Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Hurricane Humberto Strengthens to a Major Hurricane, Warning for Bermuda

Hurricane Humberto strengthened into a major hurricane on Tuesday and a Hurricane Warning was issued for Bermuda.  At 11:00 pm. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 71.0°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) west of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Hurricane Humberto exhibited the structure of a large mature hurricane on Tuesday night.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Humberto.  The stronger rainbands were occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  Humberto appeared to be drawing drier air around the southern half of the circulation and bands in that part of the hurricane consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Humberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Humberto was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.5.  Hurricane Humberto was capable of causing major wind damage.

Hurricane Humberto will remain in an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane for another 12 to 24 hours.  Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the hurricane.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to cause Hurricane Humberto to weaken on Wednesday.

Hurricane Humberto will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high and the upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  will combine to steer Humberto toward the east-northeast on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Humberto could approach Bermuda on Wednesday evening.  Humberto could still be a major hurricane at that time.  If the center of Hurricane Humberto passes just north of Bermuda, then the strongest winds could affect Bermuda.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Imelda was dropping heavy rain near Houston, Texas and Tropical Depression Ten was churning toward the northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) northwest of Houston, Texas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there  were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 46.7°W which put it about 1030 miles (1660 km) east of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Imelda Forms Along Upper Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Imelda formed along the Upper Texas coast on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it near Freeport, Texas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent to Port Bolivar, Texas.

A small low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico exhibited greater organization on satellite and radar images on Tuesday.  When a surface weather station reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h), the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Imelda.  The winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move around the western end of a warm high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high will steer Imelda slowly toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Imelda will move slowly inland over east Texas.  Although Imelda will cause a small storm surge along the coast around the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, locally heavy rain will pose a much greater risk.  Southeasterly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Imelda will transport very moist air over parts of eastern Texas.  Over a foot of rain (0.33 meters) could fall in some locations where rain bands linger.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for a number of counties around Houston and Galveston.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto moved closer to Bermuda and Tropical Depression Ten formed east of the Lesser Antilles.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 72.9°W which put it about 490 miles (785 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning were in effect for Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 44.9°W which put it about 1165 miles (1870 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  The depression is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves toward the northern Leeward Islands.

Humberto Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Humberto strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 77.6°W which put it about 785 miles (1260 km) west of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Humberto strengthened steadily on Sunday and the circulation exhibited greater organization.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be developing.  There was a broken ring of thunderstorms around the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Humberto.  There were more rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) on the eastern side of Humberto and out about 70 miles (110 km) on the western side.

Hurricane Humberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two to three days.  Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Am upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  However, the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Humberto will intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Hurricane Humberto moved around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  Humberto will move slowly toward the northeast on Monday.  The upper level trough and the subtropical high will combine to steer Humberto toward the east during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Humberto could approach Bermuda by late on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Humberto Develops East of the Bahamas

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto east of the Bahamas on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday night the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 75.2°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Great Abaco, Bahamas.  Humberto was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.

A NOAA research aircraft flying through former Tropical Depression Nine on Friday night determined that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto.  The aircraft reported that the maximum sustained wind speed had increased to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The circulation around Tropical Storm Humberto was still poorly organized.  A few thunderstorms developed just to the north of the center of circulation.  A band of showers and thunderstorms curved around the eastern side of the circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Humberto consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Humberto will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.   A large upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  The upper low is forecast to move westward away from Humberto and the wind shear could decrease during the weekend. Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to slowly become more organized and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico will help to steer Tropical Storm Humberto toward the northwest during the next day or two.  A strong upper level trough over the Great Lakes will start to turn Humberto toward the east later in the weekend.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Humberto could move near the Northwestern Bahamas.  If Humberto brings wind and rain to that region, it will hinder efforts to recover from Hurricane Dorian.

Tropical Depression Nine Develops Near the Bahamas

Tropical Depression Nine developed near the Bahamas on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east-southeast of Great Abaco, Bahamas.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was able to identify a low level center of circulation in a tropical disturbance near the Bahamas on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nine.  The center of circulation developed on the southwestern side of a cluster of thunderstorms just east of the Bahamas.  The circulation around the depression was still in the early stages of organization.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern half of the tropical depression.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Nine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few days.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  A large upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  The upper low is forecast to move westward away from the  tropical depression and the wind shear could decrease during the weekend.  Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to slowly become more organized and it could strengthen into a tropical storm.

