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Subtropical Storm Nicole Strengthens

Subtropical Storm Nicole strengthened on Tuesday morning as it moved over the Western Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.7°N and longitude 72.0°W which put it about 385 miles (615 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

Subtropical Storm Nicole began a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning as it gradually strengthened. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole, which is one of the characteristics of a subtropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out almost 400 miles (645 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to complete the transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Subtropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Prompts Hurricane Watch for South Florida

A probable threat posed by Subtropical Storm Nicole prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for part of South Florida on Monday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 465 miles (720 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami.

Subtropical Storm Nicole was churning over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas on Monday afternoon. The circulation around Subtropical Storm Nicole continued to exhibit a complex structure that is fairly common late in the hurricane season. The surface center of circulation was northeast of an upper level low east of Florida. The strongest winds near the surface were occurring far to the east of the surface center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the eastern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Nicole. The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Nicole’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a gradual transition to a tropical storm during the next 48 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level low east of Florida will produce southerly winds that will blow across the top of the surface center of Subtropical Storm Nicole during the next 24 hours. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Nicole will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker on Tuesday and the wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to make a transition to a tropical storm when it moves over the warmer water. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The upper level low east of Florida will steer Subtropical Storm Nicole toward the northwest during the next 18 hours. A surface high pressure system currently over the Great Lakes will move over the East Coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will block Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole could reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole could reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Forms East of the Bahamas

Subtropical Storm Nicole formed east of the Bahamas on Monday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 69.1°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas.

A large low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas exhibited more organization on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Nicole. The circulation around Subtropical Storm Nicole exhibited a complex structure that is fairly common late in the hurricane season. The surface center of circulation was northeast of an upper level low east of Florida. The strongest winds near the surface were occurring far to the east of the surface center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the eastern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. The winds in the western side of Nicole’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a gradual transition to a tropical storm. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level low east of Florida will produce southerly winds that will blow across the top of the surface center of Subtropical Storm Nicole during the next 24 hours. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Nicole will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker on Tuesday and the wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to make a transition to a tropical storm when it moves over the warmer water. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The upper level low east of Florida will steer Subtropical Storm Nicole toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. A surface high pressure system currently over the Great Lakes will move over the East Coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will block Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole could reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole could reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Ian Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

One time major hurricane and former Tropical Storm Ian strengthened back to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Vero Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.

The structure of Hurricane Ian contains elements of a hurricane and elements of an extratropical cyclone. Ian has a warm core in the middle and upper troposphere, which makes it a hurricane. However, cooler, drier air wrapped around the southern side of Ian and a cold front is forming east of Ian. The developing cold front is an element of an extratropical cyclone. Many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Ian are occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Ian’s circulation.

The wind field around Hurricane Ian also changed when Ian started a transition to an extratropical cyclones. The circulation around Ian is interacting with a large high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes. The interaction of Ian’s circulation with the high pressure system is causing the strongest winds to be in the northwestern quadrant of Hurricane Ian. Winds to hurricane force extend out 45 miles (75 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ian. The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ian also increased when it started the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 400 miles (645 km) in the eastern side of Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 230 miles (370 km) in the western side.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could intensify, if the center moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream current. More thunderstorms could form near the center of Ian’s circulation and could look more like a hurricane for a few hours. The vertical wind shear will eventually cause Hurricane Ian to gradually continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. Ian is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with a stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce very heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Ian Near Cape Canaveral

The center of Tropical Storm Ian was near Cape Canaveral, Florida on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) west of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Ian was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch included Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

Tropical Storm Ian was still producing strong winds along the east coast of Florida on Thursday morning. A National Weather Service station in Daytona Beach, Florida (KDAB) reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 m.p.h. (122 km/h).

Former major Hurricane Ian weakened to a tropical storm while it blew across Central Florida on Wednesday night. The structure of Ian also changed when it weakened. The areas of tropical storm force winds expanded over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) on the east side of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the western side of the circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ian. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ian consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Ian was in the early stage of a transition to an extratropical cyclone. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear was tilting upper part of Ian’s circulation toward the northeast. The wind shear was also starting Ian’s transition to an extratropical cyclone. Drier air was wrapping around the southern side of Tropical Storm Ian. The drier air was contributing to the lack of heavy rain in the southern and eastern parts of Ian.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Ian could intensify, if the center moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream current. Ian could strengthen back to a hurricane during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Ian toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center Tropical Storm Ian could make landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. Ian could be a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 6 feet (1.2 to 1.8 meters could occur.

