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Tropical Storm Molave Forms East of Luzon, Saudel Approaches Vietnam

Teopical Storm Molave formed east of Luzon and Tropical Sorm Saudel approached Vietnam on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Molave was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 127.1°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Tabaco, Philippines. Molave was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system east of the Philippines strengthened on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Molave. The circulation around Tropical Storm Molave was still organizing. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Molave. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical StormMolave will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Molave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Molave will strengthen during the 12 to 18 hours before it reaches the Philippines. Molave could weaken when its circulation interacts with the islands of the Philippines. Molave could strengthen to a typhoon when it moves over the South China Sea early next week.

Tropical Storm Molave will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Molave toward the east. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Molave will approach Catanduanes Island in about 12 hours. Molave will reach southeastern Luzon in about 18 hours. Tropical Storm Molave will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the central Philippines. The center of Molave could pass just south of Manila in a day or so. It could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Saudel passes south of Hainan Island as it moved closer to the coast of Vietnam. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 109.7°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) east of Xuan Duc, Vietnam. Saudel was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Saudel will make landfall on the central coast of Vietnam near Xuan Duc in about 18 hours. It will bring gusty winds to the coast. Saudel will drop heavy rain over parts of central Vietnam, southern Laos and northeastern Thailand. The ground in those areas is saturated from prior rain dropped by earlier tropical cyclones and other weather systems. Saudel will make ongoing floods worse.

Tropical Depression 28 Forms over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression Twentyeight formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyeight was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 83.0°W which put it about 255 miles (405 km) south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (650 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. The government of Cuba issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA ariplane and visible satelite images, the National Hurricane Center determined than an area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean possessed sufficient organization to be designated Tropical Depression Twentyeight. The circulation around the depression was still organizing on Saturday afternoon. More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing in other parts of the depression. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentyeight will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Twentyeight could intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Depression Twentyeight will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. The depression could drift toward the northwest during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of the depression later on Sunday. The ridge will steer the depression toward the west-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Twentyeight could pass near the western end of Cuba on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 39.4°N and longitude 58.2°W which put it about 565 miles (910 km) south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 22m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Saudel Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Typhoon Saudel weakened back to a tropical storm over the South China Sea on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 113.1°E which put it about 170 miles (280 km) east-southeast of Hainan. Saudel was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Storm Saudel weakened over the South China Sea on Friday. An upper level ridge over eastern Asia produced easterly winds which blew toward the top of Saudel. Those winds cause moderate vertical wind shear and they were the primary cause of the weakening of the former typhoon. Breaks developed in the ring of strong thunderstorms surrounding the eye. The distribution of thunderstorms became more asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Saudel. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge over eastern Asia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear, will cause Tropical Storm Saudel to continue to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saudel will pass south of Hainan Island in about 24 hours. Saudel could approach the coast of Vietnam in about 36 hours. Saudel could still be a tropical storm when it approaches makes landfall on the central coast of Vietnam between Hue and Vinh. Even if Saudel weakens to a tropical depression, it will still drop locally heavy rain over parts of Vietnam and southern Laos. The heavy rain will cause floods in some locations where the ground is already saturated.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Twentyone-W developed east of Luzon. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyone-W was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 130.7°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) east of Luzon. The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (505 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. The depression is forecast to move toward the Philippines and to strengthen into a tropical storm.

Hurricane Epsilon Passes East of Bermuda

Hurricane Epsilon passed east of Bermuda on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 61.6°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Bermuda. Epsilon was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb. The government of Bermuda discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning.

Hurricane Epsilon weakened as it passed east of Bermuda on Thursday night. The eye was no longer apparent on satellite images. Breaks developed in the ring of thunderstorms around the eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms continued to revolve around the core of Hurricane Epsilon. Storms near the core still generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of Epsilon. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center.

Hurricane Epsilon will move through an environment that could allow it to maintain its intensity for another 24 to 36 hours.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Upper level westerly winds in the middle latitude will create more vertical wind shear on Saturday. The wind shear will cause Epsilon to start to weaken and it will begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Hurricane Epsilon will move around the southwestern part of ridge of high pressure over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Epsilon toward the north during the next 24 hours.  Epsilon will move more toward the northeast during the weekend when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track Hurricane Epsilon will pass southeast of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the weekend.

Typhoon Saudel Strengthens East-southeast of Hainan

Typhoon Saudel strengthened over the South China Sea east-southeast of Hainan Island on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 115.0°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east-southeast of Hainan. Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Typhoon Saudel intensified steadily over the South China Sea on Thursday. A small circular eye was at the center of circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Saudel. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Saudel. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Saudel could intensify during the next 12 hours. After that time an upper level ridge over eastern Asia will strengthen. The ridge will generate easterly winds which blow toward the top of Saudel’s circulation during the weekend. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could cause Saudel to weaken.

