Monthly Archives: September 2021

Tropical Storm Nicholas Forms over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Nicholas formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 94.8°W which put it about 405 miles (645 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Nicholas was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Barra el Mezquital, Mexico to Port Aransas, Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to High Island, Texas.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found sustained winds of tropical storm force in a low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nicholas. The circulation around Tropical Storm Nicholas was still organizing. Thunderstorms began to form near the center of Nicholas. Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nicholas. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicholas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move between and upper level low over northern Mexico and an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper low and ridge will produce south-southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nicholas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken on Monday and Tropical Storm Nicholas could strengthen more quickly when that occurs. There is a chance that Nicholas could intensify to a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move around the western side of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Nicholas toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicholas will approach the coast near the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on Monday. Nicholas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal areas of northern Mexico and southern Texas on Monday. Tropical Storm Nicholas could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along portions of the coast.

Typhoon Chanthu Brings Wind and Rain to Taiwan

Typhoon Chanthu brought wind and rain to Taiwan on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Chanthu was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 121.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southeast of Hualien, Taiwan. Chanthu was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

Bands in the northwestern part of Typhoon Chanthu brought wind and rain to eastern Taiwan on Saturday morning. Typhoon Chanthu appeared to be in the middle of another eyewall replacement cycle. A small eye was present at the center of Chanthu. The eye was surrounded by concentric eyewalls. The strongest winds were occurring in the innermost eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Chanthu. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The current eyewall replacement cycle increased the overall size of the circulation around Typhoon Chanthu. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chanthu was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.8. Typhoon Chanthu was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Chanthu will move over water capable of supporting an intense typhoon during the next 24 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The current eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Chanthu to weaken if the innermost eyewall dissipates.

Typhoon Chanthu will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific. The high pressure system will steer Chanthu toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Chanthu will be near northeastern Taiwan in 18 hours. Typhoon Chanthu will drop very heavy rain over eastern Taiwan. The risk of flash floods is very high. Even though the core of Chanthu may pass just east of Taiwan, strong winds are likely to cause damage along the east coast of Taiwan.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Conson was approaching toward central Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Conson was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 109.0°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Conson was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Hurricane Larry Brings Wind and Rain to Newfoundland

Hurricane Larry brought wind and rain to Newfoundland on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 46.8°N and longitude 54.9°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Larry was moving toward the north-northeast at 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Arnold’s Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland. The Hurricane Warning included St. John’s. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Francios to Arnold’s Cove and from Jones Harbour to Fogo Island, Newfoundland.

Hurricane Larry brought strong winds and heavy rain to southeastern Newfoundland on Friday night. Larry was a large hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the eastern side of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Larry. Rain was falling from Marystown to Bonavista. St. John’s International Airport was reporting heavy rain with a sustained wind speed of 42 m.p.h. (68 km/h) and wind gusts to 58 m.p.h. (94 km/h).

Hurricane Larry will move quickly across southeastern Newfoundland. Larry will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the Labrador Sea. The extratropical cyclone could bring heavy precipitation to parts of Greenland on Sunday.

Olaf Weakens to Tropical Storm over Southern Baja California

Former Hurricane Olaf weakened to a tropical storm when it passed over southern Baja California on Friday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Loreto. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

Former Hurricane Olaf weakened on Friday when the circulation passed over mountains in the southern part of Baja California. The low level center of circulation of Tropical Storm Olaf was visible on satellite images. The low level center was back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Cabo San Lazaro. There were mainly showers and lower clouds near the low level center. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Olaf that were over Baja California and the Gulf of California. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. A weather station in Puerto Cortes, Mexico recently reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

Tropical Storm Olaf will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25˚C. The air over the cooler water is drier and more stable. Drier, more stable air will inhibit the develop of thunderstorms. If new thunderstorms do not form near the center of Tropical Storm Olaf during the next 12 hours, it will gradually weaken. Olaf is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday.

The future track of Tropical Storm Olaf will depend on how fast Olaf weakens. If no new thunderstorms develop near the center of Olaf, then the tropical storm will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Olaf toward the west-southwest during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will gradually move away from Baja California.

Hurricane Larry Races Toward Newfoundland

Hurricane Larry raced toward Newfoundland on Friday morning. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 40.0°N and longitude 60.5°W which put it about 595 miles (955 km) southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Larry was moving toward the north-northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Arnold’s Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland. The Hurricane Warning included St. John’s. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Francios to Arnold’s Cove and from Jones Harbour to Fogo Island, Newfoundland.

The structure of Hurricane Larry changed as it raced toward the north-northeast. A rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall and it appeared that concentric eyewalls may have formed. Microwave satellite imagery showed indications of a smaller inner eye inside a much larger outer eye. Drier air was being pulled into the circulation around Hurricane Larry. Zones of drier air with fewer clouds were beginning to appear between the rainbands.

The circulation around Hurricane Larry was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Larry was 11.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 27.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.4. Hurricane Larry was about 60% of the size of Hurricane Sandy (2012).

