Monthly Archives: September 2020

Tropical Storm Beta Strengthens, Hurricane Watch Issued for Texas

Tropical Storm Beta strengthened on Friday night and a Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the Texas coast.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 92.3°W which put it about 305 miles (495 km) east of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  Beta was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to High Island, Texas.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Aransas, Texas and from High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Although Tropical Storm Beta looked like a highly sheared tropical cyclone on infrared satellite images, a reconnaissance plane found on Friday night that it had strengthened.  Even though the wind speeds were stronger and the surface pressure had decreased, the circulation was still asymmetrical.  An upper level trough over Texas was producing south-southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Beta.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Because of the wind shear, the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Beta.  Bands in the southern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Beta.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northwestern quadrant and out only 50 miles (80 km) in the southern half of the circulation.  The pressure difference between a large high pressure system over the eastern U.S. and the low pressure at the center of Beta was contributing to the strong winds on the northeastern side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Beta will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Beta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level trough over Texas will weaken and gradually move away from Tropical Storm Beta.  When the trough moves away from Beta, the wind shear will decrease and Beta will be able to intensify more easily.  Tropical Storm Beta could intensify into a hurricane in during the weekend.

The steering pattern around Tropical Storm Beta will be complex.  The upper level trough over Texas is likely to steer Beta toward the north during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Then a large cool high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will block Tropical Storm Beta from moving any farther to the north.  The high will steer Beta to the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beta could approach the coast of Texas by the end of the weekend.  Beta could move more toward the northeast when the high pressure system starts to shift toward the east early next week.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy continued to move toward Bermuda.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 57.4°W which put it about 730 miles (1170 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

TD 22 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Beta

Former Tropical Depression Twentytwo strengthened into Tropical Storm Beta over the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropcial Storm Beta was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 93.1°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) east-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  Beta was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Beta strengthened on Friday, the circulation was asymmetrical.  An upper level trough over Texas was producing south-southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Beta.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Because of the wind shear, the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Beta.  Bands in the southern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the northern side of Beta.  Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Beta will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Beta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level trough over Texas will weaken and gradually move away from Tropical Storm Beta.  When the trough moves away from Beta, the wind shear will decrease and Beta will be able to intensify more easily.  There is a chance Tropical Storm Beta could intensify into a hurricane in two or three days.

The steering pattern around Tropical Storm Beta will be complex.  The upper level trough over Texas is likely to steer Beta toward the north during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Then a large cool high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  will block Tropical Storm Beta from moving any farther to the north.  The high will steer Beta to the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beta could approach the coast of Texas by the end of the weekend.  Beta could move more toward the northeast when the high pressure system starts to shift toward the east early next week.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy continued to move toward Bermuda, Subtropical Storm Alpha made landfall in Portugal and Tropical Storm Wilfred developed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 57.0°W which put it about 795 miles (1275 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Bermuda.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Subtropical Storm Alpha was located at latitude 40.8°N and longitude 8.4°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Lisbon, Portugal.  Alpha was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 34.4°W which put it about 735 miles (1185 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Wilfred was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb

TD 22 Forms over Western Gulf of Mexico, Teddy at Cat. 4

Tropical Depression Twentytwo formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday evening and Hurricane Teddy intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Twentytwo was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 94.2°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east of Tampico, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane determined that a low level center of circulation was present in a low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday evening and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twentytwo.  The circulation around the depression was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentytwo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low near the Rio Grande Valley will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but the depression is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Twentytwo will be in an area where the steering currents are weak.  The upper low over the Rio Grande Valley could pull the depression toward the north, but the depression could meander over the western Gulf of Mexico for several days.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale southeast of Bermuda on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 54.7°W which put it about 1005 miles (1615 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Teddy could be near Bermuda by Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Noul Brings Wind and Rain to Central Vietnam

Tropical Storm Noul brought wind and rain to central Vietnam on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 107.2°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) north-northwest of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Noul was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms and rain around Tropical Storm Noul was asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms and the heaviest rain were on the western side of Noul.  Tropical Storm Noul was moving under the southern part of a large upper level ridge over Asia and the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge was producing strong easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Noul.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of rainfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Storm Noul quickly toward the west.  Noul will across central Vietnam and southern Laos on Friday.  Tropical Storm Noul will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Vietnam, southern Laos and northeastern Thailand.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Tropical Storm Noul Moves Toward Vietnam

Tropical Storm Noul moved toward Vietnam on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 113.8°E which put it about 420 miles (675 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Noul was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Noul moved under the southern portion of a large upper level ridge over Asia and the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge produced strong easterly winds which blew toward the top of Noul’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and they contributed to an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Noul.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the western half of Noul.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Noul could strengthen if the wind shear decreases.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Storm Noul toward the west-north west during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track Noul will approach the coast of central Vietnam in about 24 hours.  Tropical Storm Noul will bring gusty winds and rain to central Vietnam on Friday.

Tropical Storm Sally Drops Heavy Rain on Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Sally dropped heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located at latitude 31.2°N and longitude 86.8°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west of Dothan, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida.

The winds to tropical storm force were occurring in bands over the Gulf of Mexico in the southern part of Tropical Storm Sally.  Most of the winds over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Hurricane Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday morning as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A NOAA C-MAN station at Ft. Morgan, Alabama measured a sustained wind speed 98 m.p.h. (158 km/h) and a peak wind gust of 121 m.p.h. (195 km/h) when the western eyewall passed over it.  Another weather station at Bon Secour, Alabama measured a sustained wind speed of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h).  There were reports of widespread power outages in Alabama.  The Pensacola Naval Air Station reported a wind gust of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h).

