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Hurricane Fiona Blows Past Bermuda

Hurricane Fiona blew past Bermuda on Thursday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 34.1°N and longitude 64.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) north of Bermuda. Fiona was moving toward the north-northeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hubbards to Brule, Nova Scotia. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Prince Edward Islands and Isle de la Madeline. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Francois, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for St. Andrews, New Brunswick to Hubbards, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeline, Quebec. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Anticosti Island and for the portion of the coast from Sheldrake, Quebec to Parson’s Pond, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor to Hare Bay, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Francois to St. Lawrence, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor, Newfoundland to West Bay, Labrador.

The center of Hurricane Fiona passed west of Bermuda on Thursday night. The L. F. Wade International Airport in Bermuda reported a sustained wind speed of 64 m.p.h. (103 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 m.p.h. (134 km/h). There were reports of stronger wind speeds measured by automated stations in higher locations in Bermuda.

Hurricane Fiona continued to be a large, well organized hurricane. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Fiona’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Fiona. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Fiona grew into a large hurricane as it moved farther north on Thursday night. Winds to hurricane force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Fiona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 32.70 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.3. Hurricane Fiona was larger than Hurricane Jeanne was in 2004.

Hurricane Fiona will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures colder than 26˚C. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Fiona will start to weaken gradually when the wind shear increase. A combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Fiona to make a transition to a very strong extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Fiona toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fiona will move away from Bermuda on Friday. Hurricane Fiona will approach the Canadian Maritimes on Friday night. Fiona will bring strong, destructive winds to the Canadian Maritimes. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston was bringing wind and rain to the Azores and Tropical Depression Nine formed over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 40.5°N and longitude 29.2°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) north-northwest of the Faial. Gaston was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 615 miles (985 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to intensify to a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. It could move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. There were reports of up to 10 inches of rain falling on locations in the area around Miami. The heavy rain caused urban and street flooding in some locations. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Bonita Beach on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. A rain gauge at Biscayne Park measured 10.98 inches (27.9 cm) of rain. Media reports showed urban and street flooding in some locations.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One remained poorly organized on Saturday morning. There was a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of low pressure was located south-southwest of Naples, Florida. There was another circulation center located west-southwest of the Florida Keys. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring over South Florida and over the Northwestern Bahamas. The western half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One contained mainly showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Sunday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could strengthen to a tropical storm when it moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream on Sunday.

The upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move across South Florida on Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Florida and the Northwestern Bahamas during Saturday. More heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Produces Tropical Storm Force Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone One produced tropical storm force winds over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for South Florida, all of the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 86.8°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight found that Potential Tropical Cyclone One was producing winds to tropical storm force over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Potential Tropical Cyclone One was asymmetrical due to vertical wind shear caused by an upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass to the east of the system. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to South Florida, the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for South Florida and Western Cuba

The National Hurricane Center issued Tropical Storm Watches for South Florida and all of the Florida Keys on Thursday afternoon. The government of Cuba also issued Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba. The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for all of the Florida Keys. The government of Cuba issued Tropical Storm Watches for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One in keeping with its policy on the issuance of watches and warnings. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One consisted of a broad area of low pressure. One or more smaller centers of circulation were revolving around inside the broad area of low pressure. The National Hurricane Center identified a center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula as the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Images from satellites and radar indicated that a middle level center of circulation might be located near the western end of Cuba. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the low pressure system. Bands in the western half of the circulation were over the Yucatan Peninsula and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to western Cuba and South Florida later this week. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Drops Rain on Southeast U.S.

A disturbance designated as Invest 90L dropped rain over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 32.7°N and longitude 86.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northwest of Montgomery, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A disturbance that formed over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend moved quickly toward the north-northeast and it was located over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. The center of the disturbance made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday night near Pensacola, Florida. The disturbance was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Alabama and western Georgia on Monday morning. The disturbance will move quickly toward the north-northeast and it will merge with a cold front over the southeastern U.S. Locally heavy rain will spread over eastern Tennessee, western South Carolina, western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and West Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Moves Toward Gulf Coast

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms moved toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 27.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 90L on Sunday afternoon. Visible satellite images showed that a distinct center of circulation had formed in a disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. A swirl of lower clouds was clearly visible on the images. Some thunderstorms were beginning to develop in bands northwest of the center of circulation. Otherwise, there were mainly low clouds and showers in the other bands near the center. Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band on the northeastern periphery of the disturbance.

