Tag Archives: North Carolina

Hurricane Dorian Hammers the Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Dorian hammered the Northwestern Bahamas on Monday.  After pounding the Abacos on Sunday night, Hurricane Dorian moved slowly across Grand Bahama Island before stalling over that island for much of Monday.  There were reports of significant storms surges, numerous injuries and some fatalities.  Dorian was still battering Grand Bahama Island on Monday night.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northeast of Freeport, Bahamas and about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was essentially stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet and from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach and for Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Dorian weakened slowly on Monday.  As it remained nearly stationary the winds around Dorian mixed cooler water to the surface.  Hurricane Dorian was unable to extract enough energy from the ocean to maintain its extreme intensity,  The circulation in core of Dorian developed two concentric eyewalls.  The concentric eyewalls suggested that the hurricane had started an eyewall replacement cycle which may have also contributed to the reduction of the wind speed.

The concentric eyewalls also produced an increase in the size of the circulation around Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out abou 150 miles from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15,2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.3.

Hurricane Dorian was south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high was blocking Dorian and preventing the hurricane from moving toward the north.  The western end of the high is forecast to weaken on Tuesday.  When the end of the high weakens, it will allow Hurricane Dorian to move toward the northwest.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will approach Dorian on Wednesday.  The trough is forecast to turn Dorian toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could approach the Central Florida coast by Tuesday night.  Dorian could approach the Carolinas on Wednesday night.

Hurricane Dorian will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it starts moving again on Tuesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Dorian could still be in the weakening part of the eyewall replacement cycle and Dorian may not intensify despite the favorable environment.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause wind shear to increase on Wednesday.  The increase in wind shear will likely cause Hurricane Dorian to weaken when it approaches the Carolinas.

Hurricane Dorian Pounds Northwest Bahamas, Warning Issued for Florida

Hurricane Dorian pounded the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday afternoon and a Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the southeast Florida coast.  Dorian was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Dorian was locate at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 77.3°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 910 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast of Florida from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.  Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida and from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for Andros Island.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from  Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, Florida and for Lake Okeechobee.

The core of Hurricane Dorian moved over Great Abaco Island on Sunday afternoon.  Dorian intensified rapidly to an intense Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reached the warm water around the Bahamas.  The pressure decreased rapidly to 910 mb and the winds increased to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) at the center of Hurricane Dorian.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dorian.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (220 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 44.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14,3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 58.4.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.  Dorian was stronger than Hurricane Andrew was when Andrew hit southeast Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Dorian will remain in a favorable environment for intense hurricanes for another 24 to 36 hours.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  It appeared that an inner rainband may have wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  Radar images indicated that there could be two concentric eyewalls.  If there are two eyewalls, then an eyewall replacement cycle is underway.  Hurricane Dorian will weaken, at least temporarily when the inner eyewall dissipates.  However, Dorian will get larger when the strongest winds occur in the outer eyewall.

Hurricane Dorian will move near the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Eventually, Hurricane Dorian will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will linger over the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday night.  The core of Dorian will pass over or very near Grand Bahama Island.  It could cause catastrophic damage on the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  Hurricane Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida on Tuesday.

Hurricane Dorian Strengthens to Cat. 5 Near Great Abaco

Hurricane Dorian strengthened to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale near Great Abaco Island on Sunday morning.  At 9:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 76.5°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) east of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas and about 225 miles (360 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Andros Island.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane found that Hurricane Dorian had strengthened to Category 5 on Sunday morning.  Dorian exhibited the structure of a classic intense hurricane.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Hurricane Dorian were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles from the center of Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 110 miles (180 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 40.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 52.1.  Hurricane Dorian was very similar in size and strengthen to what Hurricane Michael was when Michael hit northwest Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Dorian will remain in an environment very favorable for intense hurricanes during the next several days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dorian is likely to remain a very strong hurricane for several more days.  At some point a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  When that happens, an eyewall replacement cycle will cause fluctuations in the intensity of Dorian.

Hurricane Dorian will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west on Sunday.  Hurricane Dorian could slow on Sunday night when it nears the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will move over the Abacos and New Providence on Sunday.  Dorian is capable of causing catastrophic damage over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas.  It could generate a storm surge of 15 feet (4.5 meters) where the strongest winds push water toward the coastline.  Hurricane Dorian could eventually approach the coast of southeast Florida as a very strong hurricane.

Dangerous Hurricane Dorian Nears Northwestern Bahamas

Dangerous Hurricane Dorian neared the Northwestern Bahamas on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Great Abaco and about 310 miles (500 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h)  and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Andros Island.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.

Hurricane Dorian remains a very dangerous, well organized storm.  Dorian has maintained Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for 24 hours.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was clearly visible on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The maximum sustained wind speed at the surface was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and data from dropsondes indicated that the wind was stronger a few hundred feet above the surface.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 105 miles (170 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.7and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.0.  Hurricane Dorian is capable of causing regional significant damage.

Hurricane Dorian will remain in an environment capable of supporting a very strong hurricane for several more days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There will be a potential for Hurricane Dorian to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At some point eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause fluctuations in intensity.

