Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Stalls West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy stalled west of Madagascar on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 42.6°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy gradually strengthened on Monday while it was stalled west of Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Freddy’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 24 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar on Tuesday. Freddy could approach the coast of Mozambique by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Brings Wind and Rain to Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night, when the center of Freddy stalled just off the coast. An upper level trough over southern Africa was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was affecting both the vertical and the horizontal structure of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The wind shear was causing the vertical structure of Freddy to tilt to the southeast with height. So, the center of circulation in the middle troposphere was southeast of the center near the surface. The wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetric. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Bands in the western side of Freddy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy’s circulation is likely to meander just west of the coast of southwest Madagascar on Monday. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to drop heavy rain over southwest Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to push Freddy back toward the northwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mozambique by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level trough over southern Africa will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds will be weaker when Freddy moves northwest later this week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is forecast to intensify when the wind shear decreases. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Redevelops over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy redeveloped over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 39.8°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

After meandering over Mozambique for a week, the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Freddy emerged over the Mozambique Channel. More thunderstorms began to form once Freddy’s circulation moved back over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened back to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Freddy. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were forming in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move over the southern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce westerly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent Freddy from getting stronger. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the southwest Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move closer to southern Madagascar during the weekend. A second high pressure system south of Madagascar will block Freddy before the center gets to Madagascar. The second high pressure system will push Tropical Cyclone Freddy back toward Mozambique during the early part of next week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Causes Wind and Rain in Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy caused wind and rain in Madagascar on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 21.3°S and longitude 46.0°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Mandabe, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy produced strong winds and locally heavy rain over the central and southern parts of Madagascar on Tuesday night. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy remained well organized, even though Freddy had been over Madagascar for about 12 hours. Thunderstorms in well defined bands caused strong winds and dropped locally heavy rain. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move toward the west during the next several days. The center of Freddy’s circulation will reach the west coast of Madagascar near Morombe in 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to cause strong winds and locally heavy rain over Madagascar on Wednesday. Freddy will continue to weaken while the center of circulation is over land. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move westward across the Mozambique Channel. Freddy could strengthen again once the center is over the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach the south coast of Mozambique in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 20.9°S and longitude 48.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Mananjary, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit the east coast of Madagascar between Nosy Varika and Mananjary on Tuesday. A small eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) was at the center of Freddy’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.5. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally, when Sally hit the south coast of Alabama in 2020. Freddy was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move west-southwest across Madagascar during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy will pass near Fianarantsoa in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong gusty winds to central and southern Madagascar. Freddy will be capable of causing major wind damage. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will also drop locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will weaken steadily as it moves across Madagascar. The center of Freddy’s circulation will move over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could strengthen again when it moves over the Mozambique Channel. Freddy could approach the coast of southern Mozambique later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Mauritius on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 56.0°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Mauritius on Monday morning. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Mauritius. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was stronger than Hurricane Harvey was, when Harvey hit the coast of Texas in 2017. Freddy was similar in size to Harvey. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. Concentric eyewalls would cause an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of La Reunion later today. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the east coast of Madagascar in 24 hours. Freddy is likely to still be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes North of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 63.2°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) north of Rodrigues. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation brought gusty winds and rain to Rodrigues. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.6. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida, when Ida hit the coast of Louisiana in 2021. Freddy was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. Concentric eyewalls would likely cause an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of Mauritius in less than 24 hours. Freddy will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues until it moves farther away. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will also affect Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves East-Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved east-northeast of Rodrigues on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 68.8°E which put it about 430 miles (690 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Freddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane. The circulation around Freddy was very close to being in equilibrium with the environment around it. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey, when Harvey hit the coast of Texas in 2017. Freddy was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy has a structure similar to an annular hurricane. Tropical cyclones with a structure like an annular hurricane tend to maintain nearly a steady intensity.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of Rodrigues in 24 hours. Freddy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar. Freddy could be north of Mauritius in 48 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) south of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane as it passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.8.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be northeast of Rodrigues in 48 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mauritius in 72 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Still Moving West

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still moving westward over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 78.8°E which put it about 720 miles (1165 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to move toward the west over the South Indian Ocean. A smallcircular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 30.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.6.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small inner core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be northeast of Rodrigues in three days. Freddy could approach Mauritius in four days and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 31.5°S and longitude 67.7°E which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.