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Tropical Storm Mindy Forms near Florida Panhandle

Tropical Storm Mindy formed near the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 86.3°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. Mindy was moving toward the northeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Steinhatchee River, Florida.

A surface low pressure system spun up quickly near the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Mindy. More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Mindy. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. NOAA buoy 42039 reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 m.p.h. (83 km/h) at 4:40 p.m. EDT. The buoy also reported a surface pressure of 1007.8 mb.

Tropical Storm Mindy could strengthen a little during the next few hours before it makes landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida. Mindy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mindy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will limit potential intensification.

The upper level low will steer Tropical Storm Mindy quickly toward the northeast during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mindy will make landfall on the coast near Port St. Joe, Florida on Wednesday evening. Mindy will move more toward the east-northeast on Thursday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Tropical Storm Mindy will produce gusty winds along the coast of Northwest Florida. Mindy could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for parts of northern Florida. Southerly winds on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Mindy will push waves toward the coast and some beach erosion is likely.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Larry moved closer to Bermuda on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 28.9°N and longitude 59.2°W which put it about 405 miles (655 km) southeast of Bermuda. Larry was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Depression Ida Brings Rain and Storms to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Depression Ida brought rain and thunderstorms to the southeast U.S. on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 90.3°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north-northwest of Jackson, Mississippi. Ida was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Former Hurricane Ida weakened to a tropical depression over Mississippi on Monday afternoon. Even though the speed of the wind circulating around Ida decreased, Tropical Depression Ida was still dropping locally heavy rain and generating a few tornadoes over the southeast U.S. Thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Ida were dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, Alabama, northwest Florida and northwestern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for all of those places. Tornadoes were reported in southeastern Mississippi, and southwestern and central Alabama.

Electricity was still out in all of New Orleans. Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Depression Ida’s circulation were still pushing water toward the coast. Those winds were blowing to near tropical storm force in some locations. A weather station at Fort Morgan, Alabama was reporting a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The water levels had decreased along the coast, but the persistent southerly winds were preventing the water levels from returning to normal. The water levels should continue to decrease when Tropical Depression Ida moves farther away from the coast.

Tropical Depression Ida will move northeast during the next 72 hours. The center of Ida will cross Tennessee on Tuesday. Ida could be over West Virginia on Wednesday and it could reach the east coast of the U.S. on Thursday. Tropical Depression Ida will continue to drop locally heavy rain over the eastern U.S. The circulation around Ida will interact with a cold front moving slowly south toward the Ohio River. The interaction between Ida and the cold front could enhance rainfall over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Flash Flood Watches are in effect across the region from Tennessee to New Jersey.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Julian made a transition to an extratropical cyclone west of the Azores on Monday morning and Tropical Storm Kate developed east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 50.9°W which put it about 805 miles (1295 km) east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Kate was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Grace Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Tropical Storm Grace brought wind and rain to Jamaica on Tuesday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 77.5°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Montego Bay, Jamaica. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas and Camaguey. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cinefuegos, Matanzas, Pinar del Rio and Isla de la Juventud.

The center of Tropical Storm Grace was moving along the northern coast of Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon. Grace was causing gusty winds over Jamaica and it was also dropping heavy rain. Tropical Storm Grace strengthened earlier on Tuesday as it approached Jamaica. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Grace. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) on the eastern side of Grace. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing mostly at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Grace will move across Jamaica during the next few hours. Grace could reach the Cayman Islands early on Wednesday. Grace could approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm Grace is not likely to strengthen during the next few hours while the center of circulation is near the northern coast of Jamaica. Grace will move through an environment favorable for intensification after it moves west of Jamaica. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge centered near Florida. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grace’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Grace could strengthen to a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A period of rapid intensification could occur if an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms at the center of Grace.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was strengthening south of Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 33.4°N and longitude 84.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Atlanta, Georgia. Fred was moving toward the north-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 64.3°W which put it about 143 miles (215 km) south-southeast of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida near Cape San Blas on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 85.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Stienhatchee River, Florida.

The National Hurricane Center stated that Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida near Cape San Blas, which is about 25 miles (40 km) west of Apalachicola. The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 994 mb. Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of northwest Florida and southeast Alabama. There were reports of flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Fred was also causing a storm surge along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico where the wind was pushing the water toward the shore. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will be over northern Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Fred could be over West Virginia by Wednesday. Tropical Storm Fred will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland. However, Fred will move through a very moist environment and it will drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Rain will spread over western Georgia on Monday evening. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for parts of northwest Florida, southeast Alabama, western and northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause sporadic power outages as it moves inland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was dropping heavy rain on parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and former Tropical Depression Eight strengthened to Tropical Storm Henri southeast of Bermuda.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 72.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas and Camaguey. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of Haiti and for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cinefuegos, Matanzas and Isla de la Juventud.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 62.9°W which put it about 145 miles (2305 km) southeast of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Fred Strengthens on Approach to Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened as it approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday morning. At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 28.7°N and longitude 85.6°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane sampling Tropical Storm Fred on Monday morning found that Fred was intensifying. Satellite and radar images showed that Tropical Storm Fred was developing a structure that is typical of tropical storms. Radar images also showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the center of Fred and a small eye might be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Fred continued to be asymmetrical. The strong thunderstorms were around the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were also in the eastern half of Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds in the much of western half of Fred were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will make landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida between Apalachicola and Panama City in a few hours. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida. Thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred could produce tornadoes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was passing south of Hispaniola and Tropical Depression Eight was slowly getting better organized east of Bermuda.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 70.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Jamaica.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 62.8°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (505km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Fred Gets a Little Stronger