The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico will help to steer Tropical Depression Nine toward the northwest during the next day or two.  A strong upper level trough over the Great Lakes will start to turn the depression toward the east later in the weekend.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could move near the Northwestern Bahamas.  If Tropical Depression Nine brings wind and rain to that region, it will hinder efforts to recover from Hurricane Dorian.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Northwestern Bahamas

The government of the Bahamas issued Tropical Storm Warnings for the Northwestern Bahamas on Friday afternoon.  Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A tropical disturbance over the Southeastern Bahamas was forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm, which prompted the issuance of the Tropical Storm Warnings.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on the disturbance at 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday and NHC designated the system at Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the broad center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 74.8°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) southeast of Great Abaco.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was very poorly organized.  There was a very broad center around which the air was turning cyclonically.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane was finding weak winds near the broad center.  Most of the strong thunderstorms were northeast of the broad center of the disturbance.  The stronger winds here occurring near those thunderstorms.  There did not appear to be any significant banding of the showers and thunderstorms.

A large upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico was producing moderate southerly winds which were blowing across the western side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  A small upper level ridge was developing between the upper low over the Gulf and another smaller upper low near Bermuda.  Winds were weaker under the ridge and that was the likely reason the stronger thunderstorms were in the northeastern part of the disturbance.  It is possible that a new center of circulation could develop near one of the clusters of thunderstorms.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an area somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move westward which would cause the vertical wind shear to decrease.  If the shear decreases, then a distinct low level center of circulation could develop.  If a distinct center forms, then the system would be designated as a tropical depression.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The future track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will depend on the place where a center of circulation forms and how strong the system becomes.  A stronger tropical cyclone would be steered by winds higher in the atmosphere.  If Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine strengthens significantly then the upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico and the developing upper level ridge will combine to the system toward the northwest during the next day or two.  A cold front moving southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley could turn the system toward the northeast later in the weekend.  Under that scenario Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine would move across the Northwestern Bahamas on Friday.  It could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.

On the other hand, if Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine does not develop, or if it remains a weak tropical cyclone, then it would be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere.  In that case the system could be steered more toward the west-northwest and it could move across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.   The guidance from numerical models is very divergent about the predicted future track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  In any case the system will bring some wind and rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and that will hinder efforts to recover from Hurricane Dorian.

Tropical Disturbance Brings Rain to Southeastern Bahamas

A tropical disturbance brought rain to the Southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.  The disturbance was also designated at Invest 95L.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the tropical disturbance was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 74.0°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southeast of Acklins Island, Bahamas.  The disturbance was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

The circulation around the tropical disturbance was not well organized on Wednesday.  There were indications of cyclonic turning in the wind flow, but there were no reports of westerly winds at the surface.  The lack of westerly winds indicated that there probably was not a defined center of circulation at the surface.  There were some thunderstorms near the apparent middle of the tropical disturbance.  There was a larger cluster of thunderstorms east of the middle of the disturbance and a second cluster of thunderstorms northeast of the middle of the disturbance.

The tropical disturbance will be in an environment marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone.  The disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  A large upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing southerly winds which are blowing over the western half of the disturbance.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear.  There is another, smaller upper level low near Bermuda.  An small upper level ridge is developing between the two upper lows.  The winds are weaker in the ridge which is over the eastern half of the tropical disturbance.  It is possible that a center of circulation could develop in one of the clusters of thunderstorms east and northeast of the middle of the disturbance.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 50% probability of development of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and a 70% during the next five days.

The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico and the developing upper ridge are likely to combine to steer the disturbance toward the northwest during the next few days.  It is difficult to anticipate the  track until a distinct center of rotation forms.  If the center reforms east or northeast of the current middle of the disturbance, then that would affect the future track.  On the most probable track the disturbance would move across the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next several days.  It could approach southeast Florida or the Florida Keys on Friday night.  The disturbance could move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  If the disturbance brings any significant rain to the northern Bahamas, that would hamper efforts to recover from the catastrophic damage caused by Hurricane Dorian.