Typhoon Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Saudel will approach Hainan Island in about 36 hours. Saudel could approach the coast of Vietnam in about 60 hours.

Saudel Strengthens to a Typhoon over South China Sea

Former Tropical Storm Saudel strengthened to a typhoon over the South China Sea on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Saudel was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 116.0°E which put it about 515 miles (830 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Saudel was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Saudel intensified after the circulation moved over the South China Sea west of Luzon. Satellite imagery provided indications that a small circular eye might be forming at the center of circulation. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the potential eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that rainband. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Saudel. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Saudel. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Saudel will intensify during the next day or so. After that time an upper level ridge over eastern Asia will generate easterly winds which blow toward the top of Saudel’s circulation during the weekend. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could cause Saudel to weaken.

Typhoon Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Saudel will approach Hainan Island in about 48 hours. Saudel could approach the coast of Vietnam in about 72 hours.

Hurricane Epsilon Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Epsilon rapidly intensified to status as a major hurricane on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 29.6°N and longitude 60.0°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. Epsilon was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Epsilon continued to strengthen rapidly Wednesday afternoon. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found on Wednesday afternoon that Epsilon rapidly intensified to a major hurricanee. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was that the center of Hurricane Epsilon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Epsilon. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of Epsilon. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly which caused the wind speeds to increase rapidly. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. The broader circulation around Hurricane Epsilon was large, especially on the northern side. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) on the northern side of Epsilon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Epsilon.

Hurricane Epsilon will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some drier air may wrap around the southern side of the circulation, but the drier air is not forecast to penetrate to the core of the hurricane. Epsilon could strengthen further during the next day or so.

Hurricane Epsilon will move around the southwestern part of ridge of high pressure over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Epsilon toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Epsilon will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge on Thursday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Epsilon could pass east of Bermuda on Thursday night.

Epsilon Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Epsilon intensified into a hurricane on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 56.8°W which put it about 545 miles (875 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. Epsilon was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Former Tropical Storm Epsilon continued to strengthen on Tuesday night. An eye formed at the center of Epsilon. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Epsilon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of Epsilon. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. The broader circulation around Hurricane Epsilon was large, especially on the northern side. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (500 km) on the northern side of Epsilon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Epsilon.

Hurricane Epsilon will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some drier air may wrap around the southern side of the circulation, but the drier air is not forecast to penetrate to the core of the hurricane. Epsilon could intensify during the next 24 hours to 36 hours.

Hurricane Epsilon will move around the southwestern part of ridge of high pressure over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Epsilon toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Epsilon will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Hurricane Epsilon could pass east of Bermuda on Thursday night.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Strengthens, Watch Issued for Bermuda

Tropical Storm Epsilon strengthened on Tuesday and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 55.8°W which put it about 615 miles (995 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. Epsilon was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Epsilon strengthened steadily on Tuesday. The structure of Epsilon exhibited much better organization on satellite imagery. Thunderstorms formed all around the center of circulation. There were occasional indications that an eye could be forming at the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Epsilon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Epsilon was large, especially on the northern side. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (500 km) on the northern side of Epsilon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Epsilon.

Tropical Storm Espilon will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next couple of days.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some drier air may wrap around the southern side of the circulation, but the drier air is not forecast to penetrate to the core of the tropical storm. Epsilon could intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Epsilon will move around the southwestern part of ridge of high pressure over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Epsilon toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Epsilon will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Epsilon could pass east of Bermuda on Thursday night. Epsilon is likely to be a hurricane when it passes east of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Luzon

Tropical Storm Saudel brought wind and rain to Luzon on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 121.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northeast of Manila, Philippines. Saudel was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) determined based on weather radar that the center of Tropical Storm Saudel made landfall on the east coast of Luzon north of Baler on Tuesday. Saudel was getting stronger at the time of landfall. The radar indicated that there was a small, tight center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped closely around the center of Tropical Storm Saudel. Other outer rainbands were revolving around the center. Satellite imagery showed that storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Saudel.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move across northern Luzon during the next 12 hours. Saudel will bring gusty winds an it will drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Luzon. Heavy rain could could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Saudel will weaken while the center crosses Luzon. The center of Saudel is likely to emerge over the South China Sea near Baguio in about 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Storm Saudel from intensifying. Saudel will begin to strengthen again when it moves back over water and it could intensify into a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saudel will approach the coast of Vietnam in a few days.