Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Typhoon Lingling Strengthens to the Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Lingling intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane over the southern Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Lingling was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 125.4°E which put it about 200 miles (325 km) southwest of Okinawa.  Lingling was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Typhoon Lingling quickly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday night.  A circular eye was at the center of Lingling.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Lingling.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (325 km) from the center.

Typhoon Lingling will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Lingling will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Lingling is likely to intensify on Thursday.  At some point an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Lingling to weaken.

Typhoon Lingling will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Lingling toward the north during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Lingling will pass west of Okinawa during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Dorian Moves Parallel to Florida Coast

Hurricane Dorian moved parallel to the east coast of Florida on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km/h) east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sebastian Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and from Savannah River, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to Savannah River, Georgia and from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida and from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah, River, Georgia.  Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia and for Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

Although Hurricane Dorian was moving again, it exhibited the structure of a hurricane that had been stationary for a day and had undergone an eyewall replacement cycle.  There was a large ragged eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storm near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

An eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Dorian to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (285 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.1.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the large size of Hurricane Dorian will limit potential intensification.  Hurricane Dorian could intensify a little on Wednesday.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will approach Dorian on Wednesday night.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear on Thursday.

Hurricane Dorian will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  The high will steer Dorian toward the north-northwest.  The upper level trough will turn Dorian toward the northeast on Wednesday night.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will move nearly parallel to the east coast of Florida on Wednesday.  Dorian could approach the coast of South Carolina by Wednesday night.

Elsewhere Tropical Storm Fernand was over the western Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression was west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico.  Fernand was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Altimira, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 32.8°W which put it about 615 miles (995 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernand Forms Over W. Gulf of Mexico, Dorian Edges Away From Bahamas

Tropical Storm Fernand formed over the western Gulf of Mexico and powerful Hurricane Dorian edged slowly away from the Northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east of La Pesca, Mexico.  Fernand was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico exhibited greater organization on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fernand.  The circulation around Fernand consisted of a broad area of lower pressure.  One rainband wrapped around the northern periphery of the circulation and a second rainband wrapped around the western periphery of the circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 105 miles (170 km) from the center of the circulation on the western side of Fernand.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Fernand is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  However, the broad circulation will limit how fast the tropical storm can intensify.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move south of an ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S.  The ridge will Fernand toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fernand is expected to make landfall on the coast of Mexico between La Pesca and Mezquital on Wednesday.  Fernand will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods where Tropical Storm Fernand moves inland over northeastern Mexico.  Fernand could also cause a storm surge of 6 feet (2 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Dorian began to edge slowly away from the Northwestern Bahamas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 78.7°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east of Ft. Pierce, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach and from South Santee River to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida and from Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach.  The Hurricane Warnings for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island had been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings, since Dorian was moving away from those locations.

Hurricane Dorian finally started to move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will turn Dorian toward the northeast on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Dorian will stay offshore and move parallel to east coast of Florida.  A small deviation to the west could bring the core of Dorian close to the coast.  The center of Hurricane Dorian could move very close to the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday.  The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (275 km) from the center.

Lingling Strengthens to Typhoon South of Ryukyu Islands

Former Tropical Storm Lingling strengthened to a typhoon south of the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Lingling was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 124.3°E which put it about 180 miles (295 km) south of Ishigaki, Japan.  Lingling was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Typhoon Lingling exhibited much greater organization on Tuesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Lingling.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the southeastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Lingling were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 30 miles from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

Typhoon Lingling will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Lingling will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Lingling is likely to continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane in a couple of days.

Typhoon Lingling is moving around the western end of a large subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lingling toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Lingling could reach the southern Ryukyu Islands within 24 hours.  Lingling will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Typhoon Lingling could approach Kyushu and South Korea in about three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Kajiki was dropping heavy rain over parts of Vietnam and Laos.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Kajiki was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 107.3°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west-northwest of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Kajiki was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Hurricane Dorian Hammers the Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Dorian hammered the Northwestern Bahamas on Monday.  After pounding the Abacos on Sunday night, Hurricane Dorian moved slowly across Grand Bahama Island before stalling over that island for much of Monday.  There were reports of significant storms surges, numerous injuries and some fatalities.  Dorian was still battering Grand Bahama Island on Monday night.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northeast of Freeport, Bahamas and about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was essentially stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet and from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach and for Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Dorian weakened slowly on Monday.  As it remained nearly stationary the winds around Dorian mixed cooler water to the surface.  Hurricane Dorian was unable to extract enough energy from the ocean to maintain its extreme intensity,  The circulation in core of Dorian developed two concentric eyewalls.  The concentric eyewalls suggested that the hurricane had started an eyewall replacement cycle which may have also contributed to the reduction of the wind speed.

