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Hurricane Franklin Brings Wind and Heavy Rain to Mexico

Hurricane Franklin brought gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Mexico when it made landfall on Wednesday night.  The center of Hurricane Franklin made landfall between Veracruz and Nautla near the town of Lechuguillas, Mexico.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km) at the time of landfall, which made Franklin a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Franklin weakened to a tropical storm as it moved inland during the night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 98.3°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of the Mexico City, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Boca Partido, Mexico.

Franklin brought hurricane force winds to the portion of the coast north of Veracruz, Mexico.  Those winds pushed water toward the shore and created a storm surge along the coast.  The highest surge may have reached 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) near and just to the north of where the center made landfall.  Winds blowing up the slopes of mountains produced very heavy rain and flooding could be occurring in some locations.  The heavy rain will continue as Tropical Storm Franklin moves west across central Mexico.

Tropical Storm Franklin will continue to weaken as it moves across Mexico.  Heavy rain will continue to fall over portions of central Mexico and the potential for additional flooding exists.  The mountains are likely to disrupt the low level circulation.  However, the middle and upper portions of the circulation could remain intact.  Some models are forecasting that Franklin, or its remnants, could redevelop when it reaches the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.

Franklin Strengthens Into a Hurricane Northeast of Veracruz

Formerly Tropical Storm Franklin strengthened into a hurricane northeast of Veracruz on Friday afternoon.  Franklin is the first hurricane to form over the Atlantic basin in 2017.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 94.9°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Dos Bocas to Puerto de Veracruz and from Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo.

An elliptical eye formed at the center of Hurricane Franklin and a reconnaissance plane detected surface winds in excess of 74 m.p.h. (119 km/h).  Based on data from the plane and an improved appearance on satellite imagery, the National Hurricane Center upgrade Franklin to hurricane status in its 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory.

The structure of Hurricane Franklin improved on Friday.  An elliptical eye oriented north to south formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms completely surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of the ring of storms.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms coiled inward toward the core of Hurricane Franklin,  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Franklin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) on the northern side of Franklin and about 100 miles (160 km) on the southern side of the hurricane).

Hurricane Franklin could intensify further before it makes landfall.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over northern Mexico is generating northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, those winds are not very strong and the vertical wind shear is minor and it did not prevent Franklin from becoming a hurricane.  Hurricane Franklin has about another 6 to 12 hours to strengthen.  Once Franklin makes landfall and moves into the mountains, the surface circulation will weaken quickly.

A subtropical ridge is steering Hurricane Franklin toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  Hurricanes often turn slightly south of west when the approach the coast of the southwestern Bay of Campeche.  On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Franklin could make landfall on the coast of Mexico north of Veracruz in less than 12 hours.  The most likely landfall would be between Veracruz and Nautla.

Hurricane Franklin will bring strong gusty winds, a storm surge and heavy rain at the coast.  The storm surge could reach 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) near and just to the north of where the center makes landfall.  Franklin could produce very heavy rain when it reaches the mountains and flash flooding is a serious risk.

Tropical Storm Franklin Moves Over Bay of Campeche and Strengthens

Tropical Storm Franklin moved off the Yucatan peninsula over the Bay of Campeche and began to strengthen on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 91.3°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tuxpan to Rio Panuco.  A Tropical Storm Waring was in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Puerto de Veracruz and from Tuxpan to Rio Panuco.

Although Tropical Storm Franklin weakened as it moved across the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, its circulation maintained its structural integrity.  In fact, a tighter inner core developed at the center of the circulation while the tropical storm moved over land.  New thunderstorms began to form near the center of Tropical Storm Franklin as soon as the center moved back over water.  A primary band of thunderstorms began to wrap tightly around the eastern and northern sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form over the Bay of Campeche.  Thunderstorms in the core were generating upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Tropical Storm Franklin will move over an environment very favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Franklin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  An upper level trough over the Bahamas may enhance the upper divergence by creating an outflow channel to the east of Franklin.  Tropical Storm Franklin will intensify on Wednesday and there could be a period of rapid intensification.  Franklin is likely to become a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Franklin is being steered to the west by a subtropical high to its northeast.  A general westerly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Franklin will approach the coast of Mexico north of Veracruz on Wednesday night.  Franklin will bring gusty winds, heavy rain and a storm surge at the coast.  When Franklin moves inland the mountains will enhance the rising motion and very heavy rain could fall.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Franklin Makes Landfall on Yucatan

