Tag Archives: Mexico

Tropical Storm Dolores Strengthens Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Dolores strengthened near the west coast of Mexico on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 103.4°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Dolores was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dolores exhibited much more organization on Saturday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western, southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Dolores. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Dolores was relatively small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Dolores.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Dolores will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak in that portion of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Dolores could strengthen to a hurricane before it makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move around the western end of a small high pressure system over southern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Dolores toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dolores could make landfall on the coast of Mexico east of Manzanillo in a few hours. Dolores could be a hurricane when it makes landfall. Tropical Storm Dolores will bring gusty winds to the region near and to the east of Manzanillo. It could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) in some locations on the coast. Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Dolores could drop heavy rain on parts of western Guerrero, Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Dolores Forms South of Mexico, Warning Issued

Tropical Storm Dolores formed south of Mexico on Friday morning and the government of Mexico issued warnings and watches for portions of the coast. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 102.5°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Dolores was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa, Mexico.

The circulation around a low pressure system south of Mexico strengthened on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dolores. Dolores exhibited increasing organization on conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Dolores.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dolores will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Dolores. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Dolores will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move around the western end of a small high pressure system over southern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Dolores toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dolores could approach the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday. Dolores could be a hurricane when it approaches the coast. Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Dolores could drop heavy rain on parts of Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Likely to Form over Western Gulf of Mexico

A tropical depression is likely to form over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours within a broad area of low pressure currently designated as Invest 92L. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 92L was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 93.6.W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east-southeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Invest 92L was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The weather system designated as Invest 92L was actually a complex circulation consisting of parts of several different weather features. A broad surface low pressure system extended from the Eastern North Pacific Ocean across Mexico over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The northern end of a tropical wave at the surface was over the Yucatan Peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system in the middle and upper troposphere was over the western gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico. An upper level ridge was over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern periphery of the broad surface low. Drier air in the middle and upper levels was over the western Gulf of Mexico and the drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in other parts of Invest 92L. Several small circulation centers formed within clusters of thunderstorms on the eastern side of the broader low during the past two days. Those centers moved toward the west-southwest and dissipated over Mexico.

The environment around Invest 92L will become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 36 hours. Invest 92L will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. The upper level low and the upper ridge will interact to produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Invest 92L. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they will also be a source of upper level divergence to the east of Invest 92L. The upper level divergence will cause the surface pressure to decrease slowly . The drier air over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms on the western side of the broad low pressure system. The inner end of a rainband will wrap closer to the center, but most of the thunderstorms are likely to remain in the eastern half of Invest 92L. The National Hurricane Center indicated that the probability is 80% that a tropical depression will form during the next 48 hours.

The upper level low and the upper ridge will steer Invest 92L slowly toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the low pressure system could approach the coast of eastern Texas and Louisiana by Friday night. Invest 92L could be a tropical depression or a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. It will likely drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland.

Low Pressure over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

A broad area of low pressure was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. The system was designated as Invest 92L. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 92L was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 96.0°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. The area of low pressure was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

The broad area of low pressure exhibited a little more organization on Sunday afternoon. There was an apparent low level center located north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. However, there were few thunderstorms near the apparent center. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring far to the east and north of the apparent center. Some of the stronger winds were occurring in the thunderstorms far to the east and north of that center.

Invest 92L is likely to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. The broad area of low pressure will be in an area somewhat favorable for the development of a tropical depression. Invest 92L will be over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will be under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered south of Mexico. The ridge will produce westerly winds which will blow across the top of the broad low pressure system. The westerly winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. The upper level ridge could move a little farther north in two or three days, which would cause the westerly winds to weaken. If that happens, then the conditions could become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 50% that a tropical depression forms during the next five days.

Tropical Storm Carlos Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Carlos formed southwest of Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 124.5°W which put it about 1225 miles (1970 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Carlos was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system southwest of Baja California exhibited more organization on satellite imagery on Saturday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlos. More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Carlos. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Carlos. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Carlos. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Carlos will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Carlos will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Carlos. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they already contributed to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Carlos will likely strengthen on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Carlos will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Carlos toward the west during the next 24 hours. The steering currents could weaken during the early part of next week and Tropical Storm Carlos could meander slowly well to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Blanca Weakens South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Blanca weakened south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Blanca was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

After reaching its maximum intensity on Monday night when the sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h), Tropical Storm Blanca weakened on Tuesday afternoon. An upper level trough west of Baja California produced moderate southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Blanca’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the shear caused Tropical Storm Blanca to weaken. The vertical wind shear also caused an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms around Blanca. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Blanca. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Blanca.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Blanca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However the upper level trough west of Baja California will cause strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear will cause Blanca to weaken. Tropical Storm Blanca could weaken to a tropical depression in a day or two.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Blanca toward the west-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blanca will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Blanca Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Blanca developed southwest of Mexico on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 108.9°W which put it about 520 miles (840 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blanca was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Blanca. The circulation around Blanca organized quickly on Monday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Blanca was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of Blanca.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Blanca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Blanca will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Blanca toward the west-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blanca will move away from Mexico.

Andres Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Andres weakened to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear caused former Tropical Storm Andres to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. An upper level trough northwest of Baja California was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Depression Andres. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were blowing the tops off of thunderstorms that tried to form. A few thunderstorms developed east of the center of Andres earlier on Monday, but the strong upper level winds blew the tops off of those storms. The circulation around Tropical Depression Andres consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Monday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Andres will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the upper level trough northwest of Baja California will continue to produce strong upper level winds over Tropical Depression Andres. The strong upper level winds will blow the tops off any thunderstorms that begin to form and the circulation around Andres will gradually weaken.

Since the circulation around Tropical Depression Andres exists primarily in the lower levels, it will be steered by the wind closer to the surface. A large surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Andres toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Andres will dissipate southwest of Baja California later this week.

TD 01E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Andres

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Andres southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 107.9°W which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Andres. The circulation around Andres was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Andres. The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Andres. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Andres will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Andres could strengthen during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach Andres from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Andres to weaken early next week.

Tropical Storm Andres will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer Andres toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Storm Andres will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer Andres toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Andres will remain south of Baja California.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Depression One-E formed southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system formerly called Invest 90E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E. The circulation around the depression was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the depression began to generate more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from it. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for develop of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. The tropical depression will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression One-E is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach the depression from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause the depression to weaken early next week.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Depression One-E will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression One-E will remain south of Baja California.