Tag Archives: Louisiana

Depression Likely to Form over Western Gulf of Mexico

A tropical depression is likely to form over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours within a broad area of low pressure currently designated as Invest 92L. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 92L was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 93.6.W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east-southeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Invest 92L was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The weather system designated as Invest 92L was actually a complex circulation consisting of parts of several different weather features. A broad surface low pressure system extended from the Eastern North Pacific Ocean across Mexico over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The northern end of a tropical wave at the surface was over the Yucatan Peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system in the middle and upper troposphere was over the western gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico. An upper level ridge was over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern periphery of the broad surface low. Drier air in the middle and upper levels was over the western Gulf of Mexico and the drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in other parts of Invest 92L. Several small circulation centers formed within clusters of thunderstorms on the eastern side of the broader low during the past two days. Those centers moved toward the west-southwest and dissipated over Mexico.

The environment around Invest 92L will become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 36 hours. Invest 92L will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. The upper level low and the upper ridge will interact to produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Invest 92L. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they will also be a source of upper level divergence to the east of Invest 92L. The upper level divergence will cause the surface pressure to decrease slowly . The drier air over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms on the western side of the broad low pressure system. The inner end of a rainband will wrap closer to the center, but most of the thunderstorms are likely to remain in the eastern half of Invest 92L. The National Hurricane Center indicated that the probability is 80% that a tropical depression will form during the next 48 hours.

The upper level low and the upper ridge will steer Invest 92L slowly toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the low pressure system could approach the coast of eastern Texas and Louisiana by Friday night. Invest 92L could be a tropical depression or a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. It will likely drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland.

Low Pressure over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

A broad area of low pressure was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. The system was designated as Invest 92L. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 92L was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 96.0°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. The area of low pressure was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

The broad area of low pressure exhibited a little more organization on Sunday afternoon. There was an apparent low level center located north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. However, there were few thunderstorms near the apparent center. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring far to the east and north of the apparent center. Some of the stronger winds were occurring in the thunderstorms far to the east and north of that center.

Invest 92L is likely to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. The broad area of low pressure will be in an area somewhat favorable for the development of a tropical depression. Invest 92L will be over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will be under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered south of Mexico. The ridge will produce westerly winds which will blow across the top of the broad low pressure system. The westerly winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. The upper level ridge could move a little farther north in two or three days, which would cause the westerly winds to weaken. If that happens, then the conditions could become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 50% that a tropical depression forms during the next five days.

Hurricane Zeta Hits New Orleans

Hurricane Zeta hit New Orleans, Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi on Wednesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 88.7°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Zeta was moving toward the northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line in Florida.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall on the coast of Louisiana near Grand Isle late on Wednesday afternoon. The eye of Zeta passed over New Orleans before moving northeast into southern Mississippi. The strongest winds in Hurricane Zeta occurred in the eastern half of the circulation. A NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Shell Beach Louisiana (SHBL1) reported a sustained wind speed of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and a wind gust of 101 m.p.h. (163 km/h). A NOAA NOS station at the Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi (WYCM6) reported a wind speed of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and a wind gust of 103 m.p.h. (167 km/h). The National Weather Service (NWS) office at the airport in New Orleans (KMSY) reported a Peak Wind of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h). A station in Biloxi, Mississippi (KBIX) reported a sustained wind speed of 64 m.p.h. (104 km/h) and a wind gust of 87 m.p.h. (141 km/h). A station in Mobile, Alabama (KMOB) reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 m.p.h. (146 km/h).

There were reports of significant storm surges along the coast of Mississippi. There were also reports of widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will move rapidly northeastward across Alabama during the night. The center of Zeta will be over northwestern Georgia by Thursday morning. Hurricane Zeta will weaken to a tropical storm during the night, but it will be capable of causing additional power outages. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for the area from Alabama to western Virginia. Zeta will eventually merge with a cold front and make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The extratropical cyclone could contribute to snow that will fall over the northeastern U.S.

Hurricane Zeta Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Zeta strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it neared southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 91.1°W which put it about 155 miles (255 km) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Zeta was moving toward the north-northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line in Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane found that Hurricane Zeta was continuing to intensify on Wednesday. There was a a circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) at the center of Zeta. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force were occurring mainly in the eastern side of Zeta. Winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than hurricane force.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.2. Hurricane Zeta was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Zeta could strengthen a little more before it makes landfall. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C. An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could start to weaken just before it makes landfall. However, Zeta will be moving fairly quickly and it may not weaken much before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Zeta toward the north-northeast during the next few hours. Zeta is likely to make landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana. The center of Hurricane Zeta will pass very close to New Orleans and that city could experience hurricane force winds. The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of Zeta, which could also bring hurricane force winds to the coast of Mississippi. Places west of Grand Isle will experience weaker winds. Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 4 meters) along the coast of Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will weaken when it moves inland. Zeta will be strong enough to cause widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and central and southern Alabama. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches extend from southeastern Louisiana to northern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Zeta Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Zeta strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 91.7°W which put it about 295 miles (470 km) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Zeta was moving toward the north at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County line in Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