The disturbance will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the disturbance. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The disturbance is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook indicated the probability was 10% that the disturbance would develop into a tropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the disturbance toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Cluster of Thunderstorms Forms over Central Gulf of Mexico

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The cluster of storms persisted on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the cluster of thunderstorms was located near latitude 26.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The cluster of thunderstorms was moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Some of the thunderstorms in the cluster were producing sustained winds of 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and it persisted on Sunday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation beneath the cluster of storms. Visible satellite loops provided indications of several possible centers of rotation in the middle troposphere. Thunderstorms in the cluster generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away toward the northeast. The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms.

The cluster of thunderstorms will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The cluster of storms will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the thunderstorms. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The cluster of thunderstorms is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if a surface center of circulation forms beneath the cluster.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the cluster of thunderstorms toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. One band of showers and thunderstorms is currently approaching that area. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Tropical Storm Mindy Forms near Florida Panhandle

Tropical Storm Mindy formed near the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 86.3°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. Mindy was moving toward the northeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Steinhatchee River, Florida.

A surface low pressure system spun up quickly near the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Mindy. More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Mindy. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. NOAA buoy 42039 reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 m.p.h. (83 km/h) at 4:40 p.m. EDT. The buoy also reported a surface pressure of 1007.8 mb.

Tropical Storm Mindy could strengthen a little during the next few hours before it makes landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida. Mindy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mindy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will limit potential intensification.

The upper level low will steer Tropical Storm Mindy quickly toward the northeast during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mindy will make landfall on the coast near Port St. Joe, Florida on Wednesday evening. Mindy will move more toward the east-northeast on Thursday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Tropical Storm Mindy will produce gusty winds along the coast of Northwest Florida. Mindy could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for parts of northern Florida. Southerly winds on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Mindy will push waves toward the coast and some beach erosion is likely.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Larry moved closer to Bermuda on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 28.9°N and longitude 59.2°W which put it about 405 miles (655 km) southeast of Bermuda. Larry was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Ida Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Ida rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the overnight hours. At 7:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 28.3°N and longitude 89.4°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) south-southeast of Grand Isle, Louisiana. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to Intracoastal City and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida Line.

Hurricane Ida rapidly intensified to Category 4 southeast of Louisiana on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Ida. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speed increased quickly.

The circulation around Hurricane Ida increased in size when it rapidly intensified. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Ida was 31.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.6. Hurricane Ida was as strong as Hurricane Laura was last year and Ida was just a little smaller than Laura was. Hurricane Ida will be capable of causing regional severe damage.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will be under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Ida could strengthen a little more before it makes landfall in southeast Louisiana. Hurricane Ida could pull some slightly drier air over the southeastern U.S. into its circulation when it nears the coast. If that happens, Ida will stop intensifying and it could weaken slightly just before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Ida is likely to make landfall the coast of southeast Louisiana as a major hurricane in a few hours.  Ida will be capable of causing severe damage. Hurricane Ida could cause a storm surge of up to 12 to 16 feet (3.6 to 5 meters). A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast from west of Vermillion Bay to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermillion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Ida move toward the north as it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana. Ida could produce hurricane force winds in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Widespread power outages could occur in southeast Louisiana. Ida will also drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Flash floods could occur in that region.

Hurricane Ida Crosses Western Cuba

Hurricane Ida moved across western Cuba on Friday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 84.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) west of Havana, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron to Intracoastal City, Louisiana and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the Cuba provinces of the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

The center of Hurricane Ida passed over western Cuba on Friday evening. Even though the center of Ida was over land for several hours, weather radars in Cuba and reports from a reconnaissance plane indicated that the core of Hurricane Ida remained intact. A circular eye with a diameter of 26 miles (42 km) was at the center of Ida. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Storms near the generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ida will strengthen now that the center is moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters). A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast from west of Vermillion Bay to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Ida could start to move more slowly when it nears the coast on Sunday. That could prolong the duration of strong winds. Widespread power outages could occur in southeast Louisiana. Ida will also drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Flash floods could occur in that region. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been announced for parts of southeastern Louisiana. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020. Ida is likely to be bigger and strong than Hurricane Zeta was when Zeta hit the same part of Louisiana in 2020.