The center of Tropical Storm Franklin made landfall on the southeast coast of the Yucatan peninsula on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 87.3°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-northeast of Chetumal, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Sabancuy, Mexico and from Belize City northward to the Belize/Mexico border.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz, Mexico.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Franklin became better organized on Monday, but thunderstorms were unable to consolidate around the core of the circulation.  A ring of showers and weaker thunderstorms surrounds the center of circulation.  A band of stronger thunderstorms curls around the eastern side of the circulation.  The are weaker bands of showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  The thunderstorms in the eastern side of Franklin were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Franklin will weaken as it moves over the Yucatan peninsula.  Franklin will spend approximately 18 hours over land and it will be a weaker tropical storm or tropical depression by the time it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the southern Gulf of Mexico is near 30°C.  The upper level winds should be weak and there is likely to be little vertical wind shear when Franklin moves over the southern Gulf.  Franklin is likely to intensify when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

A subtropical high pressure system is steering Tropical Storm Franklin toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Franklin will move across the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday.  Franklin will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.  Floods could occur in some locations.

Tropical Storm Franklin Develops Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

A center of circulation developed in a system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven and the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Franklin on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 83.0°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Campeche, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City, Belize northward to the Belize/Mexico border.

Visible satellite images just before sunset suggested that a center of circulation had formed in the tropical wave previously designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven and the National Hurricane Center named it Tropical Storm Franklin.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Franklin is still not well organized.  The apparent center is located near the western edge of an area of thunderstorms.  Most of the thunderstorms are still forming east of the system, which indicates that vertical wind shear is probably still affecting the circulation.  The thunderstorms are producing some upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The environment ahead of Tropical Storm Franklin will become more favorable for intensification.  Franklin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough west of Franklin is producing westerly winds which are causing the vertical wind shear.  The trough is expected to weaken on Monday and when that happens the shear will diminish.  Warm water and less shear should allow Tropical Storm Franklin to strengthen before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula.  Franklin will weaken when it moves over land, but it is likely to re-intensify when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Franklin is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical high centered over the Atlantic Ocean.  A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Franklin could approach the Yucatan peninsula in about 24 hours.  Franklin will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to that area.  The heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Mexico Due to Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven

The National Hurricane Center changed the designation of Invest 90L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven because of the need to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Mexico.  At 5: 00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Campeche, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Belize City to the Belize/Mexico border.

A broad area of low pressure formed in a strong tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  There is not a well defined center of circulation within the broad area of low pressure.  Most of the thunderstorms are developing in the eastern half of the circulation.  There are few thunderstorms in the western half of the system.  The thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low are generating some upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the east of the low.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move through a relatively favorable environment over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  A small upper level trough to the west of the low is producing westerly winds which are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is probably the reason why most of the thunderstorms are in the eastern side of the circulation.  The upper trough is forecast to weaken and the shear is expected to diminish.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven could become a tropical storm over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, which is why the Tropical Storm Warning was issued.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is being steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical high pressure system centered over the Atlantic Ocean.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven could reach the Yucatan Peninsula within 36 hours.  It could bring gusty winds and heavy rain when it moves over the Yucatan.  The system could restrengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Large Hurricane Gaston Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Azores

Large Hurricane Gaston starting moving more quickly toward the northeast on Wednesday and it prompted a Tropical Storm Watch for some of the Azores.  The Tropical Storm Watch includes Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico Gracsiosa, Sao Jorge and Terceira in the Azores.