After weakening to a tropical storm when it passed over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday morning, Zeta intensified back to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) developed at the center of the eye. The ring of thunderstorms around the eye strengthened during the night and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force were occurring mainly in the eastern side of Zeta. Winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than hurricane force.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.6. Hurricane Zeta was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Zeta is likely to intensify further during the next few hours and it could strengthen to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta later today. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, Zeta will be moving more quickly at that time and it may not weaken much before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

The upper level trough is likely to steer Hurricane Zeta toward the northeast as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane Zeta is likely to make landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana. The center of Hurricane Zeta will pass very close to New Orleans and that city could experience hurricane force winds. The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of Zeta, which could also bring hurricane force winds to the coast of Mississippi. Places west of Grand Isle will experience weaker winds. Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 4 meters) along the coast of Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will weaken when it moves inland. Zeta will be strong enough to cause widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and central and southern Alabama. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches extend from southeastern Louisiana to northern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Zeta Brings Hurricane Force Winds to Yucatan, Warnings Issued for Gulf Coast

Zeta brought hurricane force winds to part of the Yucatan Peninsula early on Tuesday and warnings were issued for the Gulf Coast. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 88.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Progreso, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. THe Hurricane Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Allen to Progreso was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall on the northeastern part of the Yucatan Penisula just north of Tulum, Mexico on Monday night. Weather stations in Playa del Carmen and on Cozumel reported sustained wind speeds of hurricane force. Zeta dropped heavy rain over parts of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Zeta weakened to a tropical storm when it moved across the northern Yucatan. The center of Tropical Storm Zeta was just about to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The circulation around Zeta remained intact. Thunderstorms were occurring around the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Zeta. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Wins to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few hours. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta is likely to intensify back into a hurricane on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta on Wednesday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Tuesday. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. The upper level trough is likely to steer Zeta toward the northeast as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Zeta is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast

Zeta Intensifies to a Hurricane, Watches Issued for Gulf Coast

Former Tropical Storm Zeta intensified into a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 86.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico and the warning included Cancun and Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Allen to Tulum, Mexico and from Dzilam to Progresso. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.

Former Tropical Storm Zeta intensified quickly into a hurricane on Monday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and the circulation became more symmetrical. Storms that formed near the center of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which contributed to the increase in wind speed. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center in the northeast quadrant of Zeta. The winds in the other quadrants were blowing at less than hurricane force. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the western half of Zeta.

Hurricane Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours and it could strengthen more. Zeta will move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. It will likely weaken while the center passes over land. Hurricane Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Zeta is likely to intensify on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Zeta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Zeta will pass over the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northeastern Yucatan. It will also cause a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) along the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore. Hurricane Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Zeta is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Zeta Strengthens over Northwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 260 miles (425 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Warning included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened during Sunday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The stronger thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Zeta. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Despite the asymmetrical structure, thunderstorms near that center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Zeta. The winds on the western side of Zeta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Zeta could weaken if the center passes over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta on Monday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta could be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could reach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Epsilon made a transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone east of Newfoundland. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 48.6°N and longitude 38.8°W which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

TD 28 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Zeta

Tropical Depression Twentyeight strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Watch included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA airplane and a scatterometer on a satellite, the National Hurricane Center determined that Tropical Depression Twentyeight had strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday morning. The circulation around Zeta was still not well organized. The circulation in the middle troposphere was located to the east of the surface center. The lower level circulation seemed to be shifting closer to the middle level circulation and it was possible that a new center could be developing under the middle level rotation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the middle level center. Storms near that center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Data from the airplane indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of Zeta. The tropical storm force winds extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If Zeta remains stationary for another 12 to 24 hours, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface, which could interrupt intensification. Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Zeta will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. Zeta could meander over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta later on Sunday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday evening.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 42.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Depression 28 Forms over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression Twentyeight formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyeight was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 83.0°W which put it about 255 miles (405 km) south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (650 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. The government of Cuba issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA ariplane and visible satelite images, the National Hurricane Center determined than an area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean possessed sufficient organization to be designated Tropical Depression Twentyeight. The circulation around the depression was still organizing on Saturday afternoon. More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing in other parts of the depression. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentyeight will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Twentyeight could intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Depression Twentyeight will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. The depression could drift toward the northwest during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of the depression later on Sunday. The ridge will steer the depression toward the west-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Twentyeight could pass near the western end of Cuba on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 39.4°N and longitude 58.2°W which put it about 565 miles (910 km) south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 22m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.