Hurricane Dorian will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The high will steer Dorian slowly toward the west.  Hurricane Dorian could move very slowly when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  Eventually, Dorian will turn toward the north when it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will reach the Northwestern Bahamas by Sunday evening.  The core of Dorian will move very close to the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  Hurricane Dorian could cause significant wind damage.  Dorian could also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) in places where the wind blows water toward the shoreline.

Tropical Storm Dorian Strengthens, Hurricane Warnings for Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened on Wednesday morning and it was on the verge of becoming a hurricane.  Hurricane Warnings were issued for Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 64.5°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of St. Croix.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch was in effect for Puerto Rico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian exhibited much greater organization on Wednesday morning.  A ring of strong thunderstorms wrapped almost completely around the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dorian.  Storms near near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and northeast of the tropical storm.  The circulation also increased in size on Wednesday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move northeast of an upper level low during the next 24 hours.  The low will produce some southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the winds will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The wind shear will decrease on Friday and Dorian could strengthen into a major hurricane near the Bahamas.

The upper level low will help to steer Tropical Storm Dorian toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  A ridge of high pressure will build north of Dorian on Friday.  The ridge will block Dorian from moving north and it will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian will pass over the Virgin Islands near the eastern end of Puerto Rico today.  Dorian will be near the northern Bahamas on Saturday and it could approach the east coast of Florida by Sunday night.  Dorian could be a major hurricane when it approaches the east coast of the U.S.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Erin weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 72.8°W which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Dorian Moves Toward Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Dorian moved toward Puerto Rico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 63.0°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) east-southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for Puerto Rico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata.

The original low level center of Tropical Storm Dorian passed south of Barbados and St. Lucia on Tuesday morning.  Dorian dropped heavy rain and there were reports of flash floods on Martinique.  The original center weakened on Tuesday afternoon and a new low level center formed about 60 miles farther to the north.  The formation of a new center of circulation caused the forecast future track of Tropical Storm Dorian to be shifted northward as well.

Even with the formation of a new center of circulation, the overall circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian did not change much on Tuesday.  The circulation around Dorian remained small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the new low level center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the center of Tropical Storm Dorian.  Storms near the center were producing upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level low northwest of Puerto Rico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  A large mass of drier air is north of Tropical Storm Dorian and the drier air could also inhibit intensification if it gets pulled into the circulation around Dorian.  The small size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian means that it could weaken or strengthen quickly if the environmental conditions change significantly.  Dorian is likely to weaken when it crosses Puerto Rico on Wednesday night.

The upper low northwest of Puerto Rico will help to steer Tropical Storm Dorian toward the northwest on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could reach Puerto Rico by Wednesday evening.  Dorian will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain on Puerto Rico.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  A high pressure system will build north of Tropical Storm Dorian on Thursday and Friday.  The high will turn Dorian back toward the west-northwest.  Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 31.9°N and longitude 72.1°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to move northeast toward Nova Scotia.

Tropical Depression Three Forms East of Florida

Tropical Depression Three formed east of Florida on Monday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system over the Northwestern Bahamas on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the system as Tropical Depression Three.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 78.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

More thunderstorms developed around the center of a small low pressure system that was embedded in the northern end of a tropical wave over the Bahamas on Monday.  Most of the thunderstorms were forming in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Based on data from satellites NHC determined that a closed circulation had formed at the surface.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  Storms in the eastern half of the depression were exhibiting upper level divergence to the north and east.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be in under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge could enhance upper level divergence on Tuesday.  The wind aloft will be relatively weak, although a thin upper trough near the east coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The surface pressure is relatively high and that could slow any intensification.  A larger upper level trough will develop over the eastern U.S. on Tuesday and the trough will produce stronger southwesterly winds.  Those winds will create much more shear on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Three will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  Tropical Depression Three is likely to more more toward the north later on Tuesday when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Three could be near the southeast coast of Florida in about 12 hours.  The center is not currently forecast to make landfall, but the depression could bring squally weather and an increased chance for rain to the southeast coast of the U.S. during the next several days.

Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall in Northwest Florida

Powerful Hurricane Michael made landfall in Northwest Florida Wednesday afternoon.  The center of Hurricane Michael officially made landfall between Panama City and Mexico Beach, Florida.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 85.5°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southeast of Panama City, Florida.  Michael was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

Hurricane Michael intensified rapidly right up to landfall on the Gulf Coast.  The minimum surface pressure decreased from 933 mb to 919 mb in the six hours prior to landfall.  With a maximum sustained wind speed of 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) Hurricane Michael was at the top end of Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Michael is the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on that portion of the Gulf Coast and it was one of the most intense hurricanes to make landfall anywhere along the coast of the U.S. during the month of October.

Even though Hurricane Michael is moving inland, a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Atlantic Coast from Fernandina Beach, Florida to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Michael at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.4.  Hurricane Michael will cause regional significant damage.