At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Gaston was located at latitude 35.6°N and longitude 46.5°W which put it about 1000 miles (1610 km) west of Faial in the Azores.  Gaston was  moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Hurricane Gaston has a large circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km).  The eye is surrounded by a nearly complete eyewall, although the eyewall is thinner in the southwestern quadrant.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 miles (70 km) from the center.  Hurricane Gaston has characteristics of an annular hurricane and the surrounding rainbands are mainly comprised of showers and shallow clouds.  The upper level divergence is inhibited over the southwestern past of the circulation, but divergence is still occurring north and east of the center.

Hurricane Gaston will be moving through an environment that will become increasingly unfavorable.  It is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 27.5°C, but it will be moving over cooler SST during the next few days.  An upper level trough is producing southwesterly winds which are causing vertical wind shear.  The strength of the upper level winds is expected to increase.  The combination of cooler SSTs and more wind shear will weaken Gaston during the next few days.

Hurricane Gaston is being steering toward the northeast by the westerly flow in the middle latitudes.  That general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Gaston could reach the western Azores within 48 hours.  It is expected to weaken below hurricane intensity by that time.  Because of its large size, Gaston could bring wind and rain to many of the Azores.

Gaston Regains Hurricane Intensity East of Bermuda

Gaston intensified back into a hurricane east if Bermuda on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Gaston was located at latitude 29.6°N and longitude 54.2°W which put it about 655 miles (1055) km east-southeast of Bermuda.  Gaston was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Gaston is as well organized as it has ever been.  Gaston has a well formed circular eye surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms.  Multiple spiral rainbands are rotating around the circulation.  Upper level outflow channels to the southwest and east are enhancing upper level divergence and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

Hurricane Gaston has moved into an environment that is favorable for further intensification.  If it moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level low northeast of Puerto Rico and an upper level low southeast of Gaston are partially responsible for the two upper level outflow channels.  The upper level winds are weaker in between the two upper level lows and the vertical shear is less than it has been in recent days.  Gaston is likely to intensify further and it could become the first Major Hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

The steering currents between the two upper lows are weaker and Hurricane Gaston has been moving more slowly toward the northwest.  Gaston is expected to move slowly northward for another day or two.  An upper level trough is likely to begin to steer the hurricane toward the east in 48 to 72 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Gaston should pass well to the east of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Gaston Forms Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands

A center of circulation quickly organized within a tropical wave on Monday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gaston.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 30.7°W which put it about 450 miles (725 km) west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  Gaston was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation consolidated rapidly around the center of Tropical Storm Gaston on Monday.  Several spiral bands of thunderstorms formed close to the center and additional bands formed farther from the center.  The thunderstorms near the center began to generate upper level divergence, which pumped mass away from the center.

Tropical Storm Gaston is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  Gaston is likely continue to intensify steadily during the next several days and it is expected to become a hurricane.  Once a tightly organized core consolidates completely, Gaston could undergo a period of more rapid intensification.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Storm Gaston toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for a day or so.  The ridge is expected to weaken northwest of Gaston, and the tropical storm is expected to turn more toward the north during the middle of the week.  Gaston could be moving out into the Central Atlantic Ocean by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Grace Forms Southwest of Cape Verde

Enough organization developed in the center of an area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa several days ago for the National Hurricane Center to classify it as Tropical Storm Grace.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 26.4°W which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  Grace was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The area of low pressure that became Tropical Storm Grace had a large area of thunderstorms when it moved off the coast of West Africa.  A few thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation and there are signs that a couple of spiral bands could be forming near the core of Grace.  The strongest thunderstorms are occurring in the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.  Some of the thunderstorms appear to be getting taller, but the core of the circulation is still organizing.

Tropical Storm Grace is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Although there are stronger upper level westerly winds north of the tropical storm, the vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Grace is relatively modest.  It has a day or two for the core of the circulation to organize and to intensify.  When Grace moves farther west it could move into a region where there is drier air.  An upper level trough could produce more vertical wind shear when the tropical storm gets closer to the Caribbean Sea.

A subtropical ridge is steering Grace toward the west and that steering pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.  If Grace gets stronger and the convection taller, it would take a track a little farther to the north.  If it remains weaker and shallower, lower level winds will steer it more to the west.  On its anticipated track, Grace could approach the Lesser Antilles in five or six days.