Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Typhoon Bavi Passes West of Okinawa

Typhoon Bavi passed west of Okinawa on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 125.6°E which put it about 595 miles (965 km) south-southwest of Chinhae, South Korea.  Bavi was moving toward the east-northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A circular eye developed at the center of Typhoon Bavi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bavi toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bavi will pass west of the northern Ryukyu Islands.  Bavi could be southeast of South Korea in about 72 hours.

Marco Strengthens to a Hurricane, Laura Drenches Hispaniola

Former Tropical Storm Marco strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico while Tropical Storm Laura dropped drenching rain on Hispaniola.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Marco was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 87.4°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Mississippi.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to Morgan City and for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Former Tropical Storm Marco strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday.  A small eye developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Marco.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Marco was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marco will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Marco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Marco.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Marco from strengthening during the next 18 hours.

The upper level trough and a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will steer Hurricane Marco toward the north-northwest during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marco will approach southeast Louisiana on Monday.  Marco will bring gusty winds and drop locally heavy rain over southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Laura dropped heavy rain on the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There were reports of flash floods.  At 2:00 pm. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 74.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to the border with Haiti and for the entire coast of Haiti.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Carla, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys to the Isle of Youth.  Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Central Bahamas and Andros Island.

Tropical Storm Marco Strengthens, Hurricane Watch for New Orleans

Tropical Storm Marco strengthened on Saturday and a Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the central Gulf Coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 68.1°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of the western tip of Cuba.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

Tropical Storm Marco exhibited much better organization on Saturday.  Weather radar on a reconnaissance plane and from Cuba as well as visible satellite images indicated that a small eye developed at the center of Marco.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Marco.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Marco was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 50 miles (80 km) on the western side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Marco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the nextt 24 hours.  Marco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move east of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not likely to be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Marco is likely to intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Since he circulation around Marco is small, the tropical storm could strengthen or weaken quickly if the environment changes.

The upper level trough and a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will steer Tropical Storm Marco toward the north-northwest during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Marco could approach southeastern Louisiana by Monday afternoon.  Marco could be a hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Laura dropped heavy rain over Puerto Rico and it prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 68.1°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  Laura was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the northern coast of Hispaniola from Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Long Key, Crooked Island, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Granma.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Central Bahamas and for Andros Island.

Tropical Storm Marco is forecast to move over HIspaniola and the mountains there are likely to disrupt the circulation.

Tropical Storm Bavi Forms East of Taiwan

Tropical Storm Bavi formed east of Taiwan on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bavi was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 122.8°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Bavi was moving toward the north-northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of Taiwan strengthened on Friday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Bavi.  The circulation around Bavi was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  The winds on the western side of Tropical Storm Bavi were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bavi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Bavi will intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bavi will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bavi toward the north-northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Bavi will pass west of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.  Bavi could approach South Korea in about four days.  The eastern side of Bavi will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands.

TD 14 Strengthens into Tropical Storm Marco

Former Tropical Depression Fourteen strengthened into Tropical Storm Marco over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 84.9°W which puts it about 180 miles (290 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Dzilam, Mexico.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found winds to tropical storm force in former Tropical Depression Fourteen and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Marco.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Marco.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in short bands northeast of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of Marco.  The winds in the other parts of the tropical storm were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Marco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move east of a large upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Marco.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Marco will intensify on Saturday and it could strengthen quickly because the circulation is small.  Tropical Storm Marco could also weaken quickly if the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Marco will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high and the upper level trough will interact to steer Marco toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Marco could pass near the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, disorganized Tropical Storm Laura sped across the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 84.9°W which put it about 195 miles (315 km) east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the north coast of HIspaniola from Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Laura Develops, Warnings for Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Laura developed east of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday morning.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 60.2°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Laura was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, the U. S, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the north coast of Hispaniola from Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to Cabron, Dominican Republic and for the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.

A NOAA plane found winds to tropical storm force in former Tropical Depression Thirteen on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Laura.  Even though the plane found winds to tropical storm force, the circulation around Tropical Storm Laura was not well organized. There were several clusters of thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation, but there were fewer thunderstorms in the southern half of Laura.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) on the northern side of the tropical storm.  The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Laura will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The lack of organization of the circulation around Laura will limit how quickly the tropical storm can intensify.  Tropical Storm Laura is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Laura will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Laura toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Laura will move across the northern Leeward Islands later today.  Laura could reach Puerto Rico by Saturday.  Tropical Storm Laura will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the islands when it passes over them.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fourteen was getting more organized over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 84.1°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Bay Islands, Honduras and from Punta Herrero to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.

Tropical Depression Fourteen Forms Over Western Caribbean

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 79.7°W which put it about 235 miles (375 km) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  The depression was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Honduras from the border with Nicaragua to Punta Castilla including the Bay Islands.

Satellite images on Thursday morning indicated that a center of circulation had developed within a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fourteen.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Fourteen was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and they were beginning to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen during the next day or two.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will move around the southwester part of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  The depression will turn toward the northwest on Friday when it gets closer to the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Fourteen will pass near the coast of Honduras on Friday.  It will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  The depression could drop heavy rain over eastern Honduras and flash floods will be possible.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean,, Tropical Depression Thirteen was speeding toward the northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 52.0°W which put it about 750 miles (1205 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla.

Hurricane Genevieve Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Genevieve brought wind and rain to southern Baja California on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Genevieve passed just southwest of the southern tip of Baja California on Thursday morning.  A weather station at the Cabo San Lucas Marina reported a wind gust of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  Bands of thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Baja California.  There were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Genevieve will weaken during the next several days as it moves over cooler water.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 26°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will weaken gradually as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.  Genevieve will continue to bring gusty winds to the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop move heavy rain and additional flash floods are likely.

Tropical Depression 13 Forms, Watch Issued for Saba and St. Eustatius

Tropical Depression Thirteen formed about 1000 miles (1600 km) east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 47.9°W which put it about 1035 miles (1670 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Saba and St. Eustatius.

A distinct center of circulation developed within a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Thirteen.  The circulation around the depression was still organizing.  Thunderstorms were building near the newly formed center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  The stronger thunderstorms were in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Thirteen will likely strengthen gradually at first while the circulation is organizing.  If an inner core develops, then the rate of intensification could increase.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Thirteen could approach the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

Genevieve Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

A potential close approach of Hurricane Genevieve prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the southern tip of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 109.7°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

Hurricane Genevieve continued to exhibit a well organized circulation.  A circular eye was present at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Genevieve.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating strong upper level divergence was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Genevieve.  Tropical Storm force winds extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.0.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment less favorable for a major hurricane during the next few days.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve is likely to weaken when the core starts to move over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of an ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will Genevieve toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Genevieve could be near the southern tip of Baja California in about 18 hours.  Genevieve will cause gusty winds over the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop locally heavy rain which could cause flash floods.