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment that will allow Larry to maintain its intensity until it reaches Newfoundland. Larry will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Larry’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the southwesterly winds will also contribute to upper level divergence to the northeast of Hurricane Larry. Enhanced upper level divergence will allow the pressure at the surface to remain low. In addition, Hurricane Larry will begin to make a transformation to an extratropical cyclone when it nears Newfoundland.

The upper trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Larry rapidly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Larry will reach Newfoundland on Friday night. Larry will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Newfoundland. Widespread power outages could occur. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Chanthu Brings Wind and Rain to Northeast Luzon

Typhoon Chanthu brought wind and rain to northeastern Luzon on Friday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Chanthu was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Aparri, Philippines. Chanthu was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (320 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Even though the center of Typhoon Chanthu was passing northeast of northeastern Luzon, bands on the western side of Chanthu brought gusty wind and heavy rain to northeastern Luzon. Typhoon Chanthu strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after it completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. A circular eye was present at the center of Chanthu. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Chanthu generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Chanthu was relatively small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chanthu was 36.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.9. Typhoon Chanthu was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Chanthu will move over water capable of supporting an intense typhoon during the next 24 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, another eyewall replacement cycle could start. If another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, Typhoon Chanthu would weaken, but the size of the circulation would increase.

Typhoon Chanthu will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer Chanthu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Chanthu will gradually move away from northeastern Luzon. Chantu will approach southern Taiwan in 24 hours. Typhoon Chanthu will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan. Widespread flash floods could occur.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Conson moved toward central Vietnam. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Conson was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 111.7°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Conson was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Hurricane Olaf Makes Landfall on Southern Tip of Baja California

Hurricane Olaf made landfall on southern tip of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) east-northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico and from Los Barriles to Loreto, Mexico.

The eye of Hurricane Olaf made landfall on the southern tip of Baja California near San Jose del Cabo on Thursday night. Olaf continued to intensify right up until the center moved ashore. Hurricane Olaf strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale prior to landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Olaf was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0

Hurricane Olaf was capable of causing regional serious damage. Olaf will produce strong winds over the southern part of Baja California. Wind damage could cause widespread power outages. Hurricane Olaf will also drop heavy rain over the region and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Olaf will move northwest over Baja California during the next 24 hours. Mountains will begin to disrupt the circulation and Olaf will weaken. The area of heavy rain will move northward, as will the risk for flash floods.

Dangerous Typhoon Chanthu Nears Northeast Luzon

Dangerous Typhoon Chanthu neared northeastern Luzon on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Chanthu was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 123.7°E which put it about 135 miles (215 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Chanthu was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Typhoon Chanthu completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday and Chanthu was strengthening again. The original eye and eyewall were almost entirely dissipated. A new, slightly larger eye was visible at the center of Typhoon Chanthu on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Chanthu. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

Although the eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the core of Typhoon Chanthu, the total circulation around Chanthu was relative small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chanthu was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.3. Typhoon Chanthu was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Chanthu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Chanthu could strengthen during the next 12 hours. Chanthu will weaken if the core of the typhoon moves over northeastern Luzon. If the core of Typhoon Chanthu passes northeast of Luzon, then it could maintain its intensity during the next 36 hours.

Typhoon Chanthu will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer Chanthu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Chanthu will pass very close to northeastern Luzon. Chanthu could cause severe damage to northeastern Luzon. Typhoon Chantu will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods. Typhoon Chantu could affect Taiwan during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Conson moved toward central Vietnam. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Conson was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 112.2°E which put it about 280 miles (460 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Conson was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Hurricane Larry Passes East of Bermuda

Hurricane Larry passed east of Bermuda on Thursday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 62.0°W which put it about 170 miles (280 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. Larry was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove, Newfoundland. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lamaline to St, Schotts, Newfoundland and from Pouch Cove to Bonavista, Newfoundland.

The center of Hurricane Larry passed east of Bermuda on Friday afternoon. Bands on the western edge of Larry’s circulation brought rain and gusty winds to Bermuda. Hurricane Larry was still a well organized hurricane. A circular eye was present at the center of Larry. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Larry. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Larry was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Larry was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.3.

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment that should allow it to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28˚C. It will move around the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Larry’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. However, the winds in the lower levels will also blow from the southwest. So, there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Hurricane Larry will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream on Friday. Larry will begin to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it gets north of the Gulf Stream.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Larry toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Larry will move quickly away from Bermuda. Hurricane Larry could reach southeastern Newfoundland on Friday night. Larry will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Newfoundland.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Mindy dropped locally heavy rain over the southeast coast of the U.S. on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. Mindy was moving toward the east-northeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Olaf Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Olaf strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Baja California on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Olaf was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 108.3°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning Was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Sante Fe, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Olaf intensified quickly to a hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Olaf. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olaf. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Olaf. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Olaf will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Olaf’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Hurricane Olaf. Olaf will strengthen during the next 12 hours and there is a chance it could intensify to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Olaf will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high will steer Olaf toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will approach the southern end of Baja California on Thursday night. Olaf will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Olaf will also cause a storm surge along the southern end of Baja California.