Monthly Archives: August 2021

Tropical Storm Fred Gets a Little Stronger

Tropical Storm Fred got a little stronger on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Panama City, Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened gradually on Sunday night. Upper level divergence pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 999 mb. The decrease in pressure generated more force and the wind speed increased to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Fred remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Fred. The strongest winds were also occurring on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of Fred. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday afternoon. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Grace weakened to a tropical depression as it passed south of Puerto Rico and Tropical Depression Eight formed east-northeast of Bermuda. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 33.2°N and longitude 62.7°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Linda Churns West

Hurricane Linda churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Linda was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 121.2°W which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Linda was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Hurricane Linda assumed a symmetrical shape on Sunday that is sometimes called an annular hurricane. A large, circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of Linda. The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lida. Storms near the core of Linda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The wind field around Hurricane Linda was also very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Linda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Hurricane Linda will move through an environment unfavorable for a strong hurricane during the next few days. Linda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Cooler water will supply less energy for Hurricane Linda and it will weaken. However, symmetrical (annular) hurricanes tend to be nearly in balance with their environment. Since there will be little vertical wind shear, Hurricane Linda is likely to weaken very gradually.

Hurricane Linda will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer Linda toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Linda will continue to move toward the Central Pacific.

Fred Strengthens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Tropical Storm Fred strengthened back to a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 26.1°N and longitude 84.9°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from Navarre, Florida to the Alabama/Florida border.

Data from a reconnaissance plane on Sunday morning indicated that a low level center of circulation had redeveloped in Tropical Storm Fred. The circulation around Fred was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred and the strongest winds were occurring in those bands. Bands in the western half of Fred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Fred. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move between an upper level low over the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge centered over Cuba. The upper low and the ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Grace was passing south of Puerto Rico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (56 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Samana, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of Haiti and from Samana, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti.

Tropical Storm Grace Brings Wind and Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Grace brought wind and rain to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 62.4°W which put it about 170 miles (280 km) east-southeast of St. Croix. Grace was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (56 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Martin, St.Bathelemy and St. Maarten. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Samana, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo Caucedo, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti and from Samana, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Grace was not very well organized on Saturday evening. There was a broad low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Grace. Bands on the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere were pushing the lower part of Tropical Storm Grace to the west of the middle and upper parts of the circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the northern side of Grace. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Grace will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The winds in the lower levels could weaken a little and there could be a little less vertical wind shear. If the wind shear decreases, it could allow Tropical Storm Grace to become better organized.

Tropical Storm Grace will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Grace could approach Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon. Grace could approach the Dominican Republic on Sunday night.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Tropical Depression Fred were slowly reorganizing northwest of Cuba. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of former Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba. The remnants of Fred were moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The remnants of former Tropical Depression Fred are forecast to reorganize on Sunday and to strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred is forecast to move toward the northern Gulf Coast. Watches and warnings could be issued for a portion of the coast on Sunday.

Hurricane Linda Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Linda strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Linda was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 117.0°W which put it about 525 miles (850 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Linda was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Hurricane Linda continued to strengthen on Saturday and it reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Linda. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Linda. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Linda was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Linda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Linda was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.3.

Hurricane Linda will begin to move over slightly cooler water on Sunday and it will start to weaken. Linda will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. So, Hurricane Linda is likely to weaken gradually during the next 36 hours.

Hurricane Linda will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Linda toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Linda will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Linda Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Linda rapidly intensified to a major hurricane south of Baja California on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Linda was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 112.9°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Linda was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Hurricane Linda rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (35 km) was evident on visible satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Linda. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Linda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Linda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Linda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Linda could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. Linda will start to move over slightly cooler water on Saturday, which is likely to cause the hurricane to start to weaken.

Hurricane Linda will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Linda toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Linda will move farther away from Mexico.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Prompts Watches for Leeward Islands

A threat from Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for some of the Leeward Islands on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 49.3°W which put it about 840 miles (1350 km) east of the Leeward Islands. The potential tropical cyclone was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The National Hurricane Center designated a tropical disturbance east of the Leeward Islands as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven on Friday morning in order to be able to issue watches for the system. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was still in the early stages of organizing on Friday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the western side of the tropical disturbance. There were few thunderstorms in the eastern side of the disturbance.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next several days. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The disturbance will move through a region where the winds will blow from the east at all levels in the troposphere. The winds near the surface could be stronger near the surface, which could cause some vertical wind shear in the lower levels. The shear might not be too strong and a tropical cyclone is likely to form during the next 48 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will approach the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday night. It could be near Puerto Rico by Sunday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was moving across central Cuba. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) northeast of Moron, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritis, Villa Clara, Ciego de Avila and Camaguey.

The center of Tropical Depression Fred was moving west-northwest across central Cuba on Friday morning. An upper level low centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico was causing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and the increased friction over land were preventing Tropical Depression Fred from strengthening. The upper level low is forecast to weaken during the weekend and Fred could intensify to a tropical storm once the center moves past Cuba. Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean and it could move over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Fred Prompts Watches for Florida Keys and Southwest Florida

The forecast for Tropical Depression Fred prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue Tropical Storm Watches for the Florida Keys and the coast of Southwest Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 75.3°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Holguin, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Holguin, Las Tunas and Granma.

Tropical Depression Fred was spinning just to the north of eastern Cuba on Thursday afternoon. The circulation around Fred was significantly weaker after its passage over mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A distinct low level rotation was evident on visible satellite images, but there were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of circulation. New thunderstorms appeared to be developing in bands on the southeastern side of Tropical Depression Fred. Bands in the other parts of Fred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper low over Florida. The upper low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The southern part of the circulation around Tropical Depression Fred will pass over Cuba. The friction will be greater where the air flows over land and that will also inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Fred could slowly strengthen if the center stays over the warm water north of Cuba, but intensification is likely to be gradual.

Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Fred will move more toward the northwest during the weekend, when it gets closer to the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Fred will move near the northern coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. Fred could approach the Florida Keys by Saturday morning. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys. Fred is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Linda Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Linda strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Linda was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Linda was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Linda strengthened on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a hurricane. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Linda and satellite images intermittently depicted the potential formation of an eye. Most of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Linda were occurring near the center of circulation and in bands in the southern half of the hurricane. Bands in the northern half of Linda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Linda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Linda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Linda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered near Baja California. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Linda’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will somewhat inhibit intensification but the shear will not strong enough to prevent Linda from strengthening.

Hurricane Linda will move south of a high pressure system that extends from Mexico westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Linda toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On it anticipated track Hurricane Linda will pass south of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Kevin was weakening west of Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Kevin was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 120.6°W which put it about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Kevin was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Dominican Republic

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Gonaives, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.

The center of Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Santo Domingo on Wednesday afternoon. Fred became better organized and a little stronger prior to making landfall. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the surface pressure decreased slightly. The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Fred. At the time of landfall winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Fred’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Fred will move across the western part of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti during the next 24 hours. Fred will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti will significantly disrupt the low level circulation of Tropical Storm Fred. Fred is likely to weaken to a tropical depression during the next 12 hours. The circulation of Tropical Storm Fred in the middle troposphere could survive passage over those mountains. The center of Tropical Storm Fred will move northwest of Haiti on Thursday. The Sea Surface Temperatures of the water northwest of Haiti are near 29°C. If the middle level circulation of Fred survives, it could spin up a new low level center of circulation when it moves back over the warm water. An upper level low near Florida will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they will inhibit re-intensification of Tropical Storm Fred. If the center of Fred remains north of Cuba, it could strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred could approach the Florida Keys and South Florida on Friday. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.