Hurricane Ian Pounds Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian was pounding southwest Florida on Wednesday afternoon. At 3:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) west-southwest of Punta Gorda, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch included Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

The National Hurricane Center stated that the center of Hurricane Ian officially made landfall on Cayo Costa, west-northwest of Ft. Myers at 3:10 p.m. EDT on Wednesday. Ian was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.7. Hurricane Ian was stronger and much bigger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley made landfall in Southwest Florida in 2004. Ian was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura, when Laura hit Lake Charles, Louisiana in 2020. Hurricane Ian was also similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Mexico Beach, Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Ian was producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain and a storm surge along the coast of Southwest Florida. A weather station maintained by the River, Estuary and Coastal Network at Redfish Pass, Florida reported a sustained wind speed of 94 m.p.h. (151 km/h) and a wind gust of 126 m.p.h. (203 km/h). A weather station at the Punta Gorda airport reported a wind gust of 124 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The Cape Coral Fire Department reported a wind gust of 110 m.p.h. (177 km/h). A station in Naples, Florida reported a storm surge of 9.05 feet (2.76 meters) and the water level was still rising. A station in Ft. Myers, Florida reported a storm surge of 5.76 feet (1.75 meters) and the water level was still rising.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Ian will move inland over Southwest Florida. Ian will move across Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing severe damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of up to 12 to 16 feet (3.5 to 5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could be near the east coast of Florida on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane Ian could bring strong, gusty winds to the coast of the Southeastern U.S. on Thursday night and Friday. The wind will blow water toward the coast and water levels will rise along the coast.

Hurricane Ian Moves Closer to Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian moved closer to Southwest Florida on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 82.9°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southwest of Naples, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian appeared to go through a quick eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday evening. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. The new eye had a diameter of 35 miles (55 km). The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle temporarily interrupted the intensification of Hurricane Ian, but it also caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next 12 hours to prevent intensification of Hurricane Ian. Ian could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. The upper level winds are likely to get stronger on Wednesday afternoon which would cause the wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall near the location where Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004. Ian will not be as strong as Charley was in 2004, but Ian will be a lot bigger than Charley. Hurricane Ian could be stronger than Hurricane Irma was in 2017 when Irma hit Southwest Florida, but Ian will not be as big as Irma was.

Major Hurricane Ian Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to a major hurricane before it hit western Cuba on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 83.6°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Ian was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Channel 5e Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to a major hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Ian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1. Hurricane Ian was very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey from 2017 and Hurricane Delta from 2020. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Ian is not likely to spend enough time over western Cuba for Ian to weaken significantly. After the core of Hurricane Ian moves north of Cuba, Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the north during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian more toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Ian will move away from western Cuba. Weather conditions should gradually improve over western Cuba as Ian moves farther away. Hurricane Ian will be south-southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday morning. The winds steering Ian could weaken later on Wednesday. Hurricane Ian could make landfall just south of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday evening. Ian could move very slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday.

Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) could occur in parts of Tampa Bay. Storm surges will also occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

Hurricane Ian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 83.2°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida and from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 over the northwestern Caribbean Sea south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 13 miles (20 km) formed at the center of Ian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Ian got bigger on Monday afternoon as Ian got stronger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 18 hours. Hurricane Ian could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian will be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Hurricane Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian will be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ian will be capable of causing regional major damage in western Cuba. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The steering currents could weaken on Wednesday. If the steering currents weaken, the center of Hurricane Ian could stall just west or northwest of the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg. The strongest winds will be in the eastern side of Ian’s circulation. The area around Tampa and St. Petersburg could experience a prolonged period of strong winds. When the center of Ian is west of Tampa, the winds will blow from the south in the area around Tampa. Southerly winds will push water into Tampa Bay and a storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3.0 meters) is possible. If Hurricane Ian stalls, some locations in west central Florida could receive 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause fresh water flooding.

Disturbance Drops Rain on Southeast U.S.

A disturbance designated as Invest 90L dropped rain over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 32.7°N and longitude 86.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northwest of Montgomery, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A disturbance that formed over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend moved quickly toward the north-northeast and it was located over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. The center of the disturbance made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday night near Pensacola, Florida. The disturbance was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Alabama and western Georgia on Monday morning. The disturbance will move quickly toward the north-northeast and it will merge with a cold front over the southeastern U.S. Locally heavy rain will spread over eastern Tennessee, western South Carolina, western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and West Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.