Tyndall Air Force Base reported a wind gust of 119 m.p.h. (191 km/h).  The Florida State University Panama City Campus reported a wind gust of 116 m.p.h. (187 km/h).   The Panama City Treatment Plant reported a wind gust of 94 m.p.h. (151 km/h).

The coast along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges.  The winds were pushing water toward the coast in the eastern half of the circulation of Hurricane Michael.  Some locations could have a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters).  There have already been reports of damage due to storm surge.

An upper level trough will steer Hurricane Michael toward the northeast.  Michael will weaken as it moves inland, but it will carry hurricane force winds over northeastern Florida, extreme southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia.  The center of Hurricane Michael will pass between Dothan, Alabama and Tallahasse, Florida.  it will move toward Albany, Georgia and then pass south of Macon, Georgia.  Michael will move across South Carolina and North Carolina as a tropical storm before exiting the U.S. near Norfolk, Virginia.

Hurricane Michael will cause widespread power outages and numerous outages are already occurring in northwest Florida.  Michael will also produce locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur as it moves inland.  Wind and rain will disrupt efforts in South Carolina and North Carolina to recover from the effects of Hurricane Florence.

One of the most unusual aspects of Hurricane Michael was that it intensified rapidly right up until it made landfall in northwest Florida.  In the past most major hurricanes weakened while they approached the coast along the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Those hurricanes encountered drier air and more vertical wind shear and they weakened.  The Sea Surface Temperatures in the northern Gulf of Mexico is 2°C to 3°C warmer than normal and that may have contributed to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael before landfall.  Hurricane Camille in 1969 also intensified right up until it made landfall in Mississippi.  However, Camille occurred in August, while Hurricane Michael occurred in October.

Powerful Hurricane Michael Nearing North Florida

Powerful hurricane Michael was nearing north Florida on Wednesday morning.  Michael intensified rapidly to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the overnight hours.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 86.3°W which put it about 90 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida.  Michael was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Alabama-Mississippi border and from Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Atlantic Coast from Fernandina Beach, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Mouth of the Pearl River and from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

Hurricane Michael intensified rapidly during the past 12 hours.  An eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Hurricane Michael are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly to 933 mb.

Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) from the center of Hurricane Michael.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 185 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Michael is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.0.  Hurricane Michael is capable of causing regional significant damage.

Hurricane Michael is stronger than any other hurricane to hit north Florida in the historical record.  Michael is similar in intensity to what Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.  Hurricane Michael is bigger than Charley was in 2004.

An upper level trough over the Central U.S. and a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean are combining to steer Hurricane Michael toward the north.  The trough will turn Michael toward the northeast when it reaches the coast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Michael will make landfall near Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida in about six hours.

Hurricane Michael will bring destructive winds to the coast of north Florida.  The strongest winds will be near the center and east of the center.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) will occur east of where the center of Michael makes landfall.  The coast of the northeast Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges and significant damage will occur.

The center of Hurricane Michael will move between Dothan, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida.  It will pass near Albany, Georgia and then move south of Macon, Georgia.  The center of Michael could move near Columbia, South Carolina and then it could exit the East Coast of the U.S. near Norfolk, Virginia.

Michael will bring hurricane force winds to northeast Florida, extreme southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.  There will be widespread power outages.  Winds to tropical storm force will occur in South Carolina and North Carolina.  Hurricane Michael will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland.  The wind and rain will disrupt efforts to recover from the effects of Hurricane Florence in South Carolina and North Carolina.

Michael Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a major hurricane on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 86.4°W which put it about 290 miles (470 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  Michael was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwanee River, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Alabama-Mississippi border, from Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka, Florida and from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina on the Atlantic Coast.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Mouth of the Pearl River, from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida and from South Santee, River South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The inner core of Hurricane Michael tightened on Tuesday afternoon.  The diameter of the eye decreased from 30 miles (50 km) to 22 miles (35 km).  The ring of thunderstorms around the eye tightened around the smaller eye and the strongest winds were closer to the center of circulation.  Storms around the core of Michael were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease from 965 mb to 957 mb during the past six hours.

Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Michael.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Michael is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.7.  Hurricane Michael is capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Michael will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  Michael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough over the Central U.S. is producing westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of Hurricane Michael, but those winds are not causing enough vertical wind shear to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Michael could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Michael is moving between a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the upper level trough over the Central U.S.  Those two weather systems are steering Michael toward the north and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Michael will make landfall near Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida early on Wednesday afternoon.  The upper level trough will steer Michael more toward the northeast after it makes landfall.  The center of Michael is likely to move between Dothan, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida and it could pass near Albany, Georgia.

Hurricane Michael will bring strong winds to northwest Florida, extreme southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.  There will be wind damage and widespread power outages could occur.  The coast of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges.  Hurricane Michael will produce a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) at some points along the coast.  Michael will drop locally heavy rain.  Although Hurricane Michael will weaken when it moves inland, it will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to South Carolina and North Carolina.  Hurricane Michael will hinder efforts in those states to recover from the effects of Hurricane Florence.