Hurricane Dorian Brings Powerful Winds to Nova Scotia

Hurricane Dorian brought powerful winds to Nova Scotia on Saturday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 45.0°N and longitude 67.9°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia.  Dorian was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Lower East Pubnico to Brule, Nova Scotia and from Indian Harbour to Hawke’s Bay, Newfoundland. Hurricane Watches were in effect for Prince Edward Island and for the Magdalen Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Prince Edward Island and from Avonport to Lower East Pubnico, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Indian Harbour to Stone’s Cove, Newfoundland. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the portions of the coast from Hawke’s Bay to Fogo Island and from Mutton Bay to Mary’s Harbour.

Hurricane Dorian maintained its intensity and increased in size on Saturday while it sped across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean to the Canadian Maritime provinces.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) on the southern side of Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 300 miles (480 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.8.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

There were reports of wind damage and widespread power outages around Nova Scotia even before the center of Hurricane reached that area.  The large circulation around Dorian brought tropical storm force winds to Nova Scotia a few hours before the center made landfall.  The center of Hurricane Dorian officially made landfall south of Halifax, Nova Scotia on Saturday evening.

Hurricane Dorian had almost completed a transition to a large powerful extratropical cyclone.  That transition contributed to the increase in size of the circulation.  The strongest part of Hurricane Dorian will move across Nova Scotia during the next few hours.  The winds are likely to cause additional damage on Saturday night.  Hurricane Dorian will race across Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island and New Brunswick on Saturday night.  Dorian will move over Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador on Sunday.  Hurricane Dorian has the potential to cause serious damage in all of those locations.

Hurricane Dorian Makes Landfall at Cape Hatteras, Threatens Canadian Maritimes

Hurricane Dorian made an official landfall at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Friday morning and posed a serious threat to the Canadian Maritime provinces.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 36.9°N and longitude 72.7°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts.  Dorian was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surace pressure was 958 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, Delaware, and for Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bar Harbor to Eastport, Maine.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect from Hubbards to Avonport, Nova Scotia.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for Prince Edward Island, Avonport to Hubbards, Nova Scotia, the Magdalen Islands, Parson’s Pond to Indian Harbour, Newfoundland.  Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Prince Edward Island and from Avonport to Hubbards, Nova Scotia.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Newfoundland from Francois to Boat Harbor.  A Tropical Storm Watch was  issued for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Triton, and from Indian Harbour to Stone’s Cove, Newfoundland.

The National Hurricane Center determined that the center of Hurricane Dorian passed over Cape Hatteras and identified that as the point of landfall.  Hurricane Dorian has been moving rapidly away from the coast since that time.  Hurricane Dorian remained a large, well organized hurricane.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was apparent on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.2.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday.  Dorian will start out over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  Dorian will move over cooler water later on Saturday.  An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will contribute to upper level divergence, which may pump out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Hurricane Dorian will start to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone later on Saturday.  The interaction of colder and warmer air could also provide additional energy to the transitioning hurricane.  There is a chance that Hurricane Dorian could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Dorian rapidly toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track, Dorian will pass southeast of Massachusetts on Saturday morning.  Hurricane Dorian could reach Nova Scotia by Saturday afternoon.  Dorian could be one of the strongest hurricanes to affect the Canadian Maritime provinces.  It will be capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Hurricane Dorian Brings Wind and Rain to the Carolinas

Hurricane Dorian brought wind and rain to the Carolinas on Thursday while the center move just off the coast.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 77.4°W which put it about 70 miles southwest of Cape Lookout, North Carolina.  Dorian was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point and for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for all of Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Prince Edward Island, for the Magdalen Islands and for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Newfoundland from Francois to Boat Harbor.

Hurricane Dorian weakened very slowly on Thursday while the center of circulation moved just off the coast.  The pressure remained nearly steady around 958 mb.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 220 miles (330 km) from the center.

The core of Hurricane Dorian with the strongest winds remained over the Atlantic Ocean.  Numerous location along the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina reported winds to topical storm force.  Rainbands rotating around the northern half of Dorian dropped locally heavy rain over coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina.  Thunderstorms in some of the bands generated tornadoes and there were scattered reports of wind damage.  Hurricane Dorian caused a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.3 to 2.3 meters) along the coast.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. began to steer Hurricane Dorian toward the northeast.  Dorian began to move faster later on Thursday.  The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Dorian rapidly toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Dorian will bring wind and rain to eastern North Carolina on Friday.  Dorian will also cause a storm surge along the coast.  Hurricane Dorian will pass southeast of New England on Friday night.  Dorian will bring wind and rain to the Canadian Maritime provinces and Newfoundland during the weekend.