The concentric eyewalls also produced an increase in the size of the circulation around Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out abou 150 miles from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15,2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.3.

Hurricane Dorian was south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high was blocking Dorian and preventing the hurricane from moving toward the north.  The western end of the high is forecast to weaken on Tuesday.  When the end of the high weakens, it will allow Hurricane Dorian to move toward the northwest.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will approach Dorian on Wednesday.  The trough is forecast to turn Dorian toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could approach the Central Florida coast by Tuesday night.  Dorian could approach the Carolinas on Wednesday night.

Hurricane Dorian will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it starts moving again on Tuesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Dorian could still be in the weakening part of the eyewall replacement cycle and Dorian may not intensify despite the favorable environment.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause wind shear to increase on Wednesday.  The increase in wind shear will likely cause Hurricane Dorian to weaken when it approaches the Carolinas.

Juliette Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Juliette rapidly intensified into a major hurricane southwest of Baja California on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Juliette was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 114.0°W which put it abou 440 miles (710 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Juliette was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Hurricane Juliette intensified rapidly on Monday as it moved through an environment of warm water and littler vertical wind shear.  An eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of strong thunderstorms increased in the eastern half of the circulation.  Bands in the western half of the circulation contained fewer thunderstorms.  Storms around the core of Juliette generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Juliette will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another day or so.  Juliette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Juliette could strengthen further on Tuesday.  Juliette will move over cooler water later this week and it will start to weaken.

Hurricane Juliette will move southwest of a ridge over the southwestern U.S.  The ridge will steer Juliette toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Juliette will remain well west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Kajiki Forms Near Vietnam

Tropical Storm Kajiki formed near the coast of Vietnam on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Kajiki was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 107.6°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northeast of Vinh Linh, Vietnam.  Kajiki was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The wind speed around a low pressure system just east of the coast of Vietnam increased to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Kajiki.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Kajiki was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Kajiki contained fewer thunderstorms.  Kajiki was moving south of an upper level ridge over eastern Asia.  The ridge was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Storm Kajiki toward the southwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  On it anticipated track Kajiki will reach the coast of Vietnam within 12 hours.  Even though Tropical Storm Kajiki will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, it will have only a few hours to strengthen before the center reaches the coast.  Kajiki will bring some gusty winds to the coast, but the greater risk is for heavy rain.  Tropical Storm Kajiki will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Vietnam and northern Laos.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lingling was strengthening as it north toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lingling was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 124.1°E which put it about 565 miles (915 km) south-southwest of Okinawa.  Lingling was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.  Tropical Storm Lingling is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon before it reaches the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Lingling Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Lingling formed east of Luzon on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lingling was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Luzon.  Lingling was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of Luzon on Sunday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Lingling.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Lingling was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming around the center of circulation.  Storms around the center of circulation were starting to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Lingling will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Lingling will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lingling will intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon in a few days.

Tropical Storm Lingling will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lingling toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Lingling will remain east of Luzon.  Lingling will approach Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands in about 36 hours.

Hurricane Dorian Pounds Northwest Bahamas, Warning Issued for Florida

Hurricane Dorian pounded the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday afternoon and a Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the southeast Florida coast.  Dorian was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Dorian was locate at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 77.3°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 910 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast of Florida from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.  Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida and from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for Andros Island.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from  Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, Florida and for Lake Okeechobee.

The core of Hurricane Dorian moved over Great Abaco Island on Sunday afternoon.  Dorian intensified rapidly to an intense Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reached the warm water around the Bahamas.  The pressure decreased rapidly to 910 mb and the winds increased to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) at the center of Hurricane Dorian.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dorian.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (220 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 44.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14,3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 58.4.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.  Dorian was stronger than Hurricane Andrew was when Andrew hit southeast Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Dorian will remain in a favorable environment for intense hurricanes for another 24 to 36 hours.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  It appeared that an inner rainband may have wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  Radar images indicated that there could be two concentric eyewalls.  If there are two eyewalls, then an eyewall replacement cycle is underway.  Hurricane Dorian will weaken, at least temporarily when the inner eyewall dissipates.  However, Dorian will get larger when the strongest winds occur in the outer eyewall.

Hurricane Dorian will move near the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Eventually, Hurricane Dorian will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will linger over the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday night.  The core of Dorian will pass over or very near Grand Bahama Island.  It could cause catastrophic damage on the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  Hurricane Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Juliette Develops Rapidly South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Juliette developed rapidly south of Baja California on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 108.8°W which put it about 600 miles (965 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Juliette was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Juliette organized very rapidly on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and a circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Juliette.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Juliette will move through an environment very favorable for intensification.  Juliette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Juliette is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next day or two.  Juliette is likely to strengthen into a hurricane within 12 hours and it could be a major hurricane within 48 hours.