The wind pushed the water toward the coast and there was a storm surge over the barrier sialnds and along the coast of Alabama and northwest Florida.  Since the eye of Sally passed east of Mobile, Alabama, northerly winds pushed the water out of Mobile Bay and the water level dropped several feet.  Heavy rain fell north and east of the center of Sally and creeks an rivers were rising quickly in parts of southern Alabama and northwestern Florida.

Tropical Storm Sally will move northeast across Southeast Alabama on Wednesday night.  Sally will be over Georgia on Thursday and it will be over South Carolina on Thursday night.  Tropical Storm Sally will continue to drop heavy rain over those areas and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of northwestern Florida, southern Alabama, Georgia, western North Carolina and western South Carolina.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy was on a track that could take it near Bermuda in a few days.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 50.8°W which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Hurricane Sally Makes Landfall Near Gulf Shores

The center of Hurricane Sally officially made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday morning.  At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Sally was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 87.7°W which put it near Gulf Shores, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure as 965 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Sally strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday night as it ground its way slowly toward the Gulf Coast.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Sally.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Sally was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.  Hurricane Sally was capable of causing regional serious damage.  The winds were pushing water toward the coast and a storm surge of 9 to 12 feet (3 to 4 meters) was possible.

Hurricane Sally will move slowly northeast across Northwest Florida and Southeast Alabama.  Sally will slowly weaken as it moves inland, but it will cause widespread power outages in those areas.  Since Hurricane Sally will move slowly, it will drop heavy rain.  Flash Flood Watches extend from the Gulf Coast to Georgia and North Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Teddy rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane, Hurricane Paulette passes south of Newfoundland and Tropical Storm Vicky moved farther away from the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 49.0°W which put it about 820 miles (1315 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 41.9°N and longitude 49.1°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Paulette was moving toward the east-northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 33.9°W which put the center about 755 miles (1215 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were ind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Sally Continues to Grind Slowly Toward Mobile

Hurricane Sally continued to grind its way slowly north toward Mobile on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Sally located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south of Mobile, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Navarre, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi and from Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Sally did not change a lot on Tuesday.  A ragged eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Sally.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Sally.  The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of the hurricane.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Hurricane Sally was moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The steering winds around Sally were weak, but they were pushing the hurricane slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sally will make landfall near Mobile Bay on Wednesday morning.  Any small wobble to the left or to the right could affect the place of landfall.  An upper level trough over the western U.S. will move east during the next couple of days.  The trough will turn Sally more toward the east after it moves inland.

The intensity of Hurricane Sally may not change much in the 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  However, the circulation will pull drier air into the southern part of the hurricane.  In addition, the eastern edge of the approaching upper level trough will produce some vertical wind shear.  The positive impact of warm water will be balanced by the negative impacts of drier air and slight shear.  So, the environment is likely to be neutral for intensification.  Hurricane Sally will start to weaken after the center moves inland.

Hurricane Sally was already producing water rises along the Central Gulf Coast.  A storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) could occur near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Sally will cause mostly minor wind damage.  A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread power outages over southwestern Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Since Hurricane Sally will be moving slowly, it will drop heavy rain over southern Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Flash flooding will be likely in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Paulette continued to speed away from Bermuda, Tropical Storm Teddy was well on its way to becoming a hurricane and Tropical Storm Vicky was weakening over the eastern Atlantic.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 39.5°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the east-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 47.9°W which put it about 895 miles (1440 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 32.1°W which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Noul Forms West of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Noul formed over the South China Sea west of the Philippines on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 118.0°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Noul was still organizing on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Noul.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge over the South China Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Noul.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they will not be strong enough to prevent Noul from intensifying.  Tropical Storm Noul could strengthen into a typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Noul will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Noul toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Noul could approach the coast of Vietnam in about 60 hours.  It is likely to be a typhoon when it nears Vietnam.

Hurricane Sally Grinds Slowly Toward the Gulf Coast

Hurricane Sally ground its way slowly toward the Gulf Coast on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Sally was located at latitude 28.9°N and longitude 87.6°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Sally was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Navarre,, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Morgan City, to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida.

After intensifying rapidly earlier on Monday, Hurricane Sally exhibited a more steady state on Monday evening.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 16 miles (26 km) at the center of Sally.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  There was a break in the south side of the ring.  The circulation of Hurricane Sally pulled some drier air around the southern side of the core.  The drier air may have contributed to the break in the eyewall.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north and the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Sally was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation in the northeastern quadrant of Sally.  Elsewhere, hurricane force winds were occurring mainly in the eyewall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles from the center of circulation.  The winds were weakest in the southwestern quadrant of the hurricane.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Sally was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Sally was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Sally will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Two other factors could inhibit further intensification of Hurricane Sally.  The drier air in the southern part of the circulation could limit the development of thunderstorms in that part of Sally.  The fact that Hurricane Sally is moving slowly means that it could mix cooler water to the surface which might reduce the energy available to drive the hurricane.  Even with the two inhibiting factors, Sally could intensify again on Tuesday.

Hurricane Sally will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak in that region and Sally will move slowly.  The slow movement of Hurricane Sally near the Gulf Coast means that any slight wobbles could affect the location of landfall.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sally could approach the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday night.  A wobble to the left could bring Sally ashore in southeastern Louisiana while a wobble to the right would bring it closer to Northwest Florida.

Hurricane Sally will bring strong winds to the coast of Mississippi and Alabama.  Where the winds blow water toward the coast, Hurricane Sally could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (4 meters).  Hurricane Sally could drop nearly a foot (0.3 m) of rain on parts of southern Mississippi and Alabama.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Paulette was speeding away from Bermuda, and Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky organized over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 35.7°N and longitude 62.3°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) north-northeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 45.0°W which put it about 1100 miles (1770 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 29.9°W which put it about 455 miles (735 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the mprthwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.