the low pressure system. The bands started to revolve around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system.

The low pressure system will be in an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Invest 95B will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The low pressure system will intensify during the next 36 hours. It is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone.

The low pressure system will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Invest 95B toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move toward the coast of southeast India. It could approach the coast as a tropical cyclone by the end of the weekend.

Former Tropical Storm Ramon Weakens

Former Tropical Storm Ramon weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of former Tropical Storm Ramon was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 123.9°W which put it about 1085 miles (1750 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ramon was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A large upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean produced strong southwesterly winds that blew the top off of former Tropical Storm Ramon. The remaining circulation of former Tropical Storm Ramon in the lower levels consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds. Strong upper level winds blew the tops off of any clouds that rose higher in the atmosphere.

Former Tropical Storm Ramon will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ramon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. However, the large upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific will continue to produce strong southwesterly winds. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause formed Tropical Storm Ramon to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Since the circulation of former Tropical Storm Ramon only exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by the winds near the surface of the Earth. Former Tropical Storm Ramon will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific. The high pressure system will steer former Tropical Storm Ramon toward the west during the next 36 hours.

TD 20E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Ramon

Former Tropical Depression Twenty-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Ramon over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 122.6°W which put it about 1040 miles (1675 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ramon was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Twenty-E exhibited more organization on Friday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Ramon. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Ramon was still asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Ramon’s circulation. Bands in the western side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical, Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern side of Ramon’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Ramon were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ramon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ramon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ramon’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to prevent some further intensification during the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Ramon could intensify a little during the first half of Saturday. The upper level winds are forecast to get stronger later on Saturday. Stronger upper level winds would cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear would cause Tropical Storm Ramon to start to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ramon will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ramon slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ramon will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Depression 20E Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Depression Twenty-E (20E) formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 121.9°W which put it about 1090 miles (1755 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Thursday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twenty-E. Tropical Depression 20E had a well defined low level circulation, but it was in an environment of strong vertical wind shear. The tropical depression was under the eastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical. Bands near the center of Tropical Depression 20E and in the northwestern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. The northwesterly winds in the upper levels could weaken a little on Friday. Tropical Depression Twenty-E could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if the wind shear decreases.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twenty-E will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.