Tropical Storm Fred got a little stronger on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Panama City, Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened gradually on Sunday night. Upper level divergence pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 999 mb. The decrease in pressure generated more force and the wind speed increased to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Fred remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Fred. The strongest winds were also occurring on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of Fred. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday afternoon. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Grace weakened to a tropical depression as it passed south of Puerto Rico and Tropical Depression Eight formed east-northeast of Bermuda. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 33.2°N and longitude 62.7°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Possible Development near Southeast U.S.

A low pressure system could develop near the coast of the Southeast U.S. during the next 48 hours. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of a developing low pressure system currently designated as Invest 90L was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Brunswick, Georgia. It was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1017 mb.

Early morning visible satellite images appeared to show that a low pressure system was forming along a nearly stationary front off the coast of the southeast U.S. More thunderstorms were forming in the developing low pressure system and some rotation was evident in satellite loops. Thunderstorms appeared to be organizing into bands. The southern end of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly that were blowing across the top of the developing low pressure system. Those winds were causing moderated vertical wind shear. The upper level winds were also inhibiting the development of thunderstorms on the western side of the developing low pressure system.

The low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The upper level trough will move northeast of the low pressure system on Saturday and the upper level winds will weaken. An upper level low east of the Bahamas could enhance upper level divergence to the southeast of the developing low pressure system. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 30% that a tropical cyclone forms during the next 48 hours. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate the system on Saturday afternoon, if necessary.

Tropical Storm Elsa Prompts Warnings for East Coast

Tropical Storm Elsa prompted the issuance of warnings and watches for the East Coast of the U.S. on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Savannah, Georgia. Elsa was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Great Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was moving across eastern Georgia on Wednesday night. Heavy rain was spreading across South Carolina. Rainbands on the eastern side of Elsa’s circulation were producing winds to tropical storm force over the Atlantic Ocean. NOAA buoy 41008 at Grays Reef reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa was still well defined. A distinct low pressure system was evident on the surface map, radar and satellite displays. Storms on the eastern side of Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across South Carolina on Thursday morning and North Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Elsa could be over eastern Virginia on Thursday evening and near Long Island by Friday morning. Even though the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will be over land for another 18 to 24 hours, bands on the eastern side of the circulation could produce tropical storm force winds over the Atlantic Ocean and along the East Coast of the U.S. Elsa will also drop locally heavy rain over South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Gusty winds and heavy rain could cause sporadic power outages. Heavy rain could also cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Elsa Makes Landfall in Florida

Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall on the coast of north Florida on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 83.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Perry, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook New Jersey including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County, Florida about 20 miles southwest of Perry around 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. Elsa weakened from a hurricane to a strong tropical storm before it made landfall. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa dropped heavy rain over Florida. Rain was beginning to spread over southern Georgia. Gusty winds caused power outages in parts of Florida. Elsa caused a minor storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa will weaken steadily during the next 48 hours while the center moves farther inland. Elsa will be steered toward the northeast during the next few days by an upper level trough over the Great Lakes. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move over southern Georgia on Wednesday night. Elsa could be over South Carolina on Thursday morning and it could be over eastern Virginia by Thursday night. Elsa could strengthen back to a tropical storm if the center moves over the Atlantic Ocean later this week.

Tropical Storm Elsa will continue to drop locally heavy rain over northern Florida during the next few hours. Heavy rain will spread over southern Georgia, South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds could cause sporadic power outages. There could be enough low level wind shear in stronger rainbands to produce tornadoes. When Tropical Storm Elsa gets closer to the East Coast of the U.S., southeasterly winds will blow water toward the coast. Those winds will cause water levels to rise along the coast

Elsa Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 83.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Flamingo to Egmont Key and from the Steinhatchee River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, and Ft. Myers. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened gradually throughout the day on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Elsa. Storms near near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. The distribution of thunderstorms around Hurricane Elsa remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Elsa.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to continue to decrease. Hurricane Elsa could intensify a little more on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass just to the west of Tampa on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa could make landfall near Cedar Key on Wednesday. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. After the center of Elsa moves north of Tampa, southwesterly winds will push water into Tampa Bay which could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters). Hurricane Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) along other parts of the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near Cedar Key when the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in Florida and